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Posted on 11/23/2007 8:39:45 AM
By: CappersPicks.com NFL Football Handicapping Staff
NFL Football Betting – San Francisco at Arizona
The San Francisco Forty-Niners (2-8 SU, 2-7-1 ATS) simply can’t master the concept of offensive football. And with their head coach under the gun, they will try to manage something positive on Sunday at 4:05 PM ET when they travel to University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale, AZ (grass) to take on the Arizona Cardinals (5-5 SU, 6-3-1 ATS), who come into the day one game off the pace in the NFC West. In the Top Sportsbooks NFL football betting odds, the Cards are listed at -10.5, with the over/under posted at 37.5 points.
Here are some NFL football betting trends as they relate to this matchup:
* SF is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games
* SF is 1-4 SU & ATS in its last five road games
* ARIZ is 12-4-1 ATS in its last 17 games
* ARIZ has played 12 of its last 16 games OVER the total
* ARIZ has covered five of its last seven home games
* ARIZ has played four of its last six home games OVER the total
* The road team has covered the last five meetings
* ARIZ is 3-1-1 ATS in the last five meetings
* ARIZ has won four of the last five meetings SU
* Six of the last eight meetings have gone OVER the total
The Niners lived up to their name on Sunday, scoring just nine points against St. Louis (with 234 yards actually UPPING their average). That’s the same old story for this team, which can not get out of its own way on offense. Trent Dilfer gets another start in place of injured Alex Smith. But it doesn’t matter who starts at quarterback. There is no mystery here – the offensive line doesn’t do the job, the wide receivers, with a former college QB (Arnaz Battle) the leader, pose almost no threat, and opponents have the freedom to close in on running back Frank Gore (3.9 ypc). With just 60 points scored over the last seven games, how much does the other team have to score to win? To cover?
The Cardinals got two TD’s on interception returns from Antrel Rolle last week that helped them beat Cincinnati, but that doesn’t mean Kurt Warner (60%, 11 TD’s) needs all of that assistance to do his job. Edgerrin James has not had a spectacular year (3.6 ypc), but with 730 yards, he’s doing a lot of work and fulfilling one of coach Ken Whisenhunt’s missions – to make teams keenly aware of the balance in this offense. The new game plan is to throw shorter, which could free up star wideouts Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin for long gainers eventually, and San Francisco, which averages just under 26 minutes of possession time per contest, should play right into that Cardinal game plan.
The 49ers have scored just ten offensive touchdowns in ten games. As if we needed to offer some perspective, New England had eight TD’s in one game against Buffalo last week. Even in the season opener, when the Niners scored a 20-17 win against an Arizona team quarterbacked by Matt Leinart, San Fran gained just 194 yards (the average is now 221 ypg). Coach Mike Nolan is now under some fire from ownership, which has stated the desire to bring in a “strong GM” next season. When the best thing you can say is that San Francisco hasn’t lost nine games in a row since 1978, you know you’re making a weak case for the visitor here.
We won’t go farther with that case. We’ll lay the 10.5 points with Arizona, the big favorite in the Top Sportsbooks NFL football betting odds.
NFL betting odds: ARIZONA -10.5, Total 37.5
NOTABLE STAT: San Francisco has scored 60 points in its last seven games (8.6 ppg)
KEY NFL FOOTBALL BETTING TREND: The Niners have covered just one of their last eight games
NFL Free Pick: JAY’S PLAY: ARIZONA ** (Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)
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