Free Pick: Thunder vs. Nuggets Odds
Looking for OKC Thunder vs. Denver Nuggets Free NBA predictions? NBA betting sees the Thunder taking on the Nuggets on 2/1 at Ball Arena in Denver. Cappers Picks provides complimentary expert handicapping picks on all NBA basketball matchups all season long, so stay tuned for more FREE daily NBA predictions like this Thunder Nuggets free pick.
2026 NBA Handicapping – OKC Thunder vs Denver Nuggets
(38-11) OKC Thunder vs. Denver Nuggets (33-16)
Date: Feb 1, 2026
Time: 9:30 PM ET
Venue: Ball Arena, Denver, CO
NBA Moneyline Odds: Thunder -187 | Nuggets +165 (Bet Now!)
Today’s NBA Point Spread Betting Odds: Thunder -4.5| Nuggets +4.5
NBA Basketball Gambling Total: O/U: 227.5
Here’s why I’m taking the underdog Denver in my Thunder Nuggets free pick & gambling prediction for this matchup.
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Thunder vs. Nuggets Gameday
Sunday, the NBA serves up a full slate of 10 matches, including the OKC Thunder on the road to face the Denver Nuggets.
OKC has been off since Thursday, when they fell 111-123 to the Minnesota Timberwolves. Five Thunder players scored in double figures, led by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander with 30 points, six rebounds, and eight assists. Isaiah Hartenstein returned to the lineup, posting 11 points and five rebounds.
Meanwhile, the undermanned Nuggets played on Friday, but got a shot in the arm with the return of Nikola Jokic. His presence helped Denver as they went on to win 122-109 against the red-hot Clippers.
Five Nuggets scored in double-figures with their superstar making his presence felt as he delivered a double-double of 31 points and 12 rebounds in 25 minutes on the floor. Jamal Murray offered 20 points and nine assists while Peyton Watson scored 21.
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2026 NBA Basketball Handicapping
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OKC Thunder vs. Denver Nuggets Odds & Last 5
Head-to-head, the teams have historically battled in their matches, with each side winning twice in the series last season. Denver was the one West team that pushed OKC in the playoffs on route to the championship. This is the first meeting between the clubs this season.
OKC hasn’t exactly been the dominant squad that began this season 24-1; however, they’ve played well enough despite a slew of injuries to maintain a healthy lead over their conference rivals. The Thunder possess a record of 28-11 with a five-game lead over the Spurs and Nuggets.
Even with Jokic back, injuries continue to ravage the Nuggets, but they can breathe a major sigh of relief as they held onto an upper-echelon seed despite his absence. To wit, Denver is in a virtual tie with the Spurs but ranks third based on winning percentage.
OKC is favored by 4.5 points, with an over/under of 227.5 points.
Thunder Stats
OKC ranks fifth (117.8) on offense and first on defense (105.7). Additionally, the Thunder hold the top-ranked net rating (+12.1) and run the 13th-ranked pace (101.06).
The NBA’s top team averages 120.3 points per game while its opponents average 108.0 points. In terms of dimes and boards, OKC averages 25.5 (18th) and 43.6 (tied for 17th), respectively.
OKC’s team leaders* are Shai Gilgeous-Alexander for scoring (32.0 points) as well as for assists (6.2), Isaiah Hartenstein for rebounds (10.2), Cason Wallace for steals (2.0), and Chet Holmgren for blocks (2.0).
As for the perimeter, six Thunder players shoot at least 36.1%, with the team shooting 35.8 overall.
*minimum 10 games
**Leads the NBA
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Nuggets Stats
Denver ranks first offensively (121.0) and 22nd defensively (116.4) while holding the seventh-best net rating (+4.6) and ranks 26th in pace (98.46).
The West’s third seed averages 120.1 points per game while its opponents average 115.6 points. In terms of dimes and boards, Denver averages 28.0 (ninth) and 42.5 (24th), respectively.
Team leaders* in key categories are Nikola Jokic for scoring (29.7), rebounding (12.2), assists (10.8), and steals (1.4), while Peyton Watson leads in blocks (1.2).
As for perimeter efficiency, the Nuggets as a team shoot 39.8% (1st in NBA) with eight players shooting over 40.0%!
*Minimum 10 games played
OKC Thunder vs. Denver Nuggets bottom line:
If my preseason projections were accurate, these are the two clubs with the best shot of winning the title this season (I picked the Nuggets). Presumably, the coaches will approach these games with that thought in mind and therefore may hold back some strategy.
Ultimately, you’ve got the two best players in the league facing each other and the top offense versus the top defense. Should be must-watch TV.
OKC Thunder vs. Denver Nuggets Basketball Betting Trends
- Oklahoma City is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games.
- The total has gone OVER in 5 of Oklahoma City’s last 7 games.
- Oklahoma City is 12-6 SU in its last 18 games.
- Also, Denver is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games.
- The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Denver’s last 8 games when hosting Oklahoma City.
- Additionally, Denver is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home.
Thunder Nuggets Free Pick: Nuggets +4.5
Here is my Thunder Nuggets free pick.
In my prior previews, I noted Jokic’s return could coincide with this match, and he didn’t disappoint, returning one game prior.
As for the matchup, Denver has the decided advantage from the perimeter while the Thunder will attack the paint with much of their scoring occurring in the mid-range or at the rim.
Jamal Murray will be waiting with bated breath on Sunday as the league announces its All-Star reserves. Ditto for Chet Holmgren, who would get the nod over Jalen Williams, given his lack of minutes due to injury this season.
OKC hasn’t been the juggernaut that began the season, and has more than half their losses in January, and most notably has lost three of their last four matches.
Conversely, Denver has as many losses in January (6), but did it missing their superstar and, for the most part, another three starters.
Entering Sunday, both teams still have core players out, but the main stars will be playing.
My pick is a no-brainer based on the facts (and hey I’m stubborn – I picked Denver preseason and nothing they’ve done has shaken my commitment to that selection).
Take the points and the Nuggets to serve up another loss for OKC.
Today’s NBA Free Pick
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NBA Betting Tweet Of The Day
OKC (#1 in DefRtg) vs DEN (#1 in OffRtg)
A lot of stops… against a lot of buckets.
Thunder-Nuggets | Sunday Night Basketball | NBC & Peacock | 9:30pm/et pic.twitter.com/I6M4HLS63D
— NBA (@NBA) January 31, 2026
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