Free NCAAF Pick: Trojans vs. Tigers Odds
Looking for Troy Trojans vs. Missouri Tigers Free NCAA picks & NCAA odds? NCAAF betting sees the Trojans taking on the Tigers on 9/19 at Faurot Field at Memorial Stadium, in Columbia, MO. This free NCAA football pick is based on matchup analysis and documented handicapping data tracked by CappersPicks since 2004, with a focus on identifying the strongest betting angle for this Trojans Tigers matchup.
2026 NCAAF Handicapping – Troy Trojans vs Missouri Tigers
(2-0) Troy Trojans vs. Missouri Tigers (2-0)
Date: Sep 19, 2026
Time: 7:00 PM ET
Venue: Faurot Field at Memorial Stadium in Columbia, MO
NCAAF Moneyline Odds: Trojans +1933 | Tigers -5380 (Bet Now!)
Today’s NCAAF Spread Betting Odds: Trojans +27 | Tigers -27
NCAAF Football Gambling Total: O/U: 50.5
Here’s why I’m backing an OVER bet below in my Trojans Tigers free pick & gambling prediction for this matchup.
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Trojans vs. Tigers Gameday
Saturday night brings Troy’s first road test of the season as the Trojans travel to Columbia to face No. 20 Missouri at Faurot Field. Kickoff is set for 7:00 PM ET on SEC Network+.
Troy is 2-0 after opening with a 24-21 win over Sam Houston and following it with a 34-17 victory over Alabama State. Both came at home, so this is a fairly substantial jump in neighborhood for the Trojans.
Troy handled its first two assignments, but Missouri is a considerably nastier first road trip.
Missouri is also 2-0, beating Arkansas-Pine Bluff 54-14 before going into Lawrence and knocking off Kansas 38-21. The Tigers pulled away in the second half against the Jayhawks and arrive home with 92 points already on the board.
Both teams are unbeaten, but they’re entering Saturday from very different positions. Troy survived a three-point opener before handling Alabama State, while Missouri has won its first two games by 40 and 17 points.
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It’s Week 3, Troy Trojans vs. Missouri Tigers, and now we find out how Troy’s clean start travels against a ranked SEC opponent.
Troy Trojans vs. Missouri Tigers Odds & Last 5
Missouri is a massive home favorite, with the Tigers sitting around -5000 on the moneyline and Troy roughly +1900.
The current spread has Missouri laying about 27 points, with the total sitting at 50.5.
Troy has done what it needed to do through two home games, scoring 58 points while allowing 38. The Trojans squeezed past Sam Houston in the opener before putting together a more comfortable 34-17 win over Alabama State.
Missouri has been considerably more explosive, scoring 92 points through two games. The Tigers crushed Arkansas-Pine Bluff before beating Kansas 38-21 on the road, and now they come home with the sportsbooks asking bettors to lay nearly four touchdowns.
Tigers Stats
Missouri’s offense has piled up 92 points through two games, with 649 passing yards and 383 on the ground. The Tigers have also produced 54 first downs, so this hasn’t exactly been an offense living off a couple of lucky explosives.
Austin Simmons has taken control at quarterback, throwing for 544 yards and seven touchdowns without an interception. He threw for 292 yards and three scores against Kansas after tossing four first-half touchdowns in his Missouri debut.
Seven touchdown passes without a pick is a pretty efficient way to introduce yourself to a new fan base.
Jamal Roberts leads the Tigers with 172 rushing yards and two touchdowns, while Xai’Shaun Edwards has added 90 yards and a score.
Donovan Olugbode has been Simmons’ biggest receiving weapon with 13 catches for 228 yards and three touchdowns.
Missouri has allowed 35 points through two games and has five sacks, two interceptions and a fumble recovery. Kansas had some early success last week, but the Tigers shut down the Jayhawks when the game started getting serious.
