Free Pick: Nuggets vs. Mavericks Odds
Looking for Denver Nuggets vs. Dallas Mavericks Free NBA predictions? NBA betting sees the Nuggets taking on the Mavericks on 1/14 at American Airlines Center in Dallas. Cappers Picks provides complimentary expert handicapping picks on all NBA basketball matchups all season long, so stay tuned for more FREE daily NBA predictions like this Rockets Mavericks free pick.
2026 NBA Handicapping – Denver Nuggets vs. Dallas Mavericks
(27-13) Denver Nuggets vs. Dallas Mavericks (15-25)
Date: Jan 14, 2026
Time: 9:30 PM ET
Venue: American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX
NBA Moneyline Odds: Nuggets -102 | Mavericks -108 (Bet Now!)
Today’s NBA Point Spread Betting Odds: Nuggets -1| Mavericks +1
NBA Basketball Gambling Total: O/U: 226.5
Here’s why I’m backing visiting Denver as per below in my Nuggets Mavericks free pick & gambling prediction for this matchup.
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Nuggets vs. Mavericks Gameday
Wednesday serves up seven games on the NBA slate, including the Denver Nuggets traveling to face their hosts, the Dallas Mavericks.
Denver is coming off a 122-116 victory versus the Pelicans on the front side of a back-to-back set. Five Nuggets scored in double figures, with Jamal Murray leading the charge, scoring 35 points along with nine assists, while Peyton Watson continued his hot streak, scoring 31 points and adding seven rebounds, five assists, two steals, and a block.
The Mavericks are coming off a 113-105 victory on Monday versus the tanking Nets. Five Mavs scored in double figures with rookie Cooper Flagg leading the way with 27 points, five rebounds, five assists, three steals and a block.
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Denver Nuggets vs. Dallas Mavericks Odds & Last 5
Head-to-head last season, the Nuggets won the series three games to one, while this campaign, the Mavericks are already up 2-0 in the regular set.
In the last five matches, the Nuggets have been on a roll, going 4-1 as they feasted on the East despite being short-handed. Remarkably, they’ve held onto a home court seed, sitting third with a record of 27-13. After this match, they’ll return home for a three-game set.
Meanwhile, the Mavericks are 3-2 through the last five contests and have played above expectations. Dallas sports a 15-25 record and sits in the 12th seed. They are on a current four-game home stand that will finish with a baseball set versus the Jazz.
The injury-riddled Nuggets are the favorite by a spread of a single point with an over/under of 226.5 points.
Nuggets Stats
Denver ranks first offensively (122.2) and 23rd defensively (116.7) while holding the fifth-best net rating (+5.4) and ranks 22nd in pace (99.49).
The West’s third seed averages 122.7 points per game while its opponents average 117.4 points. In terms of dimes and boards, Denver averages 28.6 (seventh) and 43.0 (23rd), respectively.
Team leaders* in key categories are Nikola Jokic for scoring (29.6), **rebounding (12.2), assists (11.0), and steals (1.4), while Peyton Watson leads in blocks (1.0).
As for perimeter efficiency, the Nuggets as a team shoot 40.2% (1st in NBA) with NINE players shooting above league average and eight shooting 40% or over.
*Minimum 10 games played
**leads the NBA
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Mavericks Stats
Dallas ranks 28th offensively (109.2), 10th defensively (112.8), and 23rd in net rating (-3.6), running a pace of 102.19, which ranks seventh overall.
The West’s 13th-place Mavericks average 25.2 assists (21st) and 44.5 rebounds (tied for 13th). Dallas scores 113.0 points per game while their opponents average 116.8 points.
Dallas’ team leaders* are Anthony Davis for scoring (20.4), rebounds (11.1), steals (1.1), and blocks (1.7) while Ryan Nembhard leads for assists (5.1).
Perimeter shooting is a weakness for the Mavericks, with four players averaging over 36% from deep while the team averages 34.0%.
Denver Nuggets vs. Dallas Mavericks bottom line:
Fate has determined the direction of the Mavericks, who were flirting with being a play-in team and possibly witnessing Kyrie Irving returning before the season ends.
Instead, they’ll join the tanking groups with news that Anthony Davis will miss at least six weeks (see tweet of the day) to address ligament damage in his hand.
This may spark the franchise to have a blow-out sale heading into the trade deadline and to build solely around Cooper Flagg, who has lived up to expectations (and then some!)
Denver Nuggets vs. Dallas Mavericks Basketball Betting Trends
- Denver is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games.
- The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Denver’s last 5 games when playing in Dallas.
- Denver is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road.
- Also, Dallas is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games.
- The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Dallas’ last 6 games.
- Additionally, Dallas is 4-8 SU in its last 12 games..
Nuggets Mavericks Free Pick: Rockets -8
Here is my Nuggets Mavericks free pick.
When Jokic went down with his injury, and Aaron Gordon plus Christian Braun were already out, the thinking was that if they could avoid falling to a play-in berth, it would be a major win.
Instead, the youngsters and players added for depth (Tim Hardaway Jr., Bruce Brown) have stepped up in the star’s absence to help Denver keep the third seed. Peyton Watson has been a revelation, finally showcasing his ability and shining in the spotlight.
For several years the Nuggets greatest weakness was their depth, but with Jokic out, the youngsters have stepped up and are gaining invaluable experience. While it’s helping them to win now and perform above expectations the real benefit should come in the playoffs.
The pundits are considering this match a coin toss, given Denver played on Tuesday, but I like them to win regardless, so take the Nuggets to win and cover.
Today’s NBA Free Pick
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NBA Betting Tweet Of The Day
As reported earlier, the Mavericks have had renewed trade talks around Davis with multiple interested teams and those conversations are continuing as Dallas stands 15-25, 12th in the Western Conference, and prioritizing the big-picture outlook around Cooper Flagg. https://t.co/Pb61YUM8Pv
— Shams Charania (@ShamsCharania) January 13, 2026
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