North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Duke Blue Devils 9/28/2024 Free Pick & CFB Betting Prediction

Free NCAA Pick: North Carolina vs. Duke Odds

Looking for North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Duke Blue Devils free NCAA Week 5 picks & NCAA odds? NCAA betting sees the Tar Heels taking on the Blue Devils on Saturday, September 28th at the Wallace Wade Stadium. Cappers Picks provides complimentary NCAA handicapping picks all season long including all NCAA Week 5 games so stay tuned for more FREE NCAA predictions like this North Carolina Duke matchup.

2024 NCAAF Handicapping Analysis: Week 5

(3-1) North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Duke Blue Devils (4-0)
Date: Saturday, September 28th
Time: 4:00 ET
Venue: Wallace Wade Stadium, Durham, NC
Week 5 ATS Betting Lines: (BET NOW!) North Carolina +2.5 | Duke -2.5
Week 5 CFB Moneyline Odds: North Carolina +115 | Duke -138
College Football Betting Total: O/U 55.5

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Wallace Wade Stadium in Durham will be the site for this week five matchup between the North Carolina Tar Heels and Duke Blue Devils. Kick-off is set for 4:00 ET, and ESPN2 will handle the broadcast.

The Tar Heels come in with a 3-1 record, while Duke is undefeated at 4-0. The current point spread is tight, with Duke as the slight -2.5 point favorite at home.

The over/under line is at 55.5 points at this time.

In this classic rivalry matchup between the North Carolina Tar Heels and the Duke Blue Devils, there’s plenty of history and recent trends to consider. Duke has been solid at home, winning 6 of their last 10 games at Wallace Wade Stadium.

Meanwhile, North Carolina has struggled on the road, covering the spread just 3 times in their last 10 away games.

North Carolina Tar Heels

North Carolina is looking to bounce back after a 70-50 loss to James Madison. The Tar Heels, who were -11 point favorites, not only lost but also failed to cover the spread. The game’s total of 120 points went over the 48.5-point line. This was North Carolina’s first loss of the season, dropping their record to 3-1.

The Tar Heels fell behind early, with James Madison leading 25-14 after the first quarter. North Carolina’s deficit grew to 53-21 by halftime, and they were unable to mount a full comeback, despite outscoring James Madison 17-7 in the third quarter and 12-10 in the fourth.

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North Carolina Tar Heels Stats

North Carolina’s offense, led by quarterback Jacolby Criswell, put up 616 yards of total offense in their 70-50 loss to James Madison. Criswell threw for 475 yards and three touchdowns, completing 58.3% of his passes. He also threw two interceptions and ended the game with a passer rating of 95.4.

The Tar Heels’ offense moved the chains 30 times but struggled to establish the run, finishing with 141 yards on 31 carries. Omarion Hampton was the leading rusher, gaining 139 yards on 19 carries and scoring three rushing touchdowns. Kobe Paysour led the receiving corps with four catches for 93 yards.

North Carolina’s defense will be looking for a major bounce-back performance after giving up 70 points to James Madison. The Tar Heels were torched for 612 yards, with 224 of those coming on the ground. Through the air, they allowed 388 yards and five touchdowns, while the Dukes completed 22 of 34 passes against them.

Duke Blue Devils

After a 45-17 road win over Middle Tennessee, Duke is now 4-0 for the season. The Blue Devils, who were -14.5 point favorites, covered the spread and won outright. The game’s total score of 62 points surpassed the over/under line of 51.5 points.

Duke took control early, leading 28-10 at the end of the first quarter. The Blue Devils extended their lead to 35-10 by halftime and held on for the win.

Duke Blue Devils Stats

In their 45-17 win over Middle Tennessee, Duke’s offense put up 346 total yards, with 216 yards coming through the air. Maalik Murphy completed 66.7% of his passes for 216 yards and three touchdowns, ending the game with a passer rating of 120.24. His top target, Nicky Dalmolin, caught four passes for 100 yards.

Duke’s ground game was effective, with Star Thomas rushing for 111 yards on 17 carries, averaging 6.5 yards per attempt. The Blue Devils’ offense found the end zone three times on the ground and three times through the air.

Duke’s defense will be looking to tighten up after allowing 295 yards and 17 points to Middle Tennessee in their most recent game. The Blue Devils gave up 168 rushing yards but managed to hold Middle Tennessee to just 127 passing yards on 21 completions. Duke’s defense also came up with one interception in the game.

North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Duke Blue Devils NCAA Football Betting Trends

• The North Carolina Tar Heels are 2-3 in their last five games as an underdog.
• Conversely, the Duke Blue Devils are 2-3 ATS in their last five games as a favorite.
• Also, the North Carolina Tar Heels are 3-6-1 ATS in their last ten road games.
• On the other side, the Duke Blue Devils have gone 6-4 across their last ten home games.
• Over the North Carolina Tar Heels’ last 3 road games, the over/under record is 1-2.
• The Duke Blue Devils’ have an over/under record of 3-0 in their last 3 games at home.

4* Free 2024 Week 5 NCAA Betting Prediction: Duke -2.5

Historically, the Tar Heels hold the upper hand with an all-time record of 64-40-4, although Duke lists it as 63-41-4. At stake once again is the coveted Victory Bell, awarded to the winner of this intense annual battle.

Our projections have Duke winning this matchup 28-24, and with Duke being the -2.5 point favorites, we see them covering the spread. For the over/under, with the line at 55.5 points, our model suggests taking the under, as we see these teams combining for 52 points.

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About Jason Green

Jason Green is back with Cappers Picks again to give out his free sports plays. As always he's hoping the Braves and Commanders can win more championships. He’s starting to know the pain of Cubs fans.

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