Trojans Stats
Troy has opened 2-0 for the first time since 2013, and the offense looked much sharper against Alabama State. The Trojans finished with 427 total yards in that 34-17 victory, including 201 through the air and 226 on the ground. Goose Crowder has thrown for 366 yards and four touchdowns without an interception through two games.
He wasn’t asked to carry the offense against Alabama State, which is probably exactly how Troy would prefer to operate.
Jaheim Merriweather leads the running game with 149 yards and three touchdowns, while Gavin Griffin has added 137 yards. Merriweather did most of his damage last week, rushing for 127 yards and three scores as Troy leaned heavily on the ground game.
The Trojans have allowed 38 points through two games and recorded seven sacks.
Troy also has an interception and a fumble recovery, and the defense held Alabama State scoreless in the fourth quarter after the Hornets pulled within striking distance.
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Trojans vs. Tigers QB Matchup
Austin Simmons has wasted very little time settling into Missouri’s offense. The Ole Miss transfer has 544 passing yards, seven touchdowns and no interceptions through his first two starts with the Tigers.
His performance at Kansas was the more revealing test. Simmons threw for 292 yards and three touchdowns on the road, then Missouri leaned on its running game to bleed away much of the second half before he added the finishing touchdown late.
Simmons has been nearly mistake-free, while Crowder now gets his first road start against an SEC defense.
Goose Crowder has been clean himself, throwing for 366 yards and four touchdowns without an interception. He threw three scores in the 24-21 win over Sam Houston before Troy used a much heavier rushing attack against Alabama State.
Tucker Kilcrease remains behind Crowder, but Troy hasn’t needed much from him through two games.
That leaves this matchup squarely on Crowder, who now goes from two comfortable home dates to a sold-out Faurot Field against the No. 20 team in the country.
Troy Trojans vs. Missouri Tigers bottom line: Missouri owns the obvious talent advantage, but 50.5 isn’t an enormous total if Troy can contribute enough points to keep the Tigers’ offense working.
Troy Trojans vs. Missouri Tigers Football Betting Trends
- The Trojans are 20-5 against the spread in their last 25 away games.
- Also, Troy is 23-7 straight up after a win in their last 30 games.
- The Trojans have a 16-7 record against the spread as underdogs in their last 23 games.
- The Tigers are 26-0 straight up as favorites in their last 26 games.
- Additionally, Missouri is 17-6 against the spread as favorites in their last 23 games.
- The Tigers have gone over the total in 7 of their last 9 home games.
Trojans Tigers Free Pick: Over 50.5
Here is my Trojans Tigers free pick: Over 50.5 is my play Saturday night. Missouri has already scored 92 points in two games, and Austin Simmons has given this offense an immediate passing threat. Asking the Tigers to handle a healthy chunk of this number isn’t exactly asking for charity.
Troy can help. The Trojans have scored 58 points themselves, and Goose Crowder has four touchdown passes without an interception through two games.
Missouri’s defense has been solid, but Kansas still put 21 on the board last week. Troy doesn’t need to turn this into a shootout; getting into the high teens could be enough if the Tigers continue scoring at their current pace.
Missouri doing most of the heavy lifting is fine by me, as long as Troy brings something.
The Tigers have gone Over in seven of their last nine home games, while Troy has enough balance between Crowder and its running game to avoid being completely helpless here. That’s important with Missouri laying nearly four touchdowns.
There is some blowout risk, but that doesn’t automatically hurt an Over. Missouri has already hung 54 on Arkansas-Pine Bluff and 38 at Kansas, so the Tigers have shown they can push a total without needing much cooperation.
Give me a few Troy scores and let Missouri handle the rest.
Over 50.5 is my play.
Today’s NCAAF Free Pick
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Missouri Tigers on X
Breakout performance from @HopkinsDaeden! 💥 pic.twitter.com/ImKFpOzJNm
— Mizzou Football (@MizzouFootball) September 16, 2026
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