Free NCAAB Pick: Redbirds vs. Flyers Odds
Looking for Illinois State Redbirds vs. Dayton Flyers Free NCAA picks & NCAA odds? NCAAB betting sees the Redbirds taking on the Flyers on 3/25 at UD Arena, in Dayton, OH. This free NCAA basketball pick is based on matchup analysis and documented handicapping data tracked by CappersPicks since 2004, with a focus on identifying the strongest betting angle for this Redbirds Flyers NIT Quarterfinals matchup.
2026 NCAAB Handicapping – Illinois State Redbirds vs Dayton Flyers
NIT Quarterfinals – (22-12) Illinois State Redbirds vs. Dayton Flyers (25-11)
Date: Mar 25, 2026
Time: 7:00 PM ET
Venue: UD Arena in Dayton, OH
NCAAB Moneyline Odds: Redbirds +210 | Flyers -286 (Bet Now!)
Today’s NCAAB Spread Betting Odds: Redbirds +6.5 | Flyers -6.5
NCAAB Basketball Gambling Total: O/U: 138.5
Here’s why I’m backing a Illinois State ATS bet below in my Redbirds Flyers free pick & gambling prediction for this matchup.
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Redbirds vs. Flyers Gameday
The Illinois State Redbirds take on the Dayton Flyers in this NIT Tournament matchup. The game will be played at UD Arena in Dayton, Ohio, giving the Flyers a clear home floor edge.
ESPN2 will carry the broadcast Wednesday night.
Illinois State comes in with a 22-12 overall record this season. They held their own in the Missouri Valley Conference with a 12-8 mark and have carried that form into postseason play.
They picked up wins over Presbyterian, Incarnate Word, and Cleveland State to get here.
Dayton enters at 25-11 on the season after navigating the Atlantic 10 with a 12-6 record. Their postseason included a strong win against Florida Atlantic before falling to Chattanooga. That loss still sits fresh heading into this spot.
Postseason games tighten up fast, and home court usually brings out Dayton’s best edge.
Both teams come in with something to prove in this bracket. Illinois State rides a three-game postseason winning streak into this one. Dayton looks to respond after its most recent loss and protect its home floor.
It’s Illinois State Redbirds vs. Dayton Flyers, and the setup points to a competitive tournament game.
Illinois State Redbirds vs. Dayton Flyers Odds & Last 5
The line leans toward Dayton with a -6.5 spread, showing the market’s respect for the home side. Illinois State checks in as the +6.5 underdog in this matchup. The moneyline lists Dayton at -286, while the Redbirds sit at +210.
Illinois State has built momentum with wins over Presbyterian and Cleveland State in recent action. Those results have helped stabilize their postseason run. Teams riding streaks often bring confidence into spots like this.
Dayton picked up a solid win over Florida Atlantic before taking a loss to Chattanooga.
That split result shows both their upside and inconsistency. Bounce-back efforts at home tend to be sharper.
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Flyers Stats
Dayton has taken a step forward offensively during the postseason. They are averaging 80.0 points per game, which ranks 25th overall. That is a noticeable jump from their 74.4 points per game during the regular season.
Their shooting numbers have also climbed in a big way. Dayton is hitting 51.9% from the field in the postseason, ranking 6th. Their effective field goal percentage sits at 60.6%, placing them among the top teams.
From beyond the arc, the Flyers continue to produce. They average 9.0 made threes per game, ranking 39th, while shooting 41.9% from deep, which ranks 14th. Perimeter shooting often swings tournament games.
Injuries remain something to watch heading into this matchup. Evan Dickey is listed as uncertain with an undisclosed issue.
Jaron McKie is out for the season following shoulder surgery, which affects depth at guard.
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Redbirds Stats
Illinois State has also delivered strong offensive numbers during the postseason. They are putting up 78.5 points per game, ranking 29th nationally. Their shot volume has increased to 62.5 attempts per game, placing them 40th.
The Redbirds have leaned heavily on their three-point attack. They average 11.5 made threes per game, ranking 17th, while attempting 34 per game, which ranks 8th. Volume shooting like that can create swings quickly.
Defensively, Illinois State has improved in key areas. They are averaging 6.5 steals per game, ranking 60th, and have reduced turnovers to 6.5 per game, which ranks 9th. Taking care of the ball matters in tight games.
Chase Walker’s status is still uncertain due to injury, which could impact rotation depth.
His availability will be important as they head into a road environment. Depth tends to get tested late in these matchups.
Illinois State Redbirds vs. Dayton Flyers bottom line: Dayton holds the home edge while Illinois State brings momentum from its postseason run.
NCAA Stats
| Stat | Illinois State | Dayton |
|---|---|---|
| Points Per Game | 78.5 (29th) | 80.0 (25th) |
| FG % | 41.6 (63rd) | 51.9 (6th) |
| 3 Point FG% | 33.8 (49th) | 41.9 (14th) |
| 3 Point Attempts | 34.0 (8th) | 21.5 (75th) |
Illinois State Redbirds vs. Dayton Flyers Basketball Betting Trends
- The Redbirds are 10-6 straight up as favorites.
- Dayton is 18-6 straight up when favored.
- Also, the Flyers have a 71.4% success rate against the spread as underdogs.
- Illinois State has covered the spread in 81.2% of their games as underdogs.
- Additionally, the Redbirds have gone under the total in their last 3 games.
- Dayton has hit the over in 80.0% of their last 10 games.
Redbirds Flyers Free Pick: Illinois State +6.5
Here is my Redbirds Flyers free pick: I’m taking the points with Illinois State because they’ve been strong in the underdog role. They’ve covered over 80 percent of those spots, which is not something you just ignore.
That kind of consistency matters.
Dayton wins games as a favorite, but covering has been a different story. Their defense has shown some cracks lately.
Underdogs that defend well and slow things down tend to stay inside numbers like this.
As a result, Illinois State’s recent focus on defense becomes a real factor here. They’ve gone under in three straight, which points to control.
That style can frustrate a team like Dayton and keep the margin tight. It doesn’t take much to stay within this range.
For that reason, Illinois State +6.5 is the play.
I’ll grab the points and expect a close game.
Today’s NCAAB Free Pick
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NCAAB Betting Tweet Of The Day
Gameday Threads ✈️🏀#GoFlyers pic.twitter.com/kHB9wX1Jj2
— Dayton Basketball (@DaytonMBB) March 25, 2026
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