Free Week 1 Prediction: Mustangs vs Mean Green Odds
Looking for SMU Mustangs vs. North Texas Mean Green free picks? Week 1 College football betting sees the Mustangs taking on the Mean Green Saturday, September 3rd at Apogee Stadium, Denton, Texas. Cappers Picks provides complimentary handicapping picks all NCAA football season long so stay tuned for more FREE college football predictions.
(0-0) SMU Mustangs vs. North Texas Mean Green (0-0)
Date: Saturday, September 3rd
Time: 7:00 PM
Venue: Apogee Stadium, Denton, Texas
NCAA Football Spread: SMU -9.5
NCAA Betting Total: 68.5
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NCAA Football Handicapping
With one of SMU’s two wins from 2015 coming against North Texas, they will be as confident entering this game as a 2-10 team could be.
On the other side, North Texas brings back 15 starters and has revenge on their mind.
These two teams combined for three wins in 2015. Both should be much improved but it may not reflect in their record as both play difficult schedules.
This will be a game both teams want badly because who knows when they will taste winning again.
The Mustangs bring back 9 offensive starters from a unit that averaged 27.9 points per game in 2015. They bring back 73 starts of experience on the offensive line as well as quarterback Matt Davis.
Davis led the Mustangs in rushing with 761 yards and 10 rushing touchdowns to go along with his 16 touchdowns through the air.
Running back Xavier Jones also returns after rushing for 632 yards and 10 touchdowns last season.
Most importantly, Courtland Sutton returns after 862 receiving yards and 9 touchdowns in 2015. He was Davis’s number one target and should be poised for a 1000 receiving yards this season.
So, the weapons are there and the offense has experience.
How much will it be able to do against a schedule that features Baylor, TCU, Temple, and Houston all before the end of October? Well, who knows. But it should be explosive and entertaining against a Mean Green defense that gave up 41 points per game in 2015.
On the defensive side of the ball though, the Mustangs lose just four starters but were the second worst scoring defense in the nation.
That is largely due to the 50 plus points that they gave up to Baylor, TCU, Temple, Navy, and Memphis.
North Texas is nowhere near the level of those teams but the defense will still be vulnerable to big plays.
North Texas Mean Green
The 6th worst defense in the nation in 2015 gave up over 5 touchdowns per game. In most preseason projections, the Mean Green are only seeing one of their players show up on either first or second team all conference. That would be their punter.
Not a great outlook for conference play but games against SMU and Florida await them before they even get a shot at CUSA teams.
They will start Alabama transfer Alec Morris at quarterback and are expected to run a new spread style offense under new coach Seth Littrell and coordinator Graham Harrell.
An Alabama caliber recruit plus an experienced offensive line could fit well into that offensive style.
SMU’s defense was somehow worse than North Texas last season and struggled mightily to teams that ran a spread style offense.
One thing North Texas will need to fix if they want to win this game or any other game is their red zone offense. North Texas was the 9th worse in the nation last season scoring in just 71 percent of their red zone trips.
The spread offense should help that as well as returning their top rusher in Jeffrey Wilson.
NCAA Football Handicapping Trends
- Over is 7-1 in SMU’s last 8 games in September
- Over is 7-1 in North Texas’s last 8 games in September
- Over is 8-2 in SMU’s last 10 road games
- North Texas is 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games overall
- Over is 7-3 in SMU’s last 10 games overall
Free Week 1 NCAA Football Prediction
A Mustang offense that returns all of its weapons and a new Mean Green offensive style that SMU struggled with last season spell a lot of points in this one. North Texas should keep this one within 10 at home but the more confident pick is the over.
4* Free NCAA Betting Pick: Game total over 68.5
Both defenses gave up more than 40 per game last season and each team’s offense will be their strong point again this season. Expect a good old Texas shootout.
Week 1 Free Score Prediction: SMU 48 – North Texas 44
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