Cappers Free Week 7 NFL Picks Online
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Posted on 10/19/2007 5:41:51 PM
NFL Free Picks Week 7
Baltimore Ravens (4-2) vs. Buffalo Bills (1-4)
Sunday, October 21st — Ralph Wilson Stadium, Buffalo – 1:00pm EST
Opening NFL Line: Baltimore -3 (35)
The Bills return to action after having the bye week to mull over their heartbreaking loss to the Dallas Cowboys in Week 5. With only one victory in the books, the Bills face a stiff challenge when they face the Baltimore Ravens who have the advantage in almost every statistical category.
Baltimore was having trouble pulling away from opponents in games. Until their 22-3 win against St. Louis last week, Their three previous wins saw them win by an average of 4.3 points. They allow good teams to hang around in games, giving anyone a chance to win. They lack any offensive finish, and have had immense trouble scoring this season.
Defensively, the Bills are a great team. They have the speed and discipline to overwhelm this slow, lumbering offensive line with their athleticism, and the corners can be vultures. Kyle Boller will face a Buffalo defense that allows a league worst 421.4 yards per game and surrenders 23.6 points per game.
The Ravens make a lot of mistakes, and the Bills are coming off a bye week where Trent Edwards was formally groomed in to the number one spot. The Bills will keep this one behind a stiff defense and steady play from Edwards and Lynch. Take the Bills in what is sure to be a low scoring affair. NFL Free Pick: Baltimore 12 Buffalo 14
Arizona Cardinals (3-3) vs. Washington Redskins (3-2)
Sunday, October 21st — FedEx Field, Washington — 1:00pm EST
Opening NFL Line: Washington -7 (37)
A healthy Kurt Warner starting at quarterback is enough to make a betting investor cringe. An injured Kurt Warner potentially starting at quarterback is enough to make a Cardinals fan vomit with rage. And I won’t even get started with Tim Rattay.
The Redskins have the third best defense in the league, keeping opponents to 13.8 points per game and 259.4 total yards per game. They also do an exceptional job of controlling the clock behind a solid running game fueled by the resurgent Clinton Portis.
The Cardinals are always a sexy underdog because of Larry Fitzgerald’s game breaking ability. But Arizona is one of the worst road teams in the league. In their last twenty-two road games, they have only managed to win five. That makes the Redskins a safe bet to win in FedEx Field this Sunday. Jason Campbell is steadily inching closer to becoming the star quarterback he was projected to be. NFL Free Pick: Arizona 13 Washington 21
San Francisco 49ers (2-3) vs. New York Giants (4-2)
Sunday, October 21st — Giants Stadium, New York — 1:00pm EST
Opening NFL Line: New York Giants -10 (40)
The Giants are a scary team to bet on. Despite being 4-2 ATS, there is something about Plaxico’s ankle and Eli Manning’s steady history of inconsistency that makes you want to shy away from them. The Niners have two excellent corners in Walt Harris and Nate Clements that could give Eli Manning fits on Sunday.
But the Niners offensive woes are depressing. As a general rule of thumb, you never ever put your betting dollars in the hands of Trent Dilfer. Vernon Davis returns this week, but has he seriously done anything to warrant any attention? Nope. The Niners only manage 203.2 yards per game total offensively and should not be trusted.
The Giants are the hottest team in the NFC, and Eli Manning is showing calm and decisive decision making. The Giants average 230.3 yards per game through the air. They have three strong runners in Ward, Jacobs and Droughns who help the Giants maintain 128.8 yards per game on the ground.
The Niners defense can keep them in any game, but their offense is anemic. The safe bet is with the Giants in this one, but they have to prove that they can be consistent week in and week out before you make any long-term investments in our NFL futures with them. NFL Free Pick: San Francisco 12 NYG 28
Atlanta Falcons (1-5) vs. New Orleans Saints (1-4)
Sunday, October 21st — Superdome, New Orleans — 1:00pm EST
Opening NFL Line: New Orleans -9.5 (42.5)
Are the Saints really back? Last week they marched all over the flat Seahawks in a 28-17 victory that saw Reggie Bush run, catch and scamper his way to 141 total yards. Drew Brees finally put a good game together with 246 yards and two touchdowns with zero picks.
