Free Pick: Mavericks vs. Warriors Odds
Looking for Dallas Mavericks vs. Golden State Warriors Free NBA predictions? NBA betting sees the Mavericks taking on the Warriors on 12/25 at the Chase Center in San Francisco. Cappers Picks provides complimentary expert handicapping picks on all NBA basketball matchups all season long so stay tuned for more FREE daily NBA predictions like this Mavericks Warriors free pick.
2025 NBA Handicapping – Dallas Mavericks vs Golden State Warriors
(12-19) Dallas Mavericks vs. Golden State Warriors (15-15)
Date: Dec 25, 2025
Time: 5:00 PM ET
Venue: The Chase Center, San Francisco, CA
NBA Moneyline Odds: Mavericks +275 | Warriors -320 (Bet Now!)
Today’s NBA Point Spread Betting Odds: Mavericks +8| Warriors -8
NBA Basketball Gambling Total: O/U: 227.5
Here’s why I’m backing the underdog Dallas as outlined in my Mavericks Warriors free pick & gambling prediction for this matchup.
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Mavericks vs. Warriors Gameday
Game three of the NBA Christmas event serves up the Dallas Mavericks on the road to face the Golden State Warriors.
Dallas last played on Tuesday in a statement 131-130 victory versus the Denver Nuggets. The Mavericks jumped out to a 20+ point lead and then needed to win in clutch time as the Nuggets shaved away the deficit, briefly taking a lead down the stretch, but the Mavs showed resilience in the massive win.
Rookie Cooper Flagg stepped up with 33 points, nine rebounds, nine assists plus two stocks while Anthony Davis chipped in 31 points and nine rebounds.
Golden State was one of two teams (Celtics) that didn’t play on Tuesday, as they arrive having last hit the court on Monday when they beat the Orlando Magic 120-97. Yet the win wasn’t the big news as Draymond Green and Steve Kerr got into a sideline altercation that ended with Green storming off to the lockerroom removing himself from the match.
Steph Curry was his typical amazing self, hitting jaw-dropping 3-pointers with ease as he led the Dubs with 26 points and six assists.
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Dallas Mavericks vs. Golden State Warriors Odds & Last 5
Last season, the teams split their four-game series, while this is the first meeting of three contests this season.
Through the quarter season, the Mavericks have looked like a tanking squad until recently, when they’ve won four of their last seven matches. Part of the reason is the ascendence of rookie Cooper Flagg and a healthy Anthony Davis.
Dallas resides in the 11th seed, just a half game out of 10th, and has a record of 12-19 this season.
Golden State is fighting to rediscover an identity, performing at a level clip of 15-15 on the season, and sits in the eighth seed. Through the last five matches, the Dubs are 2-3.
The Warriors are favored by 8 points with an over/under of 227.5.
Mavericks Stats
Dallas ranks 27th offensively (109.6), has vaulted to ninth defensively (112.93), and 22nd in net rating (-3.3), running a pace of 102.11, which ranks seventh overall.
The West’s 11th-place Mavericks average 25.3 assists (23rd) and 44.5 rebounds (tied for 13th). Dallas scores 113.6 points per game while their opponents average 117.4 points.
Dallas’ team leaders* are Anthony Davis for scoring (21.7), rebounding (11.4), steals (1.3), as well as blocks (1.5), while Ryan Nembhard leads for assists (5.6).
Notably, Cooper Flagg averages 19.2 points, 6.4 rebounds, and 3.8 assists.
Perimeter shooting is a weakness for the Mavericks, with only three players averaging over 35.3% from deep, and the team shooting 33.4% overall.
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Warriors Stats
With 30 games in the well, Golden State ranks 21st (113.3) on offense and third on defense (111.0). Additionally, the Dubs hold the 10th-ranked net rating (+2.2) and run the 18th quickest pace (100.60).
The West’s eighth seed averages 114.2 points per game while their opponents average 112.3 points. In terms of dimes and boards, Golden State averages 27.8 (8th) and 43.8 (20th), respectively.
Team leaders* for key categories are Stephen Curry for scoring (28.7), Jonathan Kuminga for rebounding (6.2), Draymond Green for assists (5.1), De’Anthony Melton for steals (1.7), and Al Horford for blocks (1.0).
As for the perimeter, the Dubs continue to rely on it, but perhaps not as much as in the past. They shoot 36.3% from deep as a team, with four players shooting 39.8% or better.
*Minimum 10 games played
Dallas Mavericks vs. Golden State Warriors bottom line:
Something is definitely amiss in the Warriors lockerroom as Draymond Green acts out, getting ejected from one game and essentially ejecting himself in the last match. Ironically, the Dubs played arguably a more cohesive offense without Green as they went on to win both matches.
The size of the Mavericks will be a real issue in this match, while defending Steph will be the biggest ask of the Mavs.
Dallas Mavericks vs. Golden State Warriors Basketball Betting Trends
- Dallas is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games against Golden State.
- The total has gone OVER in 6 of Dallas’ last 8 games.
- Dallas is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Golden State.
- Also, Golden State is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games.
- The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Golden State’s last 7 games against Dallas.
- Additionally, Golden State is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games at home.
Mavericks Warriors Free Pick: Mavericks +8
Here is my Mavericks Warriors free pick. Although the Warriors are 9-4 at home they have struggled to beat the spread so keep that in mind when betting this match.
With Anthony Davis healthy and Cooper Flagg already taking a leap the Mavericks aren’t the same team that began the season and subsequently a much tougher out.
Ironically it’s the Warriors defense which has been the stronger of their two systems this season. Offensively, they are struggling and because of it the rumor mill is heating up regarding trades. Some pundits surmise Draymond’s recent demeanor may have something to do with the latter.
To that end, don’t be surprised if the Mavericks make this a competitive outing, especially with the size they can throw at the undersized Warriors.
Steph likes to put on a show on Christmas, and I don’t anticipate anything different in this one, but given the Dubs struggles against the spread at home, I’ll take the Mavs and the points.
Today’s NBA Free Pick
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NBA Betting Tweet Of The Day
Another season, another flashpoint.
In 2019, Draymond Green snapped at Kevin Durant after a missed chance to win.
In 2022, he punched Jordan Poole.
In 2024, Steph Curry was left in tears after Draymond was ejected.
Now in 2025, Draymond walked straight to the locker room… pic.twitter.com/q430oaIBKX
— ClutchPoints (@ClutchPoints) December 23, 2025
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