Free NCAAB Pick: Flames vs. Patriots Odds
Looking for Liberty Flames vs. George Mason Patriots Free NCAA picks & NCAA odds? NCAAB betting sees the Flames taking on the Patriots on 3/17 at EagleBank Arena, in Fairfax, VA. This free NCAA basketball pick is based on matchup analysis and documented handicapping data tracked by CappersPicks since 2004, with a focus on identifying the strongest betting angle for this Flames Patriots matchup.
2026 NCAAB Handicapping – Liberty Flames vs George Mason Patriots
(25-7) Liberty Flames vs. George Mason Patriots (23-9)
Date: Mar 17, 2026
Time: 6:00 PM ET
Venue: EagleBank Arena in Fairfax, VA
NCAAB Moneyline Odds: Flames +182 | Patriots -235 (Bet Now!)
Today’s NCAAB Spread Betting Odds: Flames +5.5 | Patriots -5.5
NCAAB Basketball Gambling Total: O/U: 144.5
Here’s why I’m backing a Liberty ATS bet below in my Flames Patriots free pick & gambling prediction for this matchup.
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Flames vs. Patriots Gameday
As the NIT Tournament heats up, the Liberty Flames and George Mason Patriots are set to meet at EagleBank Arena in Fairfax, VA. This postseason matchup is scheduled for Tuesday, March 17, 2026, at 6:00 PM ET, and fans can watch the action live on ESPN2.
Liberty enters with a strong 25-7 overall record this season. The Flames are coming off an 8-point loss to Missouri State, but players like Zach Cleveland continue to stand out with steady production.
That recent loss does not erase how efficient Liberty can be when its offense finds rhythm early.
George Mason comes in at 23-9 overall after dropping its recent game to St. Bonaventure by 6 points. Even so, the Patriots continue to lean on Jahari Long, who has remained one of their more reliable contributors.
Both teams enter this NIT matchup looking to extend their postseason run. With neither side carrying a national ranking, this game gives both programs a chance to prove themselves on a bigger stage.
It’s Liberty Flames vs. George Mason Patriots, hopefully we get a great matchup.
Liberty Flames vs. George Mason Patriots Odds & Last 5
Liberty enters this game as the underdog with a spread of +5.5. The Flames are coming off that 8-point loss to Missouri State, though Zach Cleveland’s play continues to give them a steady offensive presence.
George Mason holds the favorite role at -5.5 after falling by 6 points to St. Bonaventure in its most recent game. Jahari Long remains one of the key pieces for the Patriots and gives them a reliable scoring option.
Both teams have hit some bumps lately. Liberty also dropped a game to Louisiana Tech, while George Mason took losses to both St. Bonaventure and VCU.
That said, both teams have shown enough to make this a competitive NIT matchup. Tournament games often swing on shot-making and tempo.
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Patriots Stats
George Mason has shown mixed form lately. The Patriots scored only 57 points in their 6-point loss to St. Bonaventure, but right before that they broke out for 86 points in a strong win over Saint Louis.
Offensively, the Patriots average 73.3 points per game, ranking 281st nationally. Their field goal percentage sits at 47.5, which ranks 53rd, though they make only 6.4 three-pointers per game.
Defensively, George Mason allows 15.4 fouls per game, ranks low in steals at 5.0 per game, and averages only 3.0 blocks. Riley Allenspach had 12 points and 10 rebounds in the last game, while Jahari Long scored 21 points with 9 assists against Saint Louis.
Brayden O’Connor remains out, and Fatt Hill is uncertain with an ankle sprain.
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Flames Stats
Liberty brings a different offensive look into this matchup. The Flames average 78.2 points per game, ranking 138th nationally, but their 51.4 field goal percentage ranks 3rd and shows how efficient they can be.
Their three-point shooting is another major strength. Liberty makes 10.6 threes per game, ranking 33rd, and shoots 39.8% from beyond the arc, which ranks 19th.
Defensively, the Flames have some weaker spots. They average 6.3 steals and 3.4 blocks per game, both numbers sitting near the lower end nationally.
Zach Cleveland continues to be the key name to watch. He posted 20 points and 14 rebounds against Missouri State, even though Liberty came up short in that game.
Liberty Flames vs. George Mason Patriots bottom line: Liberty’s shooting efficiency gives the Flames real upset potential, but George Mason enters with the edge if the Patriots control the pace.
NCAA Stats
| Stat | Liberty | George Mason |
|---|---|---|
| Points Per Game | 78.2 (138th) | 73.3 (281st) |
| FG % | 51.4 (3rd) | 47.5 (53rd) |
| 3 Point FG% | 39.8 (19th) | 34.1 (211th) |
| 3 Point Attempts | 26.7 (101st) | 18.7 (411th) |
Liberty Flames vs. George Mason Patriots Basketball Betting Trends
- Liberty has a 100% SU record in their last 5 games.
- Additionally, the Flames are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games.
- Liberty has hit the Over in all of their last 3 games.
- The Patriots have a 100% SU record as favorites last season.
- Also, the Patriots are 3-0 ATS in their last 3 games.
- George Mason has hit the Over in their last 3 games.
Flames Patriots Free Pick: Liberty +5.5
Here is my Flames Patriots free pick: Liberty has been quietly rolling against the spread, covering four of its last five games while playing efficient basketball on offense.
That kind of stretch usually reflects strong shot selection and discipline.
The Flames rank near the top of the country in field goal percentage, which allows them to maximize scoring opportunities. Efficient teams tend to stay within striking distance.
George Mason has performed well as a favorite, yet their offensive production ranks near the bottom nationally. That lack of scoring punch can limit separation.
Because Liberty has also won five straight games outright, confidence and momentum clearly favor the underdog.
This matchup feels like a competitive game where the points matter more than the outcome.
The Patriots may control stretches defensively, but pulling away becomes difficult without consistent scoring runs. That dynamic benefits the team catching points.
Liberty’s ability to convert high-percentage looks keeps them in games even when tempo slows. Efficient offense travels well.
Overall grabbing +5.5 with a hot team provides a strong betting angle.
I’m taking Liberty plus the points. Ride the dog.
Today’s NCAAB Free Pick
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NCAAB Betting Tweet Of The Day
It all starts TONIGHT 🕰️#PatriotPressure pic.twitter.com/w5FCVZwsDU
— George Mason Men’s Basketball (@MasonMBB) March 17, 2026
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