And buckle your seat belts, ladies and gentleman! Byron Leftwich is starting for the Atlanta Falcons. The man with the worst throwing motion in the league is getting the nod over Joey Harrington and will hopefully jumpstart the Atlanta offense. Atlanta’s betting faithful should not get their hopes up.
New Orleans gets to come back to the comforts of home and beat up on a listless Falcons team that they crushed twice last year. This seems like a steep line to take considering nobody knows how good Leftwich will be, but when the New Orleans play well at home, they are virtually unstoppable. Bet on the Saints as they run the score on a hapless Falcons defense that allows 21.8 points per game. NFL Free Pick: Atlanta 17 New Orleans 28
New England Patriots (6-0) vs. Miami Dolphins (0-6)
Sunday, October 21st — Dolphins Stadium, Miami — 1:00pm EST
Opening NFL Line: New England -14 (50.5)
Why are we even having this conversation? The Patriots remain undefeated straight up and against the spread, while the Dolphins are heading in the exact opposite direction. Cam Cameron is still looking for his first win as a head coach, and the odds in our NFL futures indicates he may not see that win this season. The abysmal Dolphins defense gets lit up for 30.3 points per game.
That is not a good sign considering the Patriots lead the league with 38.3 points per game. Tom Brady and Uncle Bill are putting on a clinic in football domination, and the rest of the NFL. Unless Larry Csonka goes “Tanya Harding” on Tom Brady in an effort to preserve the 1972 Dolphins as they only undefeated team, the Dolphins do not stand a chance. Don’t get sucked in by the fact the Dolphins have always played the Patriots stiffly. This is a new Patriots team, and the Dolphins suck. NFL Free Pick: New England 41 Miami 10
Tennessee Titans (3-2) vs. Houston Texans (3-3)
Sunday, October 21st — Reliant Stadium, Houston — 1:00pm EST
Opening NFL Line: Tennessee -1 (38.5)
If Kerry Collins plays in place of the injured Vince Young (Madden Curse, anyone?) then you can say goodbye to the Titans chances of winning this game. Regardless, this game is going to be ugly. The Texans and Titans both have strong defenses that can cause their opponents to make costly mistakes. But if Vince plays, this is a game the Titans can win because Vince Young thrives when it gets ugly on the pitch.
Houston has a problem because Andre Johnson’s knee is healing slower than expected. Without him, the Texans have only managed to average 260.8 yards per game. Matt Schaub is a solid quarterback, but he has absolutely no weapons. This is a stay away game, but if you are feeling frisky the Texans are the safer bet.
The Titans are one of the best rushing teams in the league with 141.8 yards per game and Houston gives up 116.8 yards per game. But the Texans front-four are gelling nicely and Mario Williams is beginning to show the world why he was taken number one overall. If Vince Young plays, the Texans will have to contend with his superhuman abilities, but Kerry Collins looks like he will start meaning that Houston will have no problems this weekend. NFL Free Pick: Tennessee 10 Houston 17
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-2) vs. Detroit Lions (3-2)
Sunday, October 21st — Ford Field, Detroit — 1:00pm EST
Opening NFL Line: Detroit -2 (43)
Here we go again. A couple weeks ago, Ken Wisenhunt and Russ Grimm used all their insider information on Pittsburgh to pull off a huge upset. Now the Bucs sail north to Detroit to face Rod Marinelli, a coach that helped build their stout defense. If anyone outside of the Bucs organization knows how to expose this defense, it’s Marinelli.
Despite this, Tampa matches up very well against Detroit. The Bucs give up 119.3 yards on the ground defensively, but their passing defense is the eighth best in the league with only 197.8 passing yards against. Detroit is useless when it comes to rushing the football so that will put the game in Kitna’s hands, and Tampa is a team that plays smart cover-2. Kitna’s mistakes will turn in to points on the board for the road dogs.
Tampa has won the last four meetings with Detroit, and the return of Jeff Garcia to the Lions can not be overshadowed. He is playing with swagger and confidence, and has zero interceptions on the year. Bet on Garcia as Galloway runs right best this bumbling secondary. NFL Free Pick: Tampa Bay 24 Detroit 17
New York Jets (1-5) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (1-4)
Sunday, October 21st — Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati — 4:05pm EST
Opening NFL Line: Cincinnati -6 (46)
The Jets have one of the worst passing defenses in the league. They give up 243.3 yards through the air. Carson Palmer is going to tear the Jets secondary to bits. The Bengals are second in passing offense with 284.8 yards per game.
