Free NCAAF Pick: Bobcats vs. Longhorns Odds
Looking for Texas State Bobcats vs. Texas Longhorns Free NCAA picks & NCAA odds? NCAAF betting sees the Bobcats taking on the Longhorns on 9/5 at Darrell K. Royal Texas Memorial Stadium, in Austin, TX. This free NCAA football pick is based on matchup analysis and documented handicapping data tracked by CappersPicks since 2004, with a focus on identifying the strongest betting angle for this Bobcats Longhorns matchup.
2026 NCAAF Handicapping – Texas State Bobcats vs Texas Longhorns
(0-0) Texas State Bobcats vs. Texas Longhorns (0-0)
Date: Sep 05, 2026
Time: 3:30 PM ET
Venue: Darrell K. Royal Texas Memorial Stadium in Austin, TX
NCAAF Moneyline Odds: Bobcats +2000 | Longhorns -10000 (Bet Now!)
Today’s NCAAF Spread Betting Odds: Bobcats +30.5 | Longhorns -30.5
NCAAF Football Gambling Total: O/U: 60
Here’s why I’m backing an OVER bet below in my Bobcats Longhorns free pick & gambling prediction for this matchup.
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Bobcats vs. Longhorns Gameday
The Texas State Bobcats visit the Texas Longhorns in Week 1 of the 2026 college football season. The game will be played at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium in Austin.
Fans can catch the action on ESPN at 3:30 PM ET.
Texas State finished the 2025 regular season with a 6-6 record. The Bobcats closed the year with three straight regular-season victories before facing Rice in the Armed Forces Bowl. Texas State dominated that matchup 41-10 to finish 7-6 overall.
Texas State brings a dangerous offense to Austin, but the Bobcats face a major jump in competition.
Texas finished last season with a 10-3 record after another strong campaign under Steve Sarkisian. The Longhorns closed the year by beating Michigan 41-27 in the Citrus Bowl. Texas enters the 2026 season ranked #5 in the AP Poll and #4 in the Coaches Poll.
These programs have met only once before, with Texas winning 36-0 in Austin in 1930. Texas State enters its first season as a Pac-12 member, while the Longhorns begin another season with College Football Playoff expectations.
Both teams open their 2026 schedules Saturday.
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2026 College Football Handicapping
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It’s Week 1, Texas State Bobcats vs. Texas Longhorns, hopefully we get a great matchup.
Texas State Bobcats vs. Texas Longhorns Odds & Last 5
The betting odds heavily favor Texas in Saturday’s season opener. Texas State is a massive underdog around +2350 on the moneyline, while Texas sits around -10000. The spread has the Longhorns favored by 29.5 points.
Texas State finished last season on a four-game winning streak. The Bobcats capped that run by crushing Rice 41-10 in the Armed Forces Bowl, finishing the season with 248 rushing yards. That victory completed a 7-6 season for Texas State.
Texas also finished 2025 on a high note. The Longhorns beat Michigan 41-27 in the Citrus Bowl behind 221 passing yards and 258 rushing yards. Texas finished 10-3 and won seven of its final eight games.
Longhorns Stats
The Texas Longhorns produced 4,951 total yards during the 2025 season. Texas threw for 3,259 yards while adding another 1,692 yards on the ground. The Longhorns finished their 13-game season at 10-3.
Texas also received another strong defensive performance last season. The Longhorns recorded 38 sacks and intercepted 16 passes. That defense helped Texas win seven of its final eight games.
Arch Manning returns after throwing for 3,163 yards during his first full season as the starter. He completed 248-of-404 passes with 26 touchdowns and seven interceptions. Manning also rushed for 399 yards and a team-high 10 touchdowns.
Ryan Wingo returns after leading Texas with 883 receiving yards last season. The Longhorns also added plenty of talent around Manning during the offseason. Texas enters 2026 with another roster built to contend nationally.
