Free Pick: Heat vs. Wolves Odds
Looking for Miami Heat vs. Minnesota Timberwolves Free NBA predictions? NBA betting sees the Heat taking on the Wolves on 1/6 at the Target Center in Minneapolis. Cappers Picks provides complimentary expert handicapping picks on all NBA basketball matchups all season long so stay tuned for more FREE daily NBA predictions like this Heat Wolves free pick.
2026 NBA Handicapping – Miami Heat vs Minnesota Timberwolves
(20-16) Miami Heat vs. Minnesota Timberwolves (23-13)
Date: Jan 6, 2026
Time: 8:00 PM ET
Venue: The Target Center, Minnesota
NBA Moneyline Odds: Heat +190| Wolves -225 (Bet Now!)
Today’s NBA Point Spread Betting Odds: Heat +5.5 | Wolves -5.5
NBA Basketball Gambling Total: O/U: 237.5
Here’s why I’m backing the favorite Minnesota as outlined in my Heat Wolves free pick & gambling prediction for this matchup.
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Heat vs. Wolves Gameday
Tuesday offers a small slate of six matches, including the Miami Heat facing the Minnesota Timberwolves.
Miami last played Sunday in a 125-106 victory versus the New Orleans Pelicans. Six Heat players scored in double figures, with Norman Powell leading the way with 34 points. Kel’el Ware continues to perform as well, registering a double-double of 16 points and 12 rebounds.
Meanwhile, the Wolves also played on Sunday in a winning 141-115 effort versus the Washington Wizards. Five Wolves registered double-digit scoring, led by Anthony Edwards with 35 points, six rebounds, three assists, and four steals.
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2026 NBA Basketball Handicapping
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Miami Heat vs. Minnesota Timberwolves Odds & Last 5
Last season, the inter-conference rivals played twice, splitting the series, while the Wolves took the initial meeting this season 125-115.
Over the last five games, the Heat are 4-1 (and 5-1 in their last six). Miami sits in the seventh seed with a 20-16 record, but is 1.5 games out of fourth place. This is the first of a four-game home stand, while the Heat will play nine of their next 12 on the road, where they are 7-10.
Minnesota has gone under the radar and enters this match sporting a 23-13 record, sitting in the sixth seed. They are 3-2 through the last five but are 13-5 through their last 18 matches.
Entering this matchup, the Wolves are 5.5 favorites to win with an over/under of 237.5 points.
Heat Stats
Miami ranks 14th (115.0) offensively, fourth defensively (111.9), ninth in net rating (+3.1), and runs with a pace of 104.66, which ranks first overall.
The East’s seventh seed averages 120.8 points per game, while their opponents average 117.3 points. In terms of dimes and boards, Miami averages 28.7 (7th) and 45.5 ( 8th), respectively.
Miami’s team leaders are Norman Powell for scoring (24.4 points), Davion Mitchell for assists (7.4), Kel’el Ware for rebounds (10.6) and blocks (1.3), while Dru Smith leads with 1.6 steals.
Perimeter shooting is a strength for the Heat, who have seven* players shooting over 36.1%. Notably, that does not include Tyler Herro or Jahmir Young, who haven’t played the minimum of games yet.
*minimum 10 games
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Wolves Stats
Minnesota ranks eighth offensively (117.2), seventh defensively (112.7), and tied for seventh in net rating (+4.5), running a pace of 100.98, which ranks 17th overall.
The West’s sixth-place Wolves average 26.6 assists (tied for 11th) and 44.3 rebounds (15th). Minny scores 119.6 points per game while their opponents average 114.6 points.
The Wolves team leaders* are Anthony Edwards for scoring (29.4 points) and steals (1.4), Rudy Gobert for rebounding (11.1) and blocks (1.7), and Julius Randle for assists (5.7).
As for the perimeter, the Wolves average 36.4% from deep with five players shooting above 36.3%.
*minimum 10 games
Miami Heat vs. Minnesota Timberwolves bottom line:
Injuries could pose the biggest issue in this meeting as several Heat players are questionable or out while Minny is relatively healthy and playing with a swagger, especially since they beat the Thunder.
To wit, Jaime Jaquez Jr. is a game time decision, and other than Powell, is the only player Spoelstra can truly rely on scoring.
Miami Heat vs. Minnesota Timberwolves Basketball Betting Trends
- Miami is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games.
- The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Miami’s last 15 games.
- Miami is 3-12 SU in its last 15 games against Minnesota.
- Also, Minnesota is 13-5 SU in its last 18 games.
- The total has gone OVER in 4 of Minnesota’s last 6 games.
- Additionally, Minnesota is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games played in January.
Heat Wolves Free Pick: Wolves -5.5
Here is my Heat Wolves free pick.
Miami infamously was the team playing the Nuggets when Jokic got hurt, and they followed up that rout with an impressive win against the Pistons (who went on to beat both the Cavs and Knicks in a back-to-back set).
Ironically, the one team the Heat lost to in their last six matches was the Wolves.
Winning the first quarter is key for the Wolves who are 19-2 in games they are ahead by double digits.
Miami has been uber hot of late, but so too have the Wolves, and for a longer period of time, so I’m leaning toward the Wolves winning and covering.
Today’s NBA Free Pick
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NBA Betting Tweet Of The Day
2-0 in ‘26. pic.twitter.com/uUtkdV0wos
— Minnesota Timberwolves (@Timberwolves) January 5, 2026
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