Free NCAA Pick: Mississippi State vs. Missouri Odds
Looking for Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. Missouri Tigers free NCAA Week 12 picks & NCAA odds? NCAA betting sees the Bulldogs taking on the Tigers on Saturday, November 15 at Memorial Stadium (MO). Cappers Picks provides complimentary NCAA handicapping picks all season long including all NCAA Week 12 games so stay tuned for more FREE NCAA predictions like this Mississippi State Missouri matchup.
2025 NCAAF Handicapping Analysis: Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. Missouri Tigers Week 12
(5-5) Mississippi State vs. Missouri (6-3)
Date: Saturday, November 15, 2025
Time: 7:45PM
Venue: Memorial Stadium, Columbia, Missouri
Week 12 ATS Betting Lines: (BET NOW!) Mississippi State +7| Missouri -7
Week 12 CFB Moneyline Odds: Mississippi State +220| Missouri -275
College Football Betting Total: O/U 51.5
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Bulldogs Tigers Gameday
Mississippi State has just one SEC win and is looking for another to get bowl eligible. This feels like an improvement for the program despite the record.
Mizzou was hoping to make some noise in the conference this season but injuries at quarterback have hemmed them in.
There are more meaningful games in the SEC this week, but this one got a prime time slot. You can bet it but, you don’t have to watch it.
Mizzou has to be on upset alert, the Bulldogs have much more to play for.
Mississippi State Bulldogs
From my perspective, MSU has no bad losses, and they are a sterling 8-2 ATS this season. That is progess.
The offense, featuring expierenced QB Blake Shapen is balanced, and you can see how they could be even better if they could just up the talent level a little.
In previous regimes the defense was more rugged but they can win with this group if they could just put up a few more points per game.
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Mississippi State Bulldogs Stats
Mississippi State is in their second season under Coach Jeff Lebby. Through ten games, the team holds an overall record of 5-5, showing improvement from the previous 2-10 season.
The Bulldogs’ offense is averaging a 32.0 points per game and 399.6 yards of total offense, placing them competitively in the SEC in terms of scoring.
Their passing game posts 242.8 yards per contest, led by quarterback Blake Shapen, who has tallied 2,234 yards and 15 touchdowns.
On the ground, the Bulldogs feature a productive backfield duo, with running backs Fluff Bothwell and Davon Booth combining for over 1,000 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns.
Despite the offensive firepower and a strong 4-0 start to the year, the Bulldogs have struggled to consistently win in the challenging SEC.
The defense has allowed 26.3 points and 388.7 total yards per game and is better against the pass, holding opponents to 212.5 yards through the air.
A key strength for the team has been its special teams and turnover margin, boasting a total turnover margin of +4, partially driven by 11 interceptions on defense.
Wide receiver Brenen Thompson is the leading pass-catcher, pacing the team with 808 yards and six receiving touchdowns, showcasing his big-play ability within Lebby’s “Veer and Shoot” offensive system.
Missouri Tigers
Mizzou was having success with transfer quarterback Beau Pribula, but they are down to their #3 option and it is showing.
They have lost three of four after a strong start and this might be their best chance to get a win this season, with two games on the road afterwards.
Even as their offense has struggled, Mizzou has been among the better defenses in the country, giving up less than 20ppg for the season.
To get a win in their final home game they need to lean into that and make this an ugly game where they score just enought.
Missouri Tigers Stats
Through nine games the Missouri Tigers have posted a solid 6-3 overall record (2-3 in the SEC) and at one time were ranked as high as 14th in the AP Poll.
The team’s strength has been a dynamic offense coupled with a strong defense, resulting in an average scoring margin of +14.2 points per game.
The offense is highly effective on the ground, averaging 232.3 rushing yards per game with an impressive 5.3 yards per carry, which ranks among the top in the SEC.
Running back Ahmad Hardy has been the focal point of the rushing attack, already eclipsing the 1,000-yard mark with 1,046 yards and 12 touchdowns.
Complementing the high-powered running game is an aggressive defense allowing only 19.1 points per game and holding opponents to just 270.0 total yards per game.
Key playmakers on the defensive side include linebacker Josiah Trotter, who leads the team in tackles and tackles for loss, and edge rusher Zion Young, who has been responsible for five sacks.
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Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. Missouri Tigers Football Trends
- Mississippi State is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games.
- The total has gone OVER in 4 of Mississippi State’s last 6 games.
- Mississippi State is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games.
- Mississippi State is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games on the road.
- Missouri is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games.
- The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Missouri’s last 5 games.
- Missouri is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games.
- Missouri is 15-2 SU in its last 17 games at home.
4* Free Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. Missouri Tigers 2025 Week 12 NCAA Betting Prediction: Mississippi State +7
If the Tigers were healthy I would like them to win easiy at home. Without a proven QB they are hard to back in this spot.
The offense just isn’t there and I would expect lots of bettors are putting this game into their teasers given that we are on the key number right now.
The MSU defense gets a pass as a result, and that means their offense does not have to be as sharp against a good Mizzou defense.
Look for this to be a field goal game. I am considering putting half my stake on the Bulldogs to win outright. Even on the road.
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