Free Pick: Rockets vs. Mavericks Odds
Looking for Houston Rockets vs. Dallas Mavericks Free NBA predictions? NBA betting sees the Rockets taking on the Mavericks on 1/3 at American Airlines Center in Dallas. Cappers Picks provides complimentary expert handicapping picks on all NBA basketball matchups all season long, so stay tuned for more FREE daily NBA predictions like this Rockets Mavericks free pick.
2026 NBA Handicapping – Houston Rockets vs. Dallas Mavericks
(21-10) Houston Rockets vs. Dallas Mavericks (12-23)
Date: Jan 3, 2026
Time: 8:30 PM ET
Venue: American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX
NBA Moneyline Odds: Rockets -323 | Mavericks +270 (Bet Now!)
Today’s NBA Point Spread Betting Odds: Rockets -8| Mavericks +8
NBA Basketball Gambling Total: O/U: 226
Here’s why I’m backing visiting Houston as per below in my Rockets Mavericks free pick & gambling prediction for this matchup.
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Rockets vs. Mavericks Gameday
Saturday serves up eight matches, including the Houston Rockets traveling to face their in-state hosts, the Dallas Mavericks.
Houston is coming off a 120-96 beatdown by the Nets and has won four in a row. All five starters plus Reed Sheppard scored in double digits, with Amen Thompson leading the scoring (23 points). Alperen Sengun was back on the court for this game.
The Mavericks, who had seemingly turned a corner, are back to their losing ways, having fallen to the Philadelphia 76ers 108-123 on Thursday. Five Mavericks scored in double figures, led by Max Christie, who scored 18 points.
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2026 NBA Basketball Handicapping
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Houston Rockets vs. Dallas Mavericks Odds & Last 5
Head-to-head last season, the Rockets won the series three games to one, while this campaign, the teams have played twice and each won a match.
In the last five matches, the Rockets have been on a roll, going 4-1 and have won four in-a-row. Houston sits in the fourth slot in the West but has a better winning percentage than the Nuggets, who have two additional wins in hand.
Meanwhile, the Mavericks are the direct contrast of Houston, with four losses in a row for a 1-4 record through the last five contests. Dallas resides in the 13th seed out West with a 12-23 record.
The Rockets are the favorite by a spread of eight points with an over/under of 226 points.
Rockets Stats
With 31 games in the pocket, Houston ranks second overall (123.1) on offense and tied for seventh on defense (112.7). Additionally, the Rockets hold the second-ranked net rating (+9.0) and run the 28th slowest pace (96.96).
The West’s sixth fourth averages 120.5 points per game, while its opponents average 111.5 points. In terms of dimes and boards, Houston averages 25.7 (18th) and 48.7 (1st), respectively.
Team leaders are Kevin Durant for scoring (25.4), Alperen Sengun for assists (6.7), rebounds (9.3), and blocks (1.0), and Reed Sheppard for steals (1.5).
Perimeter shooting is a major advantage for Houston, which shoots the deep ball at an average of 40.0%. Incredibly, nine different players average over 38.3%, with seven shooting above 40%.
*Minimum 10 games played
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Mavericks Stats
Dallas ranks 28th offensively (109.5), 11th defensively (113.4), and 24th in net rating (-3.9), running a pace of 102.31, which ranks sixth overall.
The West’s 13th-place Mavericks average 25.2 assists (23rd) and 44.4 rebounds (14th). Dallas scores 113.6 points per game while their opponents average 117.9 points.
Dallas’ team leaders* are Anthony Davis for scoring (20.1), rebounds (10.7), steals (1.2), and blocks (1.5) while Ryan Nembhard leads for assists (5.2).
Perimeter shooting is a weakness for the Mavericks, with only three players averaging over 35.1% from deep.
Houston Rockets vs. Dallas Mavericks bottom line:
Perimeter shooting could make a massive difference in this contest as the Rockets rank second best in 3-point efficiency while the Mavericks rank 29th.
If things go according to the stats, this game could be over barely after it’s begun.
Houston Rockets vs. Dallas Mavericks Basketball Betting Trends
- Houston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games.
- The total has gone OVER in 6 of Houston’s last 9 games on the road.
- Houston is 6-12 SU in its last 18 games against Dallas.
- Also, Dallas is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games.
- The total has gone OVER in 8 of Dallas’ last 12 games.
- Additionally, Dallas is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home.
Rockets Mavericks Free Pick: Rockets -8
Here is my 76ers Mavericks free pick.
Dallas is in a pickle with the way they’ve been playing lately and seemingly still searching for an identity. Cooper Flagg and Anthony Davis are having decent outings, but the lack of talent is showing.
The Mavericks do have size to contend with the lengthy Rockets, and their bench scores the sixth most points, so it’s conceivable they could hang around if they push the pace against Houston, who prefer to run its offense at a much slower pace.
Alperen Sengun is having a career season looking poised to make an All-Star appearance. He’s averaging 25.4 points, 9.3 rebounds, 6.7 assists, 1.5 steals, and 1.0 blocks per game.
Although eight points feels a bit rich, I still like the Rockets to take it to the Mavericks, continuing both their win/loss streaks.
Therefore, take the Rockets to win and cover the spread.
Today’s NBA Free Pick
Best Sportsbooks For Houston Rockets vs. Dallas Mavericks NBA Gambling Today!
NBA Betting Tweet Of The Day
Did it once. Did it again.
BACK-TO-BACK Rookie of the Month awards for COOP 🔥@Cooper_Flagg // #MFFL pic.twitter.com/nWpQ3fcKFd
— Dallas Mavericks (@dallasmavs) January 2, 2026
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