Free NCAA Pick: North Texas vs. South Alabama Odds
Looking for North Texas Mean Green vs. South Alabama Jaguars free NCAA Week 1 picks & NCAA odds? NCAA betting sees the Mean Green taking on the Jaguars on Saturday, August 31st at the Hancock Whitney Stadium. Cappers Picks provides complimentary NCAA handicapping picks all season long including all NCAA Week 1 games so stay tuned for more FREE NCAA predictions like this North Texas South Alabama matchup.
2024 NCAAF Handicapping Analysis: Week 1
(0-0) North Texas Mean Green vs. South Alabama Jaguars (0-0)
Date: Saturday, August 31st
Time: 5:00 ET
Venue: Hancock Whitney Stadium, Mobile, AL
Week 1 ATS Betting Lines: (BET NOW!) North Texas +5.5 | South Alabama -5.5
Week 1 CFB Moneyline Odds: North Texas +169 | South Alabama -208
College Football Betting Total: O/U 64.5
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Mean Green vs. Jaguars Gameday
Get ready for a high-octane clash as the North Texas Mean Green take on the South Alabama Jaguars in a Week 1 showdown that promises to set the tone for the 2024 college football season. This matchup at Hancock Whitney Stadium is more than just a game—it’s a statement. The Jaguars, favored by 5.5 points, are looking to prove they’re the real deal, while North Texas, a plucky underdog at +169 on the moneyline, is out to spoil the party.
North Texas Mean Green
North Texas is coming off a season in which they went 3-3 at home and 2-4 on the road, finishing with a 5-7 overall record. Last season, they were favored in five of their 12 games, going 1-4 in those matchups, but performed better as underdogs, finishing 4-3. Heading into this season, North Texas is ranked 106th in our pre-season power rankings, with a 51.4% chance of being bowl-eligible.
The Mean Green have a 2.1% chance of winning the American Athletic Conference this season, with the futures market placing them at +2440 to win the conference and +700 to make it to the Conference Championship game, which is 12% implied odds.
North Texas Mean Green Stats
North Texas ranked 22nd in the country in passing yards per game last season, averaging 304.4 yards through the air. Their passing game was efficient, with a yards per attempt average of 7.9, which was 18th best in college football. The Mean Green also put up 34.5 points per game, thanks to quarterback Chandler Morris, who threw for 1,532 yards and 12 touchdowns after transferring from TCU. Morris completed 65.5% of his passes and finished with a passer rating of 97.6.
In the running game, North Texas averaged 191.5 yards per game, placing them 41st in the nation. Ikaika Ragsdale is the top returning running back, while Zach Evans, who rushed for 230 yards last season, also returns to the backfield. The Mean Green will look to Damon Ward, who had 487 receiving yards and five touchdowns last season, as their top returning wide receiver.
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North Texas had a tough time stopping the run last season, giving up 255.7 rushing yards per game, which was 185th in the nation. Overall, the Mean Green defense allowed 37.1 points per game, putting them 94th in the country. While their pass defense was slightly better, ranking 89th, opponents found a lot of success on the ground against them.
South Alabama Jaguars
South Alabama is coming off a season in which they finished 7-6 overall, including going 4-2 at home and 3-4 on the road. Last season, they were favored in 10 out of their 13 games, going 6-4 as the favorite and 1-2 as the underdog. This season, they are ranked 84th in our pre-season power rankings and have a 66.7% chance of being bowl-eligible.
Looking at the futures odds for South Alabama in the Sun Belt, they are currently listed at +1020 to win the conference, giving them an implied 9% chance, which is the 5th best out of the 7 teams in the conference. Our power rankings give them a 5.8% chance of winning the Sun Belt.
South Alabama Jaguars Stats
South Alabama’s passing game was a key part of their offense last season, averaging 268.2 yards per game through the air. The Jaguars also ranked 25th in the country in scoring, putting up 33.1 points per game. Quarterback Gio Lopez, who threw for 475 yards and four touchdowns last season, is the top returning quarterback for the Jaguars. South Alabama also added Jacob Jones from Grambling to their quarterback room.
In the running game, the Jaguars averaged 172.7 yards per game, ranking 46th nationally. Kentrel Bullock, who rushed for 448 yards last season, returns as the top running back for South Alabama. In the receiving corps, the Jaguars return Jamaal Pritchett, who had 883 receiving yards and eight touchdowns last season, and added Micah Woods from Buffalo.
South Alabama’s defense was effective at limiting the run last season, holding opponents to just 114.7 rushing yards per game, which ranked 31st in the nation. Overall, they allowed 21 points per game, placing them 24th in the country. In the passing game, the Jaguars gave up 199.2 yards per game, which was 48th nationally. However, they did allow 7.9 yards per pass attempt, placing them 112th in college football.
That’s A Wrap
With an over/under set at 64.5, expect fireworks on both sides of the ball. The Mean Green might just cover the spread with their explosive offense, but South Alabama’s home-field advantage and stout defense make them the safer bet.
North Texas Mean Green vs. South Alabama Jaguars NCAA Football Betting Trends
- The North Texas Mean Green are 3-1-1 in their last five games as an underdog.
- Conversely, the South Alabama Jaguars are 2-3 ATS in their last five games as a favorite.
- Also, the North Texas Mean Green are 6-4 ATS in their last ten road games.
- On the other side, the South Alabama Jaguars have gone 5-5 across their last ten home games.
- Over the North Texas Mean Green’s last 3 road games, the over/under record is 0-3.
- The South Alabama Jaguars’ have an over/under record of 2-1 in their last 3 games at home.
4* Free 2024 Week 1 NCAA Betting Prediction: South Alabama -5.5
South Alabama is the -5.5 point spread favorite in this week one matchup against North Texas. We’re projecting a final score of 33-27 in favor of South Alabama, so we recommend taking the Jaguars to cover the spread.
With the over/under line set at 64.5 points, our projection of 60 total points suggests that taking the under is the best play.
This game is a bettor’s dream, so don’t miss your chance to cash in on what’s sure to be a thrilling start to the season!
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North Texas Mean Green vs. South Alabama Jaguars NCAA Betting Tweet Of The Day
GAME WEEK IN #OURCITY‼️
📰 https://t.co/ArmjaaoNb1
🗒️ https://t.co/OGMeuANDKe
🎟️ https://t.co/qgPYUlHqHH pic.twitter.com/oW7c65U0nL— South Alabama Football 🏈 (@SouthAlabamaFB) August 26, 2024
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