Free Pick: Heats vs. Hawks Odds
Looking for Miami Heat vs. Atlanta Hawks Free NBA predictions? NBA betting sees the Heat taking on the Hawks on 12/26 at State Farm Arena in Atlanta. Cappers Picks provides complimentary expert handicapping picks on all NBA basketball matchups all season long, so stay tuned for more FREE daily NBA predictions like this Heat Hawks free pick.
2025 NBA Handicapping – Miami Heat vs Atlanta Hawks
(15-15) Miami Heat vs. Atlanta Hawks (15-16)
Date: Dec 26, 2025
Time: 7:o0 PM ET
Venue: State Farm Arena, Atlanta, GA
NBA Moneyline Odds: Heat +140 | Hawks -160 (Bet Now!)
Today’s NBA Point Spread Betting Odds: Heat +3.5 | Hawks -3.5
NBA Basketball Gambling Total: O/U: 248.5
Here’s why I’m backing the favorite Atlanta as per below, in my Heat Hawks free pick & gambling prediction for this matchup.
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Heat vs. Hawks Gameday
Boxing Day serves up a nine-game slate, including the Miami Heat facing the Atlanta Hawks.
Both clubs last played on Tuesday, with the Heat getting destroyed 91-112 by the undermanned Raptors. It was the worst offensive showing by Miami this season (the second worst was also at the hands of Toronto).
Jaime Jaquez Jr. was the Heat’s top scorer with 21 as he joined three teammates who registered double-figures.
Atlanta also fell, suffering a 123-126 loss to the Chicago Bulls, who rallied from a double-digit deficit to beat the Hawks.
Jalen Johnson led the Hawks with 24 points, 10 assists, and nine rebounds, while Trae Young added 22 points and 15 assists.
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Miami Heat vs. Atlanta Hawks Odds & Last 5
Head-to-head last season, the teams split their four-game series and will meet another four times this season as Southeast Division rivals.
Miami sits eighth in the East with a 15-15 record, having slid down the ladder in recent weeks during their struggles. To wit, the Heat are 1-4 through their last five matches and have lost eight of their last nine contests.
Atlanta sits one rung back in 9th with a 15-16 record and is also 1-4 in their last five as they’ve lost four in-a-row and eight of their last 10 matches.
Atlanta is the favorite to win with a 3.5 point spread and an over/under of 248.5
Heat Stats
Miami ranks 18th (113.7) offensively, tied for seventh defensively (112.5), 13th in net rating (+1.2), and runs with a pace of 104.34, which ranks first overall.
The East’s eighth seed averages 119.2 points per game, while their opponents average 117.6 points. In terms of dimes and boards, Miami averages 28.3 (7th) and 45.4 ( 7th), respectively.
Miami’s team leaders are Norman Powell for scoring (23.7 points), Davion Mitchell for assists (7.5), Kel’el Ware for rebounds (10.7) and blocks (1.3), while Dru Smith leads with 1.5 steals.
Perimeter shooting is a strength for the Heat, who have five* players shooting over 36.3%. Notably, that does not include Tyler Herro or Jahmir Young, who haven’t played the minimum of games yet.
*minimum 10 games
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Hawks Stats
With 31 games in the well, the Hawks rank 12th (114.8) on offense and 18th on defense (115.6). Additionally, Atlanta is 17th in net rating (-0.7) and runs the fifth quickest pace (102.78).
The East’s ninth seed averages 118.8 points per game, while their opponents average 119.6 points. In terms of dimes and boards, Atlanta averages 31.1 (first) and 41.6 (26th), respectively.
Team leaders* in key categories for Atlanta feature Jalen Johnson for scoring (23.8 points), rebounding (10.5), and assists (8.3) while Dyson Daniels is the top steal man (2.0) and Kristaps Porzingis (1.6) for blocks.
Seven Hawks shoot 36.4% or better from the perimeter while the team as a whole shoots 36.9%.
*Minimum 10 games played (hence why Trae Young doesn’t lead the assist category)
Miami Heat vs. Atlanta Hawks bottom line:
Both clubs enter this match struggling to collect wins, perhaps having hit the winter wall. However, with Trae Young returning and the Hawks continuing to lose, it’s added to the banter of a potential trade.
Every game he plays will be under the microscope for both the Hawks franchise and opposing teams, looking to add a playmaking guard.
Miami Heat vs. Atlanta Hawks Basketball Betting Trends
- Miami is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games.
- The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Miami’s last 9 games.
- Miami is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games.
- Also, Atlanta is 0-6 ATS in its last 6 games.
- The total has gone OVER in 6 of Atlanta’s last 8 games.
- Additionally, Atlanta is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games.
Heat Hawks Free Pick: Hawks -3.5
Here is my Heat Hawks free pick.
Miami began the season with a blistering pace and was reaping the benefits of it offensively. But with the book out on the Heat, teams are doubling up on Norman Powell recognizng the starters tend to stand and wait for Powell to score or create, which has contributed to the recent losing.
Suffice it to say, Bam Adebayo standing in a corner for the entire offensive set isn’t maximizing your talent, and tweaks are definitely required.
Part of the reason why Trae Young trade rumors are growing is the breakout season Jalen Johnson is having as he’s averaging 23.8 points, 10.5 rebounds, 8.3 assists, and 1.5 steals while shooting 37.8% from deep.
This matchup offers some confusion when it comes to how the teams perform in certain circumstances with the Heat 5-10 on the road and the Hawks 5-9 at home. No true advantage exists, but I like the Hawks to win and I’ll take them to cover.
And while neither team has shown a propensity to bring lockdown defense to the court, I also like the under.
Today’s NBA Free Pick
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NBA Betting Tweet Of The Day
The Hawks have the NBA’s worst defense this season with Trae Young on the court:
On: 127.1 (30th)
Off: 113.1 (10th)Atlanta’s record with Young is 2-8 compared to 13-8 without. pic.twitter.com/MLy1mtYWhX
— Evan Sidery (@esidery) December 24, 2025
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