Free NCAA Pick: San Diego State vs. Air Force Odds
Looking for San Diego State Aztecs vs. Air Force Falcons free NCAA Week 5 picks & NCAA odds? NCAA betting sees the Aztecs taking on the Falcons on Saturday, September 30th at the Falcon Stadium. Cappers Picks provides complimentary NCAA handicapping picks all season long including all NCAA Week 5 games so stay tuned for more FREE NCAA predictions like this San Diego State Air Force matchup.
2023 NCAAF Handicapping Analysis: Week 5
(2-3) San Diego State Aztecs vs. Air Force Falcons (4-0)
Date: Saturday, September 30th
Time: 8:00 ET
Venue: Falcon Stadium
NCAA Week 5 ATS Betting Lines: (BET NOW!) San Diego State +10.5 | Air Force -10.5
Week 5 CFB Moneyline Odds: San Diego State +302 | Air Force -399
College Football Betting Total: O/U 43.5
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Air Force will look to carry over the momentum from last year’s 13-3 win over San Diego State. Defensively, the Falcons held San Diego State to just 188 passing yards.
On offense, Air Force went 4/17 on 3rd down and compiled 285 yards of total offense.
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San Diego State Aztecs
San Diego State’s most recent game was against Boise State, resulting in a 34-31 loss to the Broncos.
San Diego State has gone into three games as the favorite this season and one game as the underdog. Their ATS record is currently 1-3.
In five games played, the average over/under line for San Diego State’s games has been set at 48.4 points. These contests have seen an average combined score of 48.4 points, resulting in an OU record of 1-3.
San Diego State Aztecs Stats
Heading into their matchup vs. Air Force, the Aztecs’ offense is averaging 151.6 rushing yards per game, along with 4 yards per attempt. They currently hold the 38th rank in rushing yards and 38th rank in passing yards, amassing an average of 194.8 yards per game.
In terms of scoring, San Diego State is at 21.2 points per game, which is 57th in the NCAA.
The Aztecs’ defense has allowed 166.2 rushing yards per game this season, ranking 83rd. Opponents are averaging 266 passing yards, and opposing quarterbacks hold a passer rating of 78.1 against San Diego State.
They currently rank 15th in points allowed in the NCAA.
The Aztecs’ finished with 23 pass attempts vs. Boise State, accumulating 273 yards and one score. In the rushing game, they averaged 4.2 yards per carry and notched three rushing touchdowns.
Air Force Falcons
The Falcons are looking to ride the momentum of their convincing 45-20 win over San Jose State.
Against the spread, Air Force have been the underdog in all of their games and are undefeated against the spread at 2-0. Their current scoring differential is +22.
This season, Air Force has an over/under record of 2-0.
Their games have, on average, produced a combined total of 47.5 points, with the typical over/under line being 45.2 points.
Air Force Falcons Stats
The Falcons’ offense is set to face San Diego State while averaging 337.5 rushing yards per game and 5 yards per attempt. In the national rankings, they currently stand at 1st for rushing yards and 1st for passing yards, with an average of 55.2 yards per matchup.
Overall, Air Force is putting up 34.8 points per game, which is 31st nationally.
In terms of rushing, the Falcons’ offense managed six rushing touchdowns against San Jose State and covered 400 yards on 73 attempts. However, their passing game didn’t yield a touchdown, producing 28 yards with 2 passes attempted.
The Falcons defense will take the field with 11 sacks and are 1st QB hurries. When it comes to points allowed, they’re at 12.8 points per game (25th). Against the pass, the team is 22nd in the NCAA, allowing 161 passing yards per game.
Additionally, Air Force’s run defense has 64.2 rushing yards per contest.
San Diego State Aztecs vs. Air Force Falcons NCAA Football Betting Trends
- The Aztecs are 3-2 in their last five games as an underdog.
- Conversely, the Falcons are 3-2 ATS in their last five games as a favorite.
- Also, the Aztecs are 5-4-1 ATS in their last ten road games.
- On the other side, the Falcons have gone 7-3 across their last ten home games.
- Over the Aztecs’ last 3 road games, the over/under record is 2-1.
- The Falcons’ have an over/under record of 1-2 in their last 3 games at home.
San Diego State vs. Air Force Line Movement
| Open-ML | Live-ML | Open-Spread | Live-Spread | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aztecs | +290 | +302 | +10.5 | +10.5 |
| Falcons | -385 | -399 | -10.5 | -10.5 |
4* Free Week 5 NCAA Betting Prediction: San Diego State +10.5
Air Force got after it in the season finale last year and snapped the Aztecs’ nine-game series winning streak. Massive REVENGE factor in this one on Saturday between these two rivals! I love this matchup.
Air Force are 0-5 SU in their last 5 games when playing at home against SDSU, and SDSU are 8-3 ATS in their L11 games vs. Air Force.
Air Force’s offense has been below average when it comes down to third-down conversions.
I’m not banking on a sudden improvement, and I’m leaning towards San Diego State +10.5.
My model has this one at 46 points total, so play the OVER 43.5. The total has gone OVER in 4/5 of SDSU’s L5 versus MWC foes.
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San Diego State Aztecs vs. Air Force Falcons NCAA Betting Tweet Of The Day
https://twitter.com/AF_Football/status/1707161555698331992
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