Free NCAA Pick: SMU vs. Virginia Odds
Looking for SMU Mustangs vs. Virginia Cavaliers free NCAA Week 13 picks & NCAA odds? NCAA betting sees the Mustangs taking on the Cavaliers on Saturday, November 23rd at the Scott Stadium. Cappers Picks provides complimentary NCAA handicapping picks all season long including all NCAA Week 13 games so stay tuned for more FREE NCAA predictions like this SMU Virginia matchup.
2024 NCAAF Handicapping Analysis: Week 13
(9-1) SMU Mustangs vs. Virginia Cavaliers (5-5)
Date: Saturday, November 23rd
Time: 12:00 ET
Venue: Scott Stadium, Charlottesville, VA
Week 13 ATS Betting Lines: (BET NOW!) SMU -9.5 | Virginia +9.5
Week 13 CFB Moneyline Odds: SMU -343 | Virginia +269
College Football Betting Total: O/U 58
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Get ready for the fireworks in Charlottesville this Saturday! The Virginia Cavaliers (5-5, 3-3 ACC) host the red-hot SMU Mustangs (9-1, 6-0 AAC) in what promises to be a thrilling first-ever matchup.
ESPN2 will be covering the week 13 matchup between SMU and UVA as the game kicks off at 12:00 ET from Scott Stadium.
The over/under line is currently sitting at 58 points. The money line odds have Virginia at +269 as the underdog, and SMU is the favorite at -9.5 points.
With bowl eligibility on the line for Virginia, and Senior Day adding an emotional edge, the Cavaliers have all the motivation in the world to put up a fight.
Despite SMU’s dominant season, Virginia has been no pushover at home, boasting an impressive 7-2-1 record over their last 10 home games.
The Mustangs’ high-powered offense meets a UVA team desperate to extend their season—it’s a classic clash of urgency vs. dominance.
Can Virginia shock the AAC powerhouse? Tune in for what’s sure to be an electric showdown!
SMU Mustangs
SMU enters Week 13 with a 9-1 record and a 15th-place ranking in our CFB power rankings. They have a 100% chance of being bowl-eligible and a 36.4% chance of winning the Atlantic Coast. Nationally, they have the 13th best odds of making the CFB playoff at 41.3%.
The Mustangs are 3-0 on the road and 4-1 at home this season. They’ve been favored in six of their ten games, going 5-1 as the favorite. Their average scoring margin is +17.5 points per game, and they are 5-3 against the spread.
SMU’s over/under record is 5-3, with their games averaging 62.3 points. This week’s line is set at 58 points, higher than their average line of 53.9 points.
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SMU Mustangs Stats
Heading into week 13, SMU’s offense is averaging 39.9 points per game, ranking 6th nationally. They are 28th in our offensive power rankings. Their run game is strong, with 197.4 rushing yards per game on 39.2 attempts. Brashard Smith has rushed for 1,023 yards, averaging 6 yards per carry, and has scored 12 touchdowns.
Quarterback Kevin Jennings has thrown for 2,198 yards with a passer rating of 107. SMU ranks 19th in passer rating and third-down conversions, converting 46.1% of their attempts. Jennings has 15 touchdown passes and six interceptions, completing 65.4% of his throws. Key’Shawn Smith leads the receivers with 415 yards and four touchdowns.
SMU’s defense ranks 10th nationally against the run, allowing just 100.5 rushing yards per game. In their recent game, they gave up 180 rushing yards and three touchdowns on 43 attempts. Through the air, SMU allowed 237 passing yards but also forced an interception.
Opposing quarterbacks have completed just 54.4% of their passes against SMU, the 19th-lowest rate in the country. However, SMU’s defense ranks 133rd in passing yards allowed, giving up 249.6 yards per game.
Virginia Cavaliers
Virginia enters Week 13 with a 5-5 record, hosting SMU. They’ve gone 1-3 at home and 3-2 on the road. Currently ranked 68th in our power rankings, the Cavaliers have a 39.5% chance of becoming bowl-eligible. So far, they’ve been favored in five games and have a -2.7 average scoring margin this season.
Against the spread, Virginia is 5-3-1, with a 3-1-1 record on the road and 2-2 at home. As favorites, they’ve gone 2-2-1 ATS, while they are 3-1 as underdogs.
The over/under line for this week is 58 points. Virginia’s games have averaged 52.3 points, and their average over/under line is 54.8 points, with a 3-6 record against the total this season.
Virginia Cavaliers Stats
Virginia’s offense has been centered around their passing game, ranking 29th in passing attempts per game. They are 68th in scoring, with 24.8 points per game, and we have them 85th in our offensive power rankings heading into week 13. Anthony Colandrea has thrown for 2,017 yards, completing 61.4% of his passes, with 12 touchdowns and 11 interceptions, giving him a passer rating of 79.
Malachi Fields leads the receiving corps with 746 yards and four touchdowns on 49 receptions. Virginia is converting just 35.1% of their third-down attempts, and their rushing attack is averaging 144 yards per game.
Virginia’s defense has struggled this season, allowing 27.5 points per game. In their recent game against Notre Dame, they gave up 35 points, including three passing touchdowns, while allowing 450 total yards. Notre Dame rushed for 236 yards and threw for 214 yards against Virginia’s defense.
Opponents have averaged 258 passing yards per game against Virginia, ranking them 145th nationally. Quarterbacks have completed 60.4% of their passes with a 90.5 passer rating. On the ground, Virginia has allowed 143.9 rushing yards per game on 34.2 attempts per contest.
SMU Mustangs vs. Virginia Cavaliers NCAA Football Betting Trends
- The SMU Mustangs are 3-2 in their last five games as a favorite.
- Conversely, the Virginia Cavaliers are 3-2 ATS in their last five games as an underdog.
- Also, the SMU Mustangs are 5-5 ATS in their last ten road games.
- On the other side, the Virginia Cavaliers have gone 7-2-1 across their last ten home games.
- Over the SMU Mustangs’ last 3 road games, the over/under record is 2-1.
- The Virginia Cavaliers’ have an over/under record of 1-2 in their last 3 games at home.
4* Free 2024 Week 13 NCAA Betting Prediction: Virginia +9.5
SMU is favored by -9.5 points in their week 13 matchup against Virginia. We expect the Cavaliers to cover the spread, with a projected final score of 30-27 in their favor.
Wrong team favored this week! Outright win for the Cavaliers.
For the over/under, with the line set at 58 points, our projection aligns just below this line at 57. I’d say pass on this total play, unless you really think the defenses show up on Saturday.
I don’t really see a clear advantage to taking the over or under.
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SMU Mustangs vs. Virginia Cavaliers NCAA Betting Tweet Of The Day
Last one in Scott 🏟️
Game 1️⃣1️⃣#UVAStrong | #GoHoos ⚔️ pic.twitter.com/nKt6tfHSYG— Virginia Football (@UVAFootball) November 18, 2024
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