Free NCAA Pick: Virginia vs. Louisville Odds
Looking for Virginia Cavaliers vs. Louisville Cardinals free NCAA Week 11 picks & NCAA odds? NCAA betting sees the Cavaliers taking on the Cardinals on Thursday, November 9th at the L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium. Cappers Picks provides complimentary NCAA handicapping picks all season long including all NCAA Week 11 games so stay tuned for more FREE NCAA predictions like this Virginia Louisville matchup.
2023 NCAAF Handicapping Analysis: Week 11
(2-7) Virginia Cavaliers vs. Louisville Cardinals (8-1)
Date: Thursday, November 9th
Time: 7:30 ET
Venue: L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium, Louisville, KY
NCAA Week 11 ATS Betting Lines: (BET NOW!) Virginia +19.5 | Louisville -19.5
Week 11 CFB Moneyline Odds: Virginia +797 | Louisville -1463
College Football Betting Total: O/U 52
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These two have matched up 11 times over the years, and the Cardinals hold a 6-5 win advantage.
Louisville the #11 team in the country are 8-1 (5-0 at home), and they’re licking their chops at the chance to play Virginia this year who are having a down year at 2-7 (1-3 AWAY).
Come to think of it the Cardinals haven’t lost at home since Sept 16, 2022 vs. FSU.
If it all sounds too good to be true, it is. UVA took down Louisville on their most recent visit to town in 2021 overcoming a 2-TD 4th quarter deficit to come back and win 34-33.
I’m not sure they’ve got that in them this year, but I do think they’ll cover. READ on below.
Louisville took the most recent game between the team’s, picking up the 34-17 win over Virginia. The Louisville offense had a big game, putting up 34 points on 473 yards of total offense.
For the game, the Cardinals picked up 24 first downs while going 8/15 on 3rd down.
Defensively, they gave up 313 passing yards and 6 yards rushing.
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After trailing by -18 at halftime, Virginia could not make a comeback and lost their most recent game 45-17 to Georgia Tech.
Heading into this week’s matchup with Louisville, the Cavaliers have been favored in one game and the underdog in six.
Their ATS mark coming into the game is 4-3.
Virginia has put together an over/under record of 4-2-1 throughout this season. The average combined score in their games has been 55.6 points, and the standard over/under line has stood at 50.5 points.
Virginia Cavaliers Stats
Virginia comes into the game with an offense averaging 23.1, which places them at 72nd in the NCAA rankings. Their passing game has them ranked 55th nationally, with an average of 241.7 passing yards.
In the rushing department, they’re 99th in the nation, with 347 rushing attempts per game for the season.
On defense, Virginia comes into the game ranked 132nd in passing yards per game.
Opponents are throwing the ball an average of 31.3 times per contest vs. the Cavaliers. Overall, they are giving up 32.4 points per game, which is 126th in college football.
Against the run, they are 139th in the NCAA in rushing yards allowed.
On the offensive side of the ball, Virginia finished with two touchdowns against Georgia Tech, but did not find the endzone in the running game.
Overall, they finished with 232 passing yards and 119 yards rushing.
Louisville most recently took down Virginia Tech by a score of 34-3. The Cardinals went into the 4th quarter of this game leading by 17.
Against the spread, Louisville has gone 4-4 this season. The Cardinals have been favored seven times compared to one game as the underdog.
So far this season, Louisville boasts an over/under record of 3-5.
On average, their matchups have resulted in a combined score of 49.2 points, while the average over/under line has been 50.2 points.
Louisville Cardinals Stats
Louisville comes into the game with an offense averaging 32.9, which places them at 26th in the NCAA rankings.
Their passing game has them ranked 49th nationally, with an average of 252 passing yards. In the rushing department, they’re 25th in the nation, with 342 rushing attempts per game for the season.
Offensively, the Cardinals finished with four scores on the ground against Virginia Tech while running for 231 rushing yards.
In the passing attack, Louisville scored one time and threw the ball 13 times for 151 yards.
On defense, the Cardinals defense has 22 sacks and are 1st in QB hurries. So far, teams are scoring 16.3 points per game against them (57th). In terms of pass defense, they’re ranked 48th in the NCAA, allowing 196.4 passing yards per game.
Moreover, Louisville’s run defense is allowing 90.8 rushing yards per contest.
Virginia Cavaliers vs. Louisville Cardinals NCAA Football Betting Trends
- The Cavaliers are 4-1 in their last five games as an underdog.
- Conversely, the Cardinals are 3-2 ATS in their last five games as a favorite.
- Also, the Cavaliers are 6-4 ATS in their last ten road games.
- On the other side, the Cardinals have gone 3-7 across their last ten home games.
- Over the Cavaliers’ last 3 road games, the over/under record is 1-1-1.
- The Cardinals’ have an over/under record of 2-1 in their last 3 games at home.
Virginia vs. Louisville Line Movement
4* Free Week 11 NCAA Betting Prediction: Virginia +19.5
Louisville understands the importance of not underperforming against Virginia if they aim to reach the ACC championship game. My prediction is that they will win this game outright.
But, in this away underdog scenario, I like Virginia to cover the spread at +19.5.
Turnovers in the passing game have been a concern for Louisville this season, and I like UVA’s defense to capitalize on some plays this week to keep this scoreline respectable.
I really love the UNDER in this matchup. LVille has not allowed a TD in about 24 years!
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Louisville’s last 7 games against Virginia, plus the UNDER has hit in 4 of the last 5 for LVille. This one stays UNDER the 52.
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Virginia Cavaliers vs. Louisville Cardinals NCAA Betting Tweet Of The Day
Up Next 👉 Virginia
— Louisville Football (@LouisvilleFB) November 8, 2023
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