Free Pick: Blues vs. Stars Odds
Looking for St. Louis Blues vs. Dallas Stars free NHL predictions? NHL betting sees the Blues taking on the Stars on 10/2 at American Airlines Center, in Dallas. This free NHL pick is based on matchup analysis and documented handicapping data tracked by CappersPicks since 2004, with a focus on identifying the strongest betting angle for this Blues Stars matchup.
2026 NHL Handicapping – St. Louis Blues vs Dallas Stars
St. Louis Blues vs. Dallas Stars
Date: Oct 02, 2026
Time: 9:00 PM ET
Venue: American Airlines Center in Dallas, TX
NHL Moneyline Odds: Blues +157 | Stars -186 (Bet Now!)
Today’s NHL Puck Line Betting Odds: Blues +1.5 | Stars -1.5
NHL Hockey Gambling Total: O/U: 5.5
Here’s why I’m backing an UNDER bet below in my Blues Stars free pick & gambling prediction for this matchup.
Blues vs. Stars Gameday
The St. Louis Blues open the 2026-27 regular season Friday night against the Dallas Stars at American Airlines Center. Jim Montgomery begins his third season behind the St. Louis bench, while Glen Gulutzan enters his second season since returning to Dallas.
Puck drop is set for 8 PM CT and 9 PM ET on TNT, truTV and HBO Max.
St. Louis arrives with a noticeably different forward group. Mason McTavish and Connor McMichael were added during the offseason, while Robert Thomas takes over as captain after leading the Blues in scoring for three consecutive seasons.
The changes give Montgomery considerably more flexibility through the middle.
Nothing eases a remodeled lineup into the season quite like opening in Dallas. Very considerate scheduling.
The Stars require far fewer introductions.
Jason Robertson, Wyatt Johnston, Mikko Rantanen, Roope Hintz, Matt Duchene and Miro Heiskanen remain part of a group that won 50 games last season. Dallas enters another year with Stanley Cup expectations and very little interest in pretending otherwise.
St. Louis gets no easing-in period.
Friday begins a three-game road trip that continues Saturday in Colorado before the Blues visit Chicago. Opening with a Central Division road back-to-back is a fairly efficient way to find out whether those new combinations are ready.
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St. Louis Blues vs. Dallas Stars Odds & Last 5
The opening odds make Dallas the home favorite. The Stars are -186 on the moneyline, while St. Louis is +157.
Dallas is -1.5 at +138 on the puck line, with the Blues +1.5 at -168.
The opening total is 5.5, with the Over priced at -123 and the Under at -102.
These teams already saw each other twice during the preseason.
Dallas won both meetings 2-1. The second came at American Airlines Center, where Casey DeSmith stopped 30 shots as the Stars again limited St. Louis to a single goal.
Useful information, sure, but September hockey still comes with enough experimental line combinations to require a warning label.
Dallas also controlled last season’s regular-season series, winning three of four meetings.
The Stars have now taken six of the last seven regular-season matchups between these Central Division rivals. That familiarity carries more weight than trying to turn a four-game exhibition schedule into advanced mathematics.
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Stars Stats
Dallas returns one of the NHL’s deepest offensive groups.
The Stars averaged 3.33 goals per game last season and converted 28.6 percent of their power-play opportunities, the second-best rate in the league. Robertson led the club with 96 points and 45 goals.
Johnston also scored 45 times and finished with 86 points.
Rantanen gives Dallas another elite playmaker capable of creating off the rush or during extended zone time. Add Hintz and Duchene through the middle, and comfortable defensive matchups become rather difficult to locate.
The Stars were equally dependable without the puck.
Dallas allowed 2.71 goals per game, the second-best mark in the NHL. Heiskanen remains the centerpiece of a blue line capable of getting the puck moving without turning every neutral-zone turnover into a five-alarm emergency.
That versatility matters.
Dallas can attack when opponents give it room, but it doesn’t need to exchange odd-man rushes for 60 minutes to generate offense. Gulutzan can change gears without asking his lineup to become something it isn’t.
Dallas has plenty of horsepower, but apparently nobody told them playing defense was supposed to be optional.
Special teams create another headache.
The Stars’ power play can punish careless penalties quickly, which puts extra pressure on St. Louis to stay disciplined. Giving this collection of scorers additional ice and an extra skater seems like an unnecessarily generous Opening Night gift.
Blues Stats
St. Louis finished 37-33-12 last season and missed the playoffs, leaving the front office with an obvious need for more offensive support.