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Bobcats Stats
The Texas State Bobcats were one of the country’s most productive offensive teams last season. They scored 474 points while averaging 36.5 points per game. Texas State generated 6,147 total yards across 13 games.
The Bobcats were particularly dangerous on the ground. Texas State rushed for 2,887 yards and 36 touchdowns while averaging 5.2 yards per carry. The offense also threw for 3,260 yards and 21 touchdowns.
Texas State finished 2025 with four consecutive victories. The Bobcats closed the regular season with wins over Southern Miss, ULM and South Alabama before beating Rice 41-10. That strong finish pushed Texas State to 7-6 overall.
Brad Jackson returns after throwing for 3,224 yards with 21 touchdowns and seven interceptions. Beau Sparks caught 84 passes for 1,200 yards and 10 touchdowns, while Lincoln Pare finished his final season with 1,128 rushing yards. Jackson and Sparks give the Bobcats proven production entering 2026.
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Bobcats vs. Longhorns QB Matchup
Arch Manning returns at quarterback for the Texas Longhorns. He started all 13 games last season and threw for 3,163 yards. Manning finished with 26 passing touchdowns and seven interceptions.
Manning was particularly effective late in the 2025 season. He generated 1,714 passing yards over his final six games and earned Citrus Bowl MVP honors against Michigan. His experience gives Texas an established leader entering 2026.
Brad Jackson returns at quarterback for the Texas State Bobcats. He started all 13 games last season and completed 71.3 percent of his passes. Jackson threw for 3,224 yards with 21 touchdowns and seven interceptions.
Jackson also rushed for 744 yards and 17 touchdowns last season. He accounted for a school-record 3,968 yards of total offense and earned Armed Forces Bowl MVP honors. The Bobcats enter Week 1 with an experienced dual-threat quarterback leading their offense.
Texas State Bobcats vs. Texas Longhorns bottom line: Texas State enters 2026 with an explosive offense and a four-game winning streak, while #5 Texas opens at home with a talented roster coming off a 10-win season and Citrus Bowl victory.
Texas State Bobcats vs. Texas Longhorns Football Betting Trends
- The Bobcats are 3-0 straight up in their last three games.
- Also, Texas State is 16-13 against the spread as an underdog in their last 29 games.
- Texas is 26-3 straight up as a favorite in their last 29 games.
- The Longhorns have gone 21-2 straight up in their last 23 home games.
- Additionally, Texas has hit the over in all three of their games as a favorite this season.
- The Longhorns are 4-1 against the spread in their last five home games.
Bobcats Longhorns Free Pick: Over 60.5
Here is my Bobcats Longhorns free pick: Texas State can score, Texas has plenty of firepower, and that combination makes this total interesting. I’m looking Over in Austin.
Texas State averaged 36.5 points and 472.8 yards per game last season, finishing 7-6 after scoring 41 points in its bowl win over Rice. The Bobcats reached 30 points in 10 of their 13 games.
Texas opens its season at home with Arch Manning back after throwing for 3,163 yards last year. The Longhorns have also produced 3 straight 10-win seasons under Steve Sarkisian. Plenty of weapons.
Texas State’s offense gives this game a better chance of becoming a shootout than the huge spread might suggest.
Additionally, the Bobcats allowed 29.0 points per game last season, so Texas should have opportunities to pile up touchdowns. The question is whether Texas State can contribute enough against a talented Longhorns defense.
Can the Bobcats find 17 or 20 points? I think they can.
This is Game #1 for both teams, and an early offensive rhythm could quickly turn this matchup into the kind of back-and-forth scoring game needed to clear the total.
The market has moved around, but with 60.5 available, my college football numbers lean toward the Over. I’ll play the Over 60.5.
Today’s NCAAF Free Pick
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NCAAF Betting Tweet Of The Day
Game ready🤘 pic.twitter.com/LvR0Nnrsma
— Texas Football (@TexasFootball) September 3, 2026
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