Free NCAA Pick: Western Kentucky vs. Alabama Odds
Looking for Western Kentucky Hilltoppers vs. Alabama Crimson Tide free NCAA Week 1 picks & NCAA odds? NCAA betting sees the Hilltoppers taking on the Crimson Tide on Saturday, August 31st at the Saban Field at Bryant-Denny Stadium. Cappers Picks provides complimentary NCAA handicapping picks all season long including all NCAA Week 1 games so stay tuned for more FREE NCAA predictions like this Western Kentucky Alabama matchup.
2024 NCAAF Handicapping Analysis: Week 1
(0-0) Western Kentucky Hilltoppers vs. Alabama Crimson Tide (0-0)
Date: Saturday, August 31st
Time: 7:00 ET
Venue: Saban Field at Bryant-Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa, AL
Week 1 ATS Betting Lines: (BET NOW!) Western Kentucky +32 | Alabama -32
Week 1 CFB Moneyline Odds: Western Kentucky +2865 | Alabama -10000
College Football Betting Total: O/U 59.5
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Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
Western Kentucky is +508 to win the Conference USA title this season, giving them the 2nd best odds out of the 10 teams in the conference. The futures market gives them a 16% chance of making it to the Conference USA Championship, with the money line at +100 for them to appear in the title game. Our power rankings place them 110th in the nation, with a 60.4% chance of being bowl-eligible and a 12.8% chance of winning the Conference USA title.
Last season, Western Kentucky finished with an 8-5 overall record, going 4-3 on the road and 4-2 at home. They were 3-1 as underdogs and 5-4 as favorites. The Hilltoppers are looking to build on their bowl appearance from last season, and we are giving them a 60.4% chance of making it to a bowl game this year.
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers Stats
Western Kentucky’s offense last season was led by quarterback Caden Veltkamp, who threw for 387 yards and five touchdowns. This season, they have added TJ Finley, who threw for 3340 yards and 24 touchdowns at Texas State. The Hilltoppers were 36th in scoring last season, putting up 30.5 points per game, and they were 33rd in third down conversion percentage (43.5%).
Per game, Western Kentucky averaged 295.2 passing yards, which was 15th in the country. However, their rushing attack was less effective, averaging just 107.3 yards per game. Elijah Young, who rushed for 490 yards last season, is the top returning running back. In the passing game, Dalvin Smith returns after recording 513 receiving yards last season, and the Hilltoppers have also added Bryce Childress from New Mexico State.
Western Kentucky’s defense allowed 28.7 points per game last season, ranking 71st in the nation. They struggled to stop the run, giving up 191.8 rushing yards per game, which was the 152nd worst figure in college football. In the passing game, they allowed 229.7 yards per game, ranking 104th. Opposing quarterbacks completed 59.4% of their passes against them and had a combined passer rating of 84.7.
Alabama Crimson Tide
Alabama enters the season ranked 5th in our power rankings, with a 96.8% chance of being bowl-eligible. Last season, the Crimson Tide finished with a 12-2 overall record, including going 7-1 at home and 5-1 on the road. They were favored in 12 of their 14 games, going 11-1 as the favorite and 1-1 as the underdog.
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Our projections give Alabama a 13.8% chance of winning the Southeastern Conference and a 56.8% chance of making the College Football Playoff. The odds in the futures market have placed the Crimson Tide at +490 to win the Southeastern Conference and +230 to make it to the Conference title game, giving them a 30% chance of reaching the Conference Championship.
Alabama Crimson Tide Stats
Alabama’s offense was 15th in the country in scoring last season, averaging 34 points per game. They were effective on third down, converting 45.1% of their opportunities (21st). The Crimson Tide were also efficient in the passing game, ranking 4th in passing yards per attempt and 7th in passing yards per completion. Jalen Milroe, who threw for 2834 yards and 23 touchdowns last season, is the 4th best odds to win the Heisman Trophy this year (+1225).
On the ground, Alabama averaged 176.2 rushing yards per game, which was 26th in the nation. Jam Miller, who rushed for 201 yards last season, is the top returning running back for the Crimson Tide. The team also added transfer Germie Bernard, who had 419 receiving yards last year at Washington, to complement top returning receiver Kobe Prentice.
Alabama’s defense was strong last season, allowing just 19 points per game, which ranked 20th in the nation. They were tough against the run, giving up 125.1 rushing yards per game (45th), and their pass defense was solid, holding opponents to 191.1 passing yards per game. The Crimson Tide also finished 23rd in passing yards per attempt, giving up just 6.4 yards.
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers vs. Alabama Crimson Tide NCAA Football Betting Trends
- The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers are 3-2 in their last five games as an underdog.
- Conversely, the Alabama Crimson Tide are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as a favorite.
- Also, the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers are 5-5 ATS in their last ten road games.
- On the other side, the Alabama Crimson Tide have gone 4-6 across their last ten home games.
- Over the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers’ last 3 road games, the over/under record is 2-1.
- The Alabama Crimson Tide’s have an over/under record of 3-0 in their last 3 games at home.
4* Free 2024 Week 1 NCAA Betting Prediction: Alabama -32
Alabama is favored by -32 points in their week one matchup against Western Kentucky. We expect the final score to be 48-13 in favor of the Crimson Tide, making them our pick to cover the spread.
The over/under line is set at 59.5 points, and with our projected score of 61 points, we recommend taking the over in this matchup.
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