Free Week 11 Prediction: Mustangs vs Midshipmen Odds
Looking for Southern Methodist Mustangs vs. Navy Midshipmen free picks? Week 11 betting sees the Mustangs taking on the Midshipmen Saturday November 11th at Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium in Annapolis, Maryland. Cappers Picks provides complimentary handicapping picks all NCAA football season long so stay tuned for more FREE college football predictions like this Southern Methodist Navy free pick.
College Football Handicapping: Week 11
(6-3) SMU Mustangs vs. Navy Midshipmen (5-3)
Date: Saturday, November 11th
Time: 3:30 pm EST
Venue: Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium in Annapolis, Maryland
NCAA Football Spread: Navy -4.5
NCAA Betting Total: 68.0
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3 straight losses after a 5-0 start have the Midshipmen reeling and in desperation mode for a bowl bid with a slate of all tough games remaining.
SMU is coming off yet another solid performance where they nearly knocked off ranked and unbeaten UCF before falling 31-24.
The Mustangs are enjoying a 6-3 season with a 3-2 conference record. They have an outside shot at making the AAC championship game with AAC West division leader Memphis still left on their schedule.
The Mustangs run one of the nation’s fastest paced offenses – averaging the 7th most offensive plays per game. Not only are they uptempo but they are successful too – ranking 20th in the nation in yards per play.
SMU is also one of the most mistake free offenses as well as they average the 11th fewest giveaways per game.
These will all be important aspects of their performance on Saturday as they look to avenge a 75-31 loss to Navy in last season’s finale. That cost the Mustangs their 6th win which would have got them to .500 and made them bowl eligible.
In that game, the Mustangs allowed Navy to gain 496 yards on the ground at 10.3 yards per rush. The SMU offense showed up in the game – converting 12 of 19 first downs and managing 427 yards of total offense.
The rush defense is improved from last season but still not great. They are allowing 4.6 yards per rush attempt which is down from last season’s 5.3 per attempt but still only 73rd in the nation.
Navy doesn’t turn the ball over so SMU will have to get stops on early downs and force them into passing situations on third down where they have struggled.
Navy has stumbled a bit after their hot start. They dropped games to UCF and Memphis who are the two division leaders in the conference. But last week’s loss against Temple was a bit of a surprise as they entered they game as 7 point favorites.
Quarterback Zach Abey returned from a concussion last week and was highly ineffective. He managed just 60 yards on the ground on 25 attempts.
Abey left the game with a shoulder injury and his status remains up in the air for Saturday. His backup Garret Lewis was more effective throwing the ball than Abey has been when he entered the game last week but he doesn’t present the same threat running that Abey does in the Navy triple-option attack.
Abey’s status is something to keep an eye on but it will come down to the Navy defense. They were picked apart by one of the worst offenses in the nation last week and will face a much bigger test this week. Navy was down a starting cornerback last week due to suspension but they have other holes as well.
Navy is sacking the quarterback on just 4.3% of dropbacks which is 99th in the nation. Getting pressure will be key to try to disrupt the uptempo Mustang attack.
The Navy pass defense is 117th in the nation in yards allowed per pass attempt. That will be problematic against a SMU offense that is 37th in the nation in yards per pass attempt with 7.9
NCAA Football Handicapping Trends
- SMU is 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games overall.
- Over is 14-2 in Navy’s last 16 games in November
- Over is 10-3 in Navy’s last 13 home games.
- The last two matchups have averaged 88 total points.
Free Week 11 NCAA Football Pick
SMU definitely has the capability to go on the road and pull off the upset. But, their struggles stopping the run could lead to some big plays by Navy. The SMU will be playing uptempo regardless and should have few issues against the porous Navy pass defense.
4* Free NCAA Betting Pick: Over 68
Whether or not Abey plays, the Navy offense will find ways to break big runs and put points on the board. SMU should move it with ease – especially in the second half.
Week 11 Free Score Prediction: Southern Methodist 43 – Navy 40
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