Free Week 12 Prediction: Cavaliers vs Hurricanes Odds
Looking for Virginia Cavaliers vs. Miami Hurricanes free picks? Week 12 betting sees the Cavaliers taking on the Hurricanes Saturday November 18th at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida. Cappers Picks provides complimentary handicapping picks all NCAA football season long so stay tuned for more FREE college football predictions like this Virginia Miami (FL) free pick.
College Football Handicapping: Week 12
(6-4) Virginia Cavaliers vs. Miami Hurricanes (9-0)
Date: Saturday, November 18th
Time: 12:00 pm EST
Venue: Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida
NCAA Football Spread: Miami (FL) -19.0
NCAA Betting Total: 50.5
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Miami has finally worked their way into the top 4 in the College Football Playoff Rankings after their thrashing of Notre Dame last weekend.
They will have to avoid the dreaded letdown game against a Virginia team that has been pretty inconsistent all season long.
The Cavaliers are 6-4 and will be going to a bowl game but they have some confusing results where they hardly looked the part of a bowl game quality team.
Despite their 6-4 record, they have a negative scoring margin, they give up more yards per play than they gain, and and they lost a home game by 31 to Boston College.
This is a Virginia team that handed now ranked Boise State one of their two losses. But, they also had that loss to Boston College as well as a 17 point loss to Pittsburgh.
The quarterback play from Kurt Benkert hasn’t been as good as his numbers show. He has a 21 to 7 touchdown to interception ratio and nearly 2500 passing yards. But, he is completing only 59 percent of his passes and is averaging just 6.2 yards per passing attempt.
The offense’s inconsistencies has led to some of their confusing results as the defense has been strong most of the season.
The defense is allowing opponents to complete just 53 percent of passes. They are sacking the quarterback on nearly 8% of dropbacks – above the FBS average of 6.3%.
They are also allowing opponents to turn red zone opportunities into points only 71% of the time – which is well below the FBS average of 83%. So, the defense is capable and could provide Miami with some problems if the offense is able to stay away from the dreaded “Turnover Chain.”
This game has now become almost as important as the Notre Dame game last week. Now that the Hurricanes have knocked off the Irish, a College Football Playoff berth is starting to feel very real.
The date with Clemson in the ACC Championship is set but despite their undefeated record, Miami likely can’t afford a loss before then.
All season, Miami has been creating turnovers and giving their offense short fields to work with. They are so reliant on creating turnovers that their major offensive inefficiencies have not been exposed.
Miami’s offense is converting just 29.4 percent of third down attempts. That ranks 126th in the FBS and even puts them behind teams such as Kansas and Baylor.
They are also only completing 56% of pass attempts. These are parts of Miami’s offense that haven’t cost them yet because they have become so good at creating turnovers.
Their 2.8 takeaways per game ranks 2nd in the FBS and is very easily their biggest reason for being undefeated.
Virginia is top 50 in the nation in fewest giveaways per game – just 1.3 so it won’t necessarily be easy to force the turnovers.
That being said, Notre Dame turned it over 4 times last week having only turned it over 6 total times before that game.
NCAA Football Handicapping Trends
- Under is 5-0 in Miami’s last 5 games.
- Virginia is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games against Miami.
- Virginia is 8-6-1 ATS in their last 15 road games.
Free Week 12 NCAA Football Pick
Before Miami blew out Notre Dame, they were just scraping by against some of the weaker teams in the ACC. I think the pressure is even higher on them now that they’ve broken into the top 4. Miami won’t be upset at home but it will be close.
4* Free NCAA Betting Pick: Virginia +19.0
The target on Miami’s back has grown even bigger and their eyes are likely starting to shift towards their date with Clemson in the ACC title game. They are talented enough that they will pull out the win but it will be a fight.
Week 12 Free Score Prediction: Miami (FL) 26 – Virginia 20
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