Free NCAAF Pick: Green Wave vs. Wildcats Odds
Looking for Tulane Green Wave vs. Kansas State Wildcats Free NCAA picks & NCAA odds? NCAAF betting sees the Green Wave taking on the Wildcats on 9/19 at Bill Snyder Family Stadium, in Manhattan, KS. This free NCAA football pick is based on matchup analysis and documented handicapping data tracked by CappersPicks since 2004, with a focus on identifying the strongest betting angle for this Green Wave Wildcats matchup.
2026 NCAAF Handicapping – Tulane Green Wave vs Kansas State Wildcats
(1-1) Tulane Green Wave vs. Kansas State Wildcats (2-0)
Date: Sep 19, 2026
Time: 12:00 PM ET
Venue: Bill Snyder Family Stadium in Manhattan, KS
NCAAF Moneyline Odds: Green Wave +920 | Wildcats -1875 (Bet Now!)
Today’s NCAAF Spread Betting Odds: Green Wave +20.5 | Wildcats -20.5
NCAAF Football Gambling Total: O/U: 49.5
Here’s why I’m backing a K-State ATS bet below in my Green Wave Wildcats free pick & gambling prediction for this matchup.
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Green Wave vs. Wildcats Gameday
Tulane travels to Manhattan Saturday for a Week 3 matchup with Kansas State at Bill Snyder Family Stadium. Kickoff is set for noon ET on ESPN2.
The Green Wave enters at 1-1 after recovering from a 17-3 loss at Duke with a 28-24 home win over South Alabama. Tulane trailed 10-0 early and 24-21 late before Kadin Semonza directed the winning 78-yard touchdown drive.
Tulane needed some late work against South Alabama, but 1-1 looks considerably prettier than the alternative.
Kansas State hasn’t needed nearly as much drama. The Wildcats crushed Nicholls 71-3 before beating Washington State 34-7, giving them a 105-10 scoring advantage through two games.
That’s one way to avoid checking your blood pressure in September.
These teams know each other surprisingly well. Kansas State won 34-27 at Tulane in 2024, while the Green Wave walked into Manhattan and won 17-10 in 2022. Tulane leads the all-time series 2-1.
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It’s Week 3, Tulane Green Wave vs. Kansas State Wildcats, hopefully we get a great matchup.
Tulane Green Wave vs. Kansas State Wildcats Odds & Last 5
Kansas State opened as a massive home favorite, with the Wildcats laying 20.5 points. Tulane was priced deep into plus-money territory, while the opening total was around 51.5.
The total has taken the bigger move.
Tulane hasn’t covered through two games, losing outright as an underdog at Duke before failing to cover as a sizable favorite against South Alabama. The Green Wave did at least rediscover the end zone last Saturday after managing only three points in Durham.
Kansas State has been considerably less complicated.
The Wildcats covered comfortably against Nicholls and Washington State, scoring 71 and 34 points. They’ve also controlled the football for more than 34 minutes per game while converting a ridiculous 70.4% of their third downs.
Twenty-and-a-half is still a serious number. Kansas State has spent two weeks making serious numbers look fairly reasonable.
Wildcats Stats
Kansas State has scored 105 points through two games, with a rushing attack doing much of the damage. The Wildcats have already piled up 621 yards on the ground while averaging better than six yards per carry.
Rodney Fields Jr. leads the way with 206 rushing yards.
Avery Johnson has been just as productive through the air. He’s completed 37 of 55 passes for 391 yards and six touchdowns, although both of his interceptions came against Washington State.
Kansas State is converting 70% of its third downs, which is a fairly rude way to keep a defense working.
The Wildcats have been perfect when drives reach scoring territory.
Kansas State is 11-for-11 in the red zone with nine touchdowns. It also went 10-for-16 on third down against Washington State, controlling possession for more than 34 minutes in the 34-7 victory.
The defense has allowed only 10 points.
Washington State managed 65 passing yards and was held scoreless after its opening touchdown. Kansas State also produced four sacks and allowed the Cougars to convert only two of 12 third downs.
Green Wave Stats
Tulane has scored 31 points through two games, with 28 of them coming against South Alabama. The Green Wave has produced 416 passing yards and 277 on the ground.
