Free Pick: Thunder vs. Grizzlies Odds
Looking for OKC Thunder vs. Memphis Grizzlies Free NBA predictions? NBA betting sees the Thunder taking on the Grizzlies on 1/9 at FedEx Forum in Memphis. Cappers Picks provides complimentary expert handicapping picks on all NBA basketball matchups all season long, so stay tuned for more FREE daily NBA predictions like this Thunder Grizzlies free pick.
2026 NBA Handicapping – OKC Thunder vs Memphis Grizzlies
(31-7) OKC Thunder vs. Memphis Grizzlies (16-21)
Date: Jan 9, 2026
Time: 8:00 PM ET
Venue: FedEx Forum, Memphis, TN
NBA Moneyline Odds: Thunder -175 | Grizzlies +158 (Bet Now!)
Today’s NBA Point Spread Betting Odds: Thunder -4.5 | Grizzlies +4.5
NBA Basketball Gambling Total: O/U: 229
Here’s why I’m backing the favored OKC as per below in my Thunder Grizzlies free pick & gambling prediction for this matchup.
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Thunder vs. Grizzlies Gameday
It’s a full slate of games on Friday with 10 contests, including the OKC Thunder traveling to Tennessee to face the Memphis Grizzlies.
OKC last played on Wednesday in a match that should’ve helped them get out of their funk. Instead, they had to battle to force overtime and only beat the Jazz by four points (129-125). Shai Gilgeous-Alexander went into MVP mode to capture the win and led the Thunder with 46 points, six assists, six rebounds, a steal, and a block.
Memphis also played on Wednesday, losing 98-117 to the Phoenix Suns. Five Grizzlies scored in double figures, led by Jaren Jackson Jr., who scored 19 points, adding four rebounds.
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2026 NBA Basketball Handicapping
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OKC Thunder vs. Memphis Grizzlies Odds & Last 5
Head-to-head last season, the Thunder swept the four-game series, has won both meetings this season, and holds a current eleven-game win streak versus the Grizzlies. That win streak should give the angst-ridden Thunder a renewed sense of confidence as they enter this match.
OKC remains the top seed in the West (and overall) with a 31-7 record. Though they are 3-2 through the last five matches, the Thunder are still very much a threat, having won five of their last seven games. Moving forward, OKC will play five of its next seven matches on the road.
Memphis sits in the final play-in berth (10th) and has a 16-21 record presently. Typically, they are great against lower echelon seeds, but they’ve struggled to recapture their identity. To wit, Memphis is 1-4 through the last five matches and continues to be besieged by injuries.
The Thunder are favored by 4.5 points with an over/under of 229.
Thunder Stats
OKC ranks fifth (118.0) on offense and first on defense (105.0). Additionally, the Thunder hold the top-ranked net rating (+13.0) and run the 12th-ranked pace (101.50).
The NBA’s top team averages 121.4 points per game while its opponents average 108.1 points. In terms of dimes and boards, OKC averages 25.8 (17th) and 43.9 (18th), respectively.
OKC’s team leaders* are Shai Gilgeous-Alexander for scoring (31.9 points) as well as for assists (6.4), Isaiah Hartenstein for rebounds (10.4), **Cason Wallace for steals (2.2), and Chet Holmgren for blocks (1.8).
As for the perimeter, seven Thunder players shoot at least 36.0%, with the team shooting 36.0% overall.
*minimum 10 games
** leads the NBA
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Grizzlies Stats
The Grizzlies rank 24th offensively (112.4), 14th defensively (114.0), with the 18th-ranked net rating of (-1.6), and runs the 10th-fastest pace (101.85).
The Grizzlies are averaging 115.2 points per game while their opponents average 116.6 points. In terms of dimes and boards, Memphis averages 29.1 (tied for 5th) and 46.3 (tied for 3rd), respectively.
Memphis’ team leaders* are Ja Morant for scoring (19.0), assists (7.6), and steals (1.0), and Zach Edey for rebounds (11.1) and blocks (1.9).
Perimeter shooting is a weakness for the Grizz as the club shoots 34.7% from deep while only three players shoot above 36.0%.
*minimum 10 games played
OKC Thunder vs. Memphis Grizzlies bottom line:
The elephant in the locker room in Memphis is the Ja Morant and Tuomas Iisalo situation, which doesn’t appear to be improving. It’s led to the point guard being named as a trade possibility, so keep an eye on that as the deadline looms.
Morant has been in and out of the lineup, dealing with injuries, but hasn’t looked like the player many were citing as the new face of the league prior to his off-court semantics.
OKC Thunder vs. Memphis Grizzlies Basketball Betting Trends
- Oklahoma City is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games.
- The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oklahoma City’s last 5 games.
- Oklahoma City is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games.
- Also, Memphis is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games.
- The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Memphis’ last 6 games.
- Additionally, Memphis is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home.
Thunder Grizzlies Free Pick: Thunder -4.5
Here is my Thunder Grizzlies free pick. Say what you will about coaches getting ejected trying to make a point, but 28 other teams should be sending Chris Finch a thank-you card.
Since the first Spurs victory versus the Thunder (and no doubt impacted by Finch’s rant about Shai Gilgeous-Alexander getting to the line), the Canadian went from taking the 5th most free throws to the 31st most. That’s a huge differential, especially when games can be won or lost at the line.
Part of OKC’s malaise can be credited to Jalen Williams who is still rounding into form and hasn’t looked close to the player that was the Robin to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s batman during their championship run.
Although OKC has looked snake-bitten in recent outings, they remain the team most likely to advance out of the West. While SGA deals with the change of the whistle, don’t be surprised if that’s a short-lived situation, given his style of play.
I simply can’t get behind the Grizzlies due to their inconsistency and seeming disconnect between Morant and the coach, so take the Thunder to win and cover.
Today’s NBA Free Pick
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NBA Betting Tweet Of The Day
4 years ago, today — the memphis grizzlies found their groove in the 2021-2022 nba season finishing with a franchise tying 56 wins after starting the season 9-10. pic.twitter.com/gadYUGRkz4
— myke (@NBAMyke) January 8, 2026
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