Free NBA Pick: Thunder vs. Nuggets NBA Odds
Looking for OKC Thunder vs. Denver Nuggets free NBA picks & NBA Odds? NBA betting sees the Thunder taking on the Nuggets on Sunday, May 11th, at Ball Arena, Denver, Colorado. Cappers Picks provides complimentary expert handicapping picks on all NBA basketball matchups so stay tuned for more FREE daily NBA hoops predictions like this Thunder Nuggets matchup.
2025 NBA Playoffs Handicapping OKC Thunder vs. Denver Nuggets
(1-2) OKC Thunder vs. Denver Nuggets (2-1)
Date: Sunday, May 11th
Time: 3:30 PM ET
Venue: Ball Arena, Denver, Colorado
Moneyline NBA Odds: Thunder -240| Nuggets +200 (Bet Now!)
NBA ATS Betting Odds: Thunder -6
Today’s NBA Betting Total (O/U): 227.5
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It’s a quick turnaround for Game 4 as the Denver Nuggets and Oklahoma City Thunder play an afternoon matinee.
Denver pulled ahead in clutch time in Game 3 winning 113-104 to pull back ahead 2-1 in the series.
The Nuggets beat the Clippers in 7 games to reach this stage, while the Thunder swept the Grizzlies. The winner of this series will face the victor of the Warriors-Wolves semi-finals.
Season Series
The Thunder won three of the four matches between the Northwestern Division rivals last season, while OKC also holds the all-time record between the squads with 107 victories in 202 matches.
OKC Thunder
On a night where the three-time MVP struggled to score the Thunder battled but also witnessed their superstar struggle. And while it felt like the Thunder was on the cusp of breaking loose they folded in overtime.
Jalen Williams (32 points) was the key scorer in Game 3 picking up the slack for SGA but it simply wasn’t enough.
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Thunder Stats
OKC ranked third offensively (119.2) and first defensively (106.6) with a net differential of plus +12.7, which also ranked first overall this regular season.
Notably, the Thunder’s record against the spread is 58-31-1 through 90 contests.
Thunder Injury Report
To summarize the injury report…
- Nicola Topic, PG ( OUT for season — ACL)
Denver Nuggets
Four players scored 20 or more led by Jamal Murray with 27 points while Aaron Gordon offered 22 points, and Michael Porter Jr. played through his shoulder injury to net 21.
Jokic also had 20 points but on a highly inefficient effort where he shot 8 of 25. Moreover, turnovers are becoming a problem for the Joker as he coughed up the ball eight times in Game 3.
Nuggets Stats
This season, Denver ranked fourth offensively (118.9) and 21st defensively (115.1) with a net differential of plus +3.8, which ranked ninth overall.
Despite their overall placement, the Nuggets weren’t as solid against the spread with a 43-47-2 record through 92 contests.
Nuggets Injury Report
To summarize the injury report…
- DaRon Holmes II, PF (OUT for season — Achilles)
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Thunder vs. Nuggets NBA Betting Trends:
- All in all, OKC are 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games.
- The total has gone UNDER in 5 of OKC’s last 6 games when playing in Denver.
- Also, the Thunder are 9-2 SU in its last 11 games.
- By comparison, Denver is 5-1-1 ATS in its last 7 games.
- The total has gone OVER in 5 of Denver’s last 6 games.
- Additionally, the Nuggets are 5-2 SU in its last 7 games.
Free NBA Prediction:
Aside from Game 2, this series has been extremely close and OKC could just as easily be up 3-0. In Game 3 there were 15 lead changes and 12 ties.
While I don’t expect another blow-out you can be sure the Thunder will come out aggressive and focused to start Game 4 as they cover the spread and even the series up.
4* Free Thunder vs. Nuggets NBA Betting Pick: Thunder ATS
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NBA Tweet Of The Day
AG FORCES OT.
NUGGETS DOMINATE EXTRA FRAME.
14-2 DENVER RUN to close Game 3 and go up 2-1 in the West Semis 🔥🔥🔥 pic.twitter.com/2P0JlhFov8
— NBA (@NBA) May 10, 2025
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