Free Week 10 Prediction: Minutemen vs Bulldogs Odds
Looking for UMass Minutemen vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs free picks? Week 10 betting sees the Minutemen taking on the Bulldogs Saturday November 4th at Davis Wade Stadium in Starkville, Mississippi. Cappers Picks provides complimentary handicapping picks all NCAA football season long so stay tuned for more FREE college football predictions like this Massachusetts Mississippi State free pick.
College Football Handicapping: Week 10
(2-6) UMass Minutemen vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs (6-2)
Date: Saturday, November 4th
Time: 12:00 pm EST
Venue: Davis Wade Stadium in Starkville, Mississippi
NCAA Football Spread: Mississippi State -28.0
NCAA Betting Total: 57.0
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Mississippi State has recaptured its form after getting blown out by Auburn and Georgia – now having won 3 straight.
UMass on the other hand dropped their first 6 games of the season but now have won 2 straight for the first time since 2014.
Last week, UMass used a game-tying field goal with 5 seconds left in regulation and then a game winning field goal in the second overtime period to pull off the upset at home over Appalachian State.
It was an ugly win as the Minutemen turned the ball over 4 times, committed 11 penalties, and converted just 3 of 16 third down attempts. But it was a win nonetheless and it brought them to 2-6 SU and 4-4 ATS on the season.
This will be UMass’s second SEC test of the season having barely lost to Tennessee 17-13 on the road a few weeks ago.
These two teams faced off last season as well when Mississippi State needed 34 second half points to win the game 47-35. The Minutemen somehow managed to lead for much of the game and keep it close despite getting outgained by 187 yards and losing the turnover battle by 2.
UMass has been in all of their games this season – despite being 2-6. They have not lost a game by more than 10 points and that is after losing 7 games last season by more than 10 points.
The Minutemen have been better defensively this season as they rank 52nd in the nation in yards allowed per game after ranking 98th last season. They have made improvements in all facets of the game from last year. They are averaging 5.7 yards per play – up from 4.8 last season, they are averaging 29.9 points per game – up from 22.4 last season, and they are 20th in the nation in passing yards per game up from 50th last season.
They do struggle to protect the football though and that explains how a team with overall decent team statistics is still 2-6. That will prove costly against Mississippi State as they have the defense to turn it over and the offense to capitalize on short fields.
Mississippi State Bulldogs
The Bulldogs looked to be a pretender in the SEC after getting blown out by Georgia and Auburn once they cracked the top 25.
But, they have responded with 3 straight wins – including convincing ones over Kentucky and Texas A&M. Now, they will get a brief break from the SEC schedule with a home game against the 2-6 Minutemen.
Dan Mullen has expressed his concern with UMass this week though – being very much aware of how the Bulldogs struggled against them last season and how much the Minutemen have improved this season.
The Bulldogs have reestablished their commitment to defense after allowing 80 points in the two losses to Georgia and Auburn. The defense ranks 15th in the nation in yards allowed per game – despite having those blowouts on their resume this season.
Where they should be able to exploit the Minutemen is with their rushing attack. UMass is allowing 4.7 yards per rushing attempt which should allow Nick Fitzgerald to continue his dominance on the ground.
Fitzgerald has rushed for 100 plus yards in 3 straight games while also throwing for 537 yards over that 3 game stretch.
The only two defenses to keep Fitzgerald under 5 yards per attempt this season were Georgia and Auburn and UMass has nowhere near the talent of those two units.
NCAA Football Handicapping Trends
- Over is 8-3 in Massachusetts’ last 11 games overall.
- Over is 7-3 in Massachusetts’ last 10 non-conference games.
- Mississippi State is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games overall
Free Week 10 NCAA Football Pick
Fitzgerald is growing in confidence and should give the Minutemen fits all game long. The Minutemen offense has proven they can score some points though so I think they will do their share in taking this game over the total.
4* Free NCAA Betting Pick: Over 57.0
Mississippi State might be a nice pick in this game as well as they seem to be refocused offensively after their two bad losses. Fitzgerald has really developed into a gameplan nightmare for opposing defensive coordinators – particularly ones who aren’t used to playing the SEC.
Week 10 Free Score Prediction: Mississippi State 51 – Massachusetts 17
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