Jaylin Lucas accounts for most of that rushing production.
Lucas exploded for 214 yards on only 11 carries against South Alabama, including an 80-yard touchdown. He enters Saturday with 217 rushing yards for the season, making him the obvious home-run threat Kansas State needs to contain.
Kadin Semonza has been careful with the football.
He has thrown for 352 yards with one touchdown and no interceptions. His best work came when Tulane needed it most, directing a seven-play, 78-yard drive that ended with Destyn Hill’s winning touchdown with 1:17 remaining against South Alabama.
The defense has been much less convincing.
Tulane allowed South Alabama to pile up 478 yards and possess the football for 37:40. That’s a dangerous formula before visiting a Kansas State offense that has barely let opposing defenses leave the field.
The Green Wave survived it last week. Asking for the same escape act in Manhattan is considerably more ambitious.
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Green Wave vs. Wildcats QB Matchup
Avery Johnson enters Week 3 with 391 passing yards, six touchdowns and two interceptions. He threw three scores in each of Kansas State’s first two victories.
His supporting cast has made life considerably easier.
Johnson already has six touchdown passes, and Kansas State hasn’t exactly needed him to play superhero.
The Wildcats have rushed for 621 yards, giving Johnson the luxury of operating behind an offense that can hurt defenses without throwing the football. Kansas State has also converted 19 of 27 third downs, so possessions haven’t been particularly brief.
Kadin Semonza has taken a different route.
The Tulane starter has completed 25 of 43 passes for 352 yards with one touchdown and no interceptions. He threw for 212 yards against South Alabama and delivered the winning touchdown pass to Hill in the final two minutes.
Keeping the zero in his interception column would certainly help Saturday.
Semonza won’t want to give Kansas State additional possessions, especially with the Wildcats already averaging 52.5 points. Tulane needs its quarterback to protect the football and Lucas to create enough explosive runs to keep this from becoming a possession avalanche.
Green Wave vs. Wildcats bottom line: Tulane has already won in Manhattan once this decade, but Kansas State is currently treating third downs like a formality, and that’s a miserable habit for a three-touchdown underdog to deal with.
Tulane Green Wave vs. Kansas State Wildcats Football Betting Trends
- The Green Wave is 2-1 straight up as an underdog in their last three games.
- Also, Tulane is 8-5 against the spread as an underdog over their last 13 games.
- The Green Wave has covered the spread in 69.2% of their last 26 away games.
- Kansas State is 5-0 straight up as a favorite in their last five games.
- Additionally, the Wildcats have a 3-0 record against the spread after a win in their last three games.
- The Wildcats have gone 18-10 against the spread in their last 28 home games.
Green Wave Wildcats Free Pick: Kansas State -20.5
Here is my Green Wave Wildcats free pick: Kansas State -20.5 is my play Saturday in Manhattan. The Wildcats have scored 105 points through two games, and this offense has been brutally efficient when it gets rolling.
Avery Johnson gives Tulane a much different problem than Duke did. He already has six touchdown passes, while Kansas State has piled up 621 rushing yards and converted 19 of 27 third downs.
That is a lot of ways to make 20.5 disappear.
Kansas State has scored on all 11 red-zone trips through two games.
Tulane showed some fight against South Alabama, but it also allowed 478 yards and needed a late touchdown to escape 28-24. Jaylin Lucas exploded for 214 rushing yards, yet the Green Wave held the ball for only 22:20.
That possession problem matters here.
Kansas State has averaged more than 34 minutes of possession and its defense has allowed only 10 points. If Tulane keeps giving away long drives, the Wildcats can create separation without needing cheap points.
The number is big, but Kansas State has already covered bigger numbers twice.
Tulane has enough offense to make Kansas State work for it. I still trust the Wildcats’ balance, third-down efficiency and defense to pull away after halftime.
Kansas State -20.5 is my play.
Today’s NCAAF Free Pick
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Kansas State Wildcats on X
GAME WEEK.
🆚 Tulane
🏟️ Bill Snyder Family Stadium
⏰ 11:00 AM CT
📺 ESPN2
🔗 https://t.co/CKpLmGEndG pic.twitter.com/pEpy1GILyW— K-State Football (@KStateFB) September 14, 2026
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