The Blues averaged 2.80 goals per game and converted only 17.6 percent of their power plays. Their penalty kill wasn’t much better at 76.7 percent.
Those aren’t exactly refrigerator-door numbers.
McTavish and McMichael were brought in to help change the equation. McTavish produced 41 points with Anaheim last season, while McMichael had 46 for Washington before arriving in the trade that sent Jordan Kyrou to the Capitals.
Montgomery has experimented with McTavish centering McMichael and Buchnevich, giving the Blues a legitimate second scoring line behind Thomas.
There is already talent around the new captain.
Thomas finished with 64 points in 64 games, while Snuggerud produced 21 goals and 51 points as a rookie. Holloway added another strong second half, giving St. Louis several forwards capable of carrying offense rather than asking one line to solve everything.
The blue line opens the season with more uncertainty.
Logan Mailloux and Tyler Tucker begin the year on injured reserve. St. Louis claimed Justin Barron and recalled Adam Jiricek, adding depth behind Broberg, Parayko, Fowler and Carlo while Montgomery works through the early absences.
The Blues don’t need that group to be spectacular Friday.
Keeping exits clean, limiting second chances and staying out of the penalty box would qualify as a productive night’s work against this Dallas lineup.
Blues vs. Stars Goalie Matchup
Dallas enters another season with Jake Oettinger at the top of its goalie depth chart.
Oettinger went 35-12-6 with a 2.59 GAA last season, although his .899 save percentage was the lowest of his NHL career. He has started at least 53 games in four consecutive seasons and is again expected to carry the bulk of the workload.
Casey DeSmith remains a quality second option.
He finished 15-8-6 with a 2.43 GAA and .907 save percentage last season. His strong preseason work gives Gulutzan little reason to worry when Oettinger gets a night off.
St. Louis enters with a more interesting competition.
Joel Hofer went 24-13-5 with a 2.61 GAA, .910 save percentage and six shutouts last season. After the Olympic break, he went 12-2-2 with a .933 save percentage and 2.04 GAA.
Jordan Binnington is coming off a much tougher year, finishing with a 3.33 GAA and .873 save percentage.
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That creates a legitimate workload decision for Montgomery rather than an automatic pecking order.
Hofer has earned the opportunity for more starts, while Binnington gives St. Louis an experienced alternative if Montgomery prefers a true tandem. No Friday starter needs to be declared until the club actually makes that call.
Dallas has the clearer long-term hierarchy.
St. Louis may have the more interesting early-season decision, and Hofer’s performance last year gives the Blues reason to believe the crease can be a strength rather than something they have to survive.
St. Louis Blues vs. Dallas Stars bottom line: Opening Night gives Dallas continuity and St. Louis a first real test of whether its offseason changes can translate immediately against a familiar division rival.
St. Louis Blues vs. Dallas Stars Hockey Betting Trends
- The Dallas Stars won their last four preseason games, all by one or two goals.
- In those four preseason games, the Stars kept their opponents to 1 goal each time.
- Plus, the Stars have not scored more than 2 goals in any of their last four preseason games.
- The St. Louis Blues have lost three of their last four preseason games by a single goal.
- Also, the Blues have not scored more than 2 goals in any of their last four preseason games.
- In their last four preseason games, the Blues have failed to score a power-play goal.
Blues Stars Free Pick: Under 5.5
Here is my Blues Stars free pick: I’m taking Under 5.5. Opening Night usually comes with extra energy, occasionally extra chaos and always a few people pretending preseason chemistry is transferable currency. I’m betting this matchup settles down before it turns into a six-goal race.
Dallas has no reason to open the season recklessly. The Stars have enough skill to create offense without constantly trading rushes, and St. Louis is integrating several new pieces up front. That gives me a game where patience should be considerably more useful than trying to win October in the first 10 minutes.
It’s Game 1 of 84, so perhaps we can postpone the firewagon hockey until everyone learns each other’s last names.
The scheduling spot helps too. St. Louis starts a road back-to-back and heads to Colorado on Saturday, so Montgomery has every reason to manage this game rather than turn Friday into 60 minutes of track practice.
At 5.5, I’m obviously asking for decent goaltending and a special-teams night that doesn’t get stupid. But the price gives me enough to work with, and I see more value in a controlled Central Division opener than betting on instant offensive fireworks. Give me Blues-Stars Under 5.5.
Today’s NHL Free Pick
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Dallas Stars on X
HOURS TILL PUCK DROP: pic.twitter.com/0ofi227f0J
— Dallas Stars (@DallasStars) October 2, 2026
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