Free NCAA Pick: New Mexico State vs. Liberty Odds
Looking for New Mexico State Aggies vs. Liberty Flames free NCAA Week 14 picks & NCAA odds? NCAA betting sees the Aggies taking on the Flames on Friday, December 1st at the Williams Stadium (VA). Cappers Picks provides complimentary NCAA handicapping picks all season long including all NCAA Week 14 games so stay tuned for more FREE NCAA predictions like this New Mexico State Liberty matchup.
2023 NCAAF Handicapping Analysis: Week 14
(10-3) New Mexico State Aggies vs. Liberty Flames (12-0)
2023 CUSA Conference Championship Game
Date: Friday, December 1st
Time: 7:00 ET
Venue: Williams Stadium (VA), Lynchburg, VA
NCAA Week 14 ATS Betting Lines: (BET NOW!) New Mexico State +10.5 | Liberty -10.5
Week 14 CFB Moneyline Odds: New Mexico State +325 | Liberty -437
College Football Betting Total: O/U 53.5
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New Mexico State will look to carry over the momentum from last year’s 49-14 win over Liberty. In the game, New Mexico State threw for 214 yards while averaging 13.4 yards per completion.
Liberty ran for 108 compared to 214 for New Mexico State.
Liberty holds a 3-2 all-time record against the Aggies, with a 2-1 advantage in Lynchburg, VA. But last season, on November 26, 2022, New Mexico State secured an impressive 49-14 victory at Liberty.
The clock is ticking down; prepare for an great matchup this week!
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New Mexico State Aggies
In their previous game vs. Jacksonville State, the Aggies came away with a 20-17 win.
Heading into the 4th quarter, the teams were tied at 17-17.
Heading into this week’s matchup with Liberty, the Aggies have been favored in four games and the underdog in six. Their ATS mark coming into the game is 8-2.
New Mexico State has an over/under record of 3-7 so far this season. On average their games have combined for 47.9 points with the average over/under line being 51.5 points.
New Mexico State Aggies Stats
On the offensive side, New Mexico State has averaged 28.2 points per game this season. This figure has them 42nd in the NCAA. Their passing game, averaging 217.4 passing yards, is ranked 56th nationally.
In terms of rushing, they’re 6th in rushing yards with an average of 457 rushing attempts per contest this season.
Defensively, the Aggies enter the game with 31 sacks and ranked 1st in QB hurries.
They’ve allowed 19.7 points per game thus far this season (76th). In terms of pass defense, they’re 110th in the NCAA, giving up 235.8 passing yards per game. Against the run, New Mexico State has allowed 126.8 rushing yards per contest thus far.
The Aggies’ finished with 34 pass attempts vs. Jacksonville State, accumulating 269 yards and one score. In the rushing game, they averaged 3.9 yards per carry and notched one rushing touchdown.
Liberty Flames
Heading into their matchup with New Mexico State, the Flames are looking to build on their most recent 42-28 win over UTEP.
This season, Liberty has a scoring margin of +18.4. Their ATS record stands at 7-3 and they have been favored in all of their games.
Liberty has an over/under record of 7-3 so far this season. On average their games have combined for 61.8 points with the average over/under line being 57 points.
Liberty Flames Stats
The Flames come into their matchup vs. New Mexico State 2nd in college football at 584 rushing attempts per game. This has translated to an average of 296.7 rushing yards per game, placing them 1st nationally.
Additionally, they’ve been airing it out 21.2 times each game, accumulating an average of 203.1 passing yards. In terms of scoring, they stand 5th, with 40.1 points per game.
The Flames’ ended with 13 pass attempts vs UTEP, racking up 28 yards and one score. In the rushing department, they averaged 7.2 yards per carry, resulting in five rushing touchdowns.
The Flames defense faces off against New Mexico State with 25 sacks and are 1st in QB hurries. When it comes to points allowed, they’re giving up 21.7 points per game which is 78th in the nation.
Against the pass, they’re 112th in the NCAA, allowing 237 passing yards per game. Liberty’s run defense is yielding 107.7 rushing yards per contest.
New Mexico State Aggies vs. Liberty Flames NCAA Football Betting Trends
- The Aggies are 5-0 in their last five games as an underdog.
- Conversely, the Flames are 3-2 ATS in their last five games as a favorite.
- Also, the Aggies are 8-2 ATS in their last ten road games.
- On the other side, the Flames have gone 7-3 across their last ten home games.
- Over the Aggies’ last 3 road games, the over/under record is 1-2.
- The Flames’ have an over/under record of 2-1 in their last 3 games at home.
New Mexico State vs. Liberty Line Movement
Open-ML | Live-ML | Open-Spread | Live-Spread | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Aggies | +290 | +316 | +10 | +10.5 |
Flames | -375 | -424 | -10 | -10.5 |
4* Free Week 14 NCAA Betting Prediction: New Mexico State +10.5
Get ready for the CUSA Championship Game on December 1, 2023, at 7:00 PM ET, live on CBS Sports Network. It’s a showdown between #22 Liberty, boasting a perfect 12-0 record, and New Mexico State, who are sitting at 10-3. Liberty has been impressive, covering the spread 8 out of 11 times, while the Aggies match that record with 8-3 ATS.
In their last games, Liberty secured a convincing 42-28 victory against UTEP, while the Aggies pulled off a tight 20-17 win against Jacksonville State.
As for the odds, the Aggies enter the championship as hefty underdogs, with a 10.5-point spread favoring Liberty. The total points in this game are predicted to be around 54 points.
While I have Liberty to come out on top, I’d recommend going with the moneyline.
This game could turn out to be closer than anticipated, but I do see Liberty securing the win against New Mexico State.
My point spread pick is to take New Mexico State to cover the spread at +10.5.
Liberty games have an average margin of -4.8 vs. their over/under lines this season. With the over/under line at 53.5, our prediction is that this game will go over, concluding with a combined total of 57 points.
New Mexico State is on an incredible hot streak, going 10-0 ATS (against the spread) in their last 10 games and boasting an 8-0 SU (straight-up) record in their last 8 games. Their road performance has been equally impressive, with a 6-0 ATS record in their last 6 away games. Even in December, they maintain a strong 4-1 ATS record.
On the other side, Liberty’s games tend to see higher scores, with the total points going OVER in 5 of their last 6 games and 4 of their last 5 games when they are favored.
These trends suggest that New Mexico State has been consistent, especially on the road, while Liberty tends to play high-scoring games.
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New Mexico State Aggies vs. Liberty Flames NCAA Betting Tweet Of The Day
Championship Saturday!
a dozen dubs pic.twitter.com/Ms2dfv0s6V
— Liberty Football (@LibertyFootball) November 26, 2023
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