The Bengals defense is not much better, but the Jets have no punch on offense. Pennington has looked dreadful this season, though Thomas Jones finally put together a noteworthy performance. Mangini will lean on Jones against the Bengals, who give up 145.8 yards on the ground.
But at the end of the day, the Jets will simply not be able to keep up with Carson Palmer on the scoreboard. Pennington is on the hot seat and is slowly losing his grip on the starting job. The Jets are calling for his head. The smart betting investor should be calling for a Bengals outright win this Sunday. NFL Free Pick: NYJ 13 Cincinnati 27
Chicago Bears (2-4) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (2-3)
Sunday, October 21st — Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia — 4:15pm EST
Opening NFL Line: Philadelphia -6 (42.5)
This Eagles team is pissing me off. The only betting trend that matters to me with the Eagles is that they can beat bad football teams. And the Bears are bad. Philadelphia is ninth in the league with 352.4 yards per game offensively and averages a solid 20.0 yards per game.
The only reliable threat on the Bears is Devin Hester who exploded for two touchdowns last weekend. The Chicago offense still looks atrocious. The running game is terrible and only managed 82.7 yards per game and the passing game gets a mediocre 205.0 yards per game. The defense, which was the reason this team used to win football games, has been ravaged by injuries.
The Bears are also 1-5 ATS, which makes them absolutely untrustworthy to the betting investor. The safe bet is on the Eagles who will play in front of a rabid home crowd. Brian Westbrook and the Eagles rushing attack averages 131.0 yards per game, and he will run circles around a depleted Bears defense. NFL Free Pick: Chicago 13 Philadelphia 24
St. Louis Rams (0-6) vs. Seattle Seahawks (3-3)
Sunday, October 21st — Qualcomm Stadium — 4:15pm EST
Opening NFL Line: Seattle -9 (40)
The Seahawks are a bad football team. Shaun Alexander runs with little to no power, and the rushing attack has only managed 91.3 yards per game because of it. It doesn’t help matters that he lost his trusty fullback, Mac Strong. Matt Hasslebeck and the Seattle passing game is averaging 239.5 yards per game, but still doesn’t strike fear in to anybody.
Thankfully for the Seahawks, they face one of the worst teams in the league. But the Rams are getting Marc Bulger back. Torry Holt must be insanely happy about that. The Rams aerial assault has only managed 196.0 yards per game. The offensive line is tattered, but Bulger is smart enough to take advantage of the weak Seattle secondary.
Last year, both games were decided by two points. The Rams won’t get a win playing on the road in Seattle, but nine points was obviously set when Gus Ferrotte was expected to start. Bulger is back, healthy and read to sling that ball to Holt, which is enough reason to bet on St. Louis with the points. NFL Free Pick: St Louis 17 Seattle 20
Minnesota Vikings (2-3) vs. Dallas Cowboys (5-1)
Sunday, October 21st — Texas Stadium, Dallas — 4:15pm EST
Opening NFL Line: Dallas -10 (47)
Adrian Peterson put the league on notice last week when he steamrolled through the Bears defense for an astounding 224 yards. He will not enjoy that kind of success against a ferocious Dallas front-seven. The Cowboys will be looking for a big win after getting chewed up by the Patriots last week. Despite that, they are still the best team in the NFC and the Vikings have absolutely no passing game.
Tavaris Jackson is progressing slowly and lacks the tools to expose a Dallas secondary that is a glaring weakness on this otherwise formidable team. Dallas gives up 232.8 yards through the sky, but they only surrender 79.7 yards per game.
The Minnesota secondary is the worst in the league, giving up 288.4 yards per game. Their stout rushing defense is kind of overrated because everyone just throws against the Vikings. The smart betting investor will forget the hiccup last weekend against the Patriots and reinstall their faith in America’s team. Tony Romo and T.O are going to kill this team. NFL Free Pick: Minnesota 14 Dallas 38
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