Free Week 5 Prediction: Rebels vs Crimson Tide Odds
Looking for Ole Miss Rebels vs. Alabama Crimson Tide free picks? Week 5 betting sees the Rebels taking on the Crimson Tide Saturday September 28th at Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa, Alabama. Cappers Picks provides complimentary handicapping picks all NCAA football season long so stay tuned for more FREE college football predictions like this Ole Miss Alabama Week 5 free pick.
College Football Handicapping: Week 5
(2-2) Ole Miss Rebels vs. Alabama Crimson Tide (4-0)
Date: Saturday, September 28th 2019
Time: 3:30 pm EST
Venue: Bryant-Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa, Alabama
NCAA Football Spread: Alabama -35.5
NCAA Betting Total: 61
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The officials did the Rebels no favors in their most recent contest against Cal where it looked like they had scored in the last few moments of the game, but the referees decided not to review the play.
That ended up being a pretty disappointing loss at home, but there were certain positive things the Ole Miss Rebels did in that last game that they will look to build on going into this big matchup in Tuscaloosa.
The Alabama Crimson Tide have been perfect this year, but have not really been tested much by their schedule as illustrated by their 50 average points per game they are laying on their opponents so far this year. The Crimson Tide defense flexed its muscle in their last game against Southern Mississippi holding the Golden Eagles to only 226 total yards in a blowout 49-7 win.
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The competition gets a bit tougher here and the Crimson Tide will look to build off the momentum gained in that last game in their hunt for an 18th national title.
Ole Miss Rebels
This Rebels team has been up and down this year and they currently sit at 2-2 and can count themselves pretty unlucky about their last game against Cal.
They nearly out gained their opponents that day by 100 yards and really had their rushing game going as they rushed for 177 yards that day as opposed to Cal’s 60.
That usually is a recipe for success, but they ended up falling to a career day by Cal’s Chase Garbers who threw for over 350 yards and 4 touchdowns with only one pick.
Senior running back Scottie Phillips gets the majority of the rushing touches for this team, but he is unlikely to be very involved as the Ole Miss Rebels will be trailing in this game and will need to throw the ball for the majority of the game.
That turns us to the Rebels passing attack led by freshman QB Matt Corral who will have by far the biggest test of his football career this Saturday.
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After having a horrible performance in week 1 only throwing for 93 yards, he has bounced back in a big way in the past 3 weeks throwing no interceptions and 4 TD’s and at least 239 yards in each of those last 3 contests.
He has, however, never faced a defense like this in his life so it remains to be seen how he will respond to such a challenge. On to the next important question for this Rebels side this Saturday, do they have any chance of slowing down this high powered Crimson Tide offense?
The answer to that question is probably a little bit. This defense has not given up more than 30 points in a single game this year and have been stout against the run only giving up 60 yards in that last game against Cal.
Further to that point, they have only allowed a maximum of 80 total rushing yards in a game (Week 1 against Memphis), so the Crimson Tide may not have it all their own way rushing the ball in this one.
The secondary on the other hand has been pretty hopeless to stop anyone this year and will likely pose a simple puzzle to solve for this Alabama passing attack. That point is best made by their performance against SE Louisiana where they gave up over 300 yards against a team the should have dominated.
It is hard to imagine this unit having a good afternoon on Saturday and presents the biggest problem for the Rebels in this matchup.
Alabama Crimson Tide
The Crimson Tide have remained perfect this year although not really being tested by any team they have faced thus far. We will find out more about this team later on this year as they have games scheduled against A&M, LSU and Auburn.
The Tide have had a tendency to really run up the points against their opponents this year and will be looking for much of the same in front of the home crowd this weekend.
The Tide’s offense is led by Heisman candidate and likely future NFL draftee Tua Tagovailoa who has been lights out so far this season. He has 1300 yards and 17 touchdowns and a 96.3 QBR which is good for 2nd in the nation.
I don’t expect much to change this weekend as he gets a mint matchup against this soft Rebels secondary.
Can you see #OleMiss covering -35.5 vs. #Alabama on Saturday?
— "Razor" Ray Monohan (@Cappers_Picks) September 26, 2019
Look for Jerry Jeudy to have a monster game at the wide receiver position as this Rebels secondary will have absolutely no answer for him.
This Alabama defense has dominated relatively smaller schools so far so there is not much we know about just how good they are and those questions won’t be answered this Saturday as they face a freshman QB in their own backyard.
NCAA Football Handicapping Trends
- Rebels are 9-25-1 ATS in their last 35 games overall.
- Rebels are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games.
- Crimson Tide are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
Free Week 5 NCAA Football Pick
I really wanted to make a case for the Rebels here as this number is massive, but their secondary is so bad they might be down 21-0 in the first quarter. I think Alabama will focus on the passing game as they will also have seen the stats about the Rebels rush defense and that will play into our spread here as the Tide will score points without taking a ton of time of the clock.
4* Free NCAA Betting Pick: Crimson Tide -35.5
Bet the Crimson Tide this Saturday and get the weekend kicked off right with this blowout win for the home side.
Week 5 Free Score Prediction: Ole Miss 17 – Alabama 56
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