Free Pick: Spurs vs. Thunder Odds
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2026 NBA Handicapping – San Antonio Spurs vs. OKC Thunder
(27-13) San Antonio Spurs vs. OKC Thunder (33-7)
Date: Jan 13, 2026
Time: 8:00 PM ET
Venue: Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK
NBA Moneyline Odds: Spurs +186 | Thunder -223 (Bet Now!)
Today’s NBA Point Spread Betting Odds: Spurs +6.5 | Thunder -6.5
NBA Basketball Gambling Total: O/U: 229.5
Here’s why I’m backing the underdog San Antonio in my Spurs Thunder free pick & gambling prediction for this matchup.
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Spurs vs. Thunder Gameday
A revenge match is on the NBA slate for Tuesday as the San Antonio Spurs will face the top-seeded OKC Thunder.
San Antonio enters this match having lost to the Minnesota Timberwolves 103-104 on Sunday. Victor Wembanyama was back in the starting rotation after coming off the bench since his return from injury.
All five starters plus Keldon Johnson scored in double figures, led by Wemb,y who dropped 29 points with seven rebounds and three steals.
OKC is coming off a 124-112 victory versus the Heat on Sunday. Six players scored in double figures, led by MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who offered 29 points, five rebounds, eight assists, a steal, and a block. Chet Holmgren delivered a double-double of 16 points and 10 rebounds while Jalen Williams scored 18.
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San Antonio Spurs vs. OKC Thunder Odds & Last 5
Last year, the Thunder won the season series two games to one over the Spurs. In this campaign, the squads were scheduled to play four times, but because of the NBA Cup, they’ll play five times in total. To date, the Spurs are dominating, up 3-0 in the series.
On the season, the Spurs hold the second seed with a 27-13 record, but have played closer to .500 since they beat the Thunder on Christmas. To wit, San Antonio is 4-5 since that big holiday win and has losses to lower-tier clubs like Utah, Portland, and Memphis. Following this game, the Spurs return home for a three-game stretch.
Meanwhile, OKC has won three in a row and is 7-2 since losing on Christmas. The Thunder maintain their top seed with a 33-7 record and have built their lead back to 5.5 games over the Spurs. Although the Thunder are winning, they’ve had to claw out victories and haven’t looked as dominant. After this match, OKC will hit the road for a four-game set.
OKC is favored by 6.5 points with an over/under of 229.5 points.
Spurs Stats
San Antonio ranks eighth offensively (116.6) and third defensively (111.2) while it is fifth in net rating (+5.4) and 14th in pace (100.97).
The West’s second seed averages 118.1 points per game while its opponents average 112.6 points. In terms of dimes and boards, San Antonio averages 25.8 (16th) and 46.7 (second), respectively.
San Antonio’s team leaders* are Victor Wembanyama, who is tops in scoring (24.3 points), rebounding (11.1), and blocks (2.8), while Stephon Castle leads the Spurs in assists (6.8) and De’Aaron Fox leads in steals (1.3).
As for perimeter shooting, the Spurs have six players shooting above the league average, but as a team, they shoot 34.6%.
*minimum 10 games played
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Thunder Stats
OKC ranks fifth (118.0) on offense and first on defense (105.4). Additionally, the Thunder hold the top-ranked net rating (+12.6) and run the 11th-ranked pace (101.50).
The NBA’s top team averages 121.4 points per game while its opponents average 108.4 points. In terms of dimes and boards, OKC averages 25.7 (17th) and 43.9 (18th), respectively.
OKC’s team leaders* are Shai Gilgeous-Alexander for scoring (31.9 points) as well as for assists (6.4), Isaiah Hartenstein for rebounds (10.4), Cason Wallace for steals (2.1), and Chet Holmgren for blocks (1.8).
As for the perimeter, six Thunder players shoot at least 35.5%, with the team shooting 36.0% overall.
*minimum 10 games
San Antonio Spurs vs. OKC Thunder bottom line:
While OKC is on track to have a record-breaking franchise season and are within reach of entering the upper echelon of season records, they still need to solve the Spurs. Sure, it’s not a great matchup, but the fact that OKC has only lost seven games, and three have been versus the Spurs, is disconcerting.
A few keys stand out from the prior three meetings that Mark Daigneault will need his troop to tweak if they want to win this contest. The Thunder weren’t successful at paint scoring and failed to turn over the Spurs. Look for that to be a focus in this outing.
San Antonio Spurs vs. OKC Thunder Basketball Betting Trends
- San Antonio is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games.
- The total has gone UNDER in 6 of San Antonio’s last 6 games.
- San Antonio is 12-6 SU in its last 18 games.
- Also, Oklahoma City is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
- The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Oklahoma City’s last 7 games against San Antonio.
- Additionally, Oklahoma City is 17-3 SU in its last 20 games at home.
Spurs Thunder Free Pick: Spurs +6.5
Here is my Spurs Thunder free pick. In the regular season, no game is a must-win until April, when teams are fighting for playoff seeding. That said, this is about as close to that narrative as OKC can get, given how the Spurs have manhandled them through the prior three meetings.
While the presence of Victor Wembanyama is a concern, arguably the more poignent point is dealing with the three Spurs guards who exposed OKC.
Timing is everything in sports, and one thing that might help OKC is the shooting struggles a few key Spurs have been dealing with since the team’s last meeting. Specifically, Stephon Castle is shooting 36.7% (effective field goal percentage) since then.
I didn’t think the Spurs would dominate the Thunder as completely as they have, and again, it might just be a terrible matchup for OKC, but it’s hard to ignore that fact.
Ultimately, I do think the Thunder will approach this game more like a playoff game and therefore expect them to pull out the win; however, I’ll take the points because I think it will be a close contest.
Today’s NBA Free Pick
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NBA Betting Tweet Of The Day
THREE. STRAIGHT. W’S.
Spurs make it 3 in a row vs. the Thunder.
The best plays from the three wins ⤵️ pic.twitter.com/61XEsfzwKd
— NBA (@NBA) December 25, 2025
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