Free NCAA Pick: New Mexico vs. Arizona Odds
Looking for New Mexico Lobos vs. Arizona Wildcats free NCAA Week 1 picks & NCAA odds? NCAA betting sees the Lobos taking on the Wildcats on Saturday, August 31st at the Arizona Stadium. Cappers Picks provides complimentary NCAA handicapping picks all season long including all NCAA Week 1 games so stay tuned for more FREE NCAA predictions like this New Mexico Arizona matchup.
2024 NCAAF Handicapping Analysis: Week 1
(0-1) New Mexico Lobos vs. Arizona Wildcats (0-0)
Date: Saturday, August 31st
Time: 10:30 ET
Venue: Arizona Stadium, Tucson, AZ
Week 1 ATS Betting Lines: (BET NOW!) New Mexico +30.5 | Arizona -30.5
Week 1 CFB Moneyline Odds: New Mexico +2071 | Arizona -8245
College Football Betting Total: O/U 58.5
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New Mexico Lobos
New Mexico is looking to bounce back after a 35-31 loss to Montana State in their season opener. The Lobos held a 10-0 lead early, but Montana State fought back, and the game was tied at 14-14 by halftime. The Lobos then took a 21-14 lead in the third quarter, but Montana State outscored them 21-0 in the fourth quarter to pull off the comeback.
There were no betting lines available for this game, but the total score of 66 points would have been enough to hit the over.
New Mexico Lobos Stats
New Mexico’s offense, led by quarterback Devon Dampier, put up 324 yards in their 35-31 loss to Montana State. Dampier completed 69.2% of his passes for 172 yards and one touchdown, earning a passer rating of 100.16. Luke Wysong was his top target, hauling in six receptions for 95 yards.
The Lobos’ ground game was effective, with Eli Sanders averaging 5.1 yards per carry to lead the team with 87 rushing yards. New Mexico finished with 152 yards on the ground and one rushing touchdown.
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New Mexico’s defense will need to make significant improvements after giving up 567 total yards in their last game. Montana State ran for 362 yards and three touchdowns, while the Lobos’ secondary allowed 205 yards through the air and two passing touchdowns. Overall, New Mexico allowed 35 points and 27 first downs in the game.
Arizona Wildcats
Arizona is currently ranked 26th in our pre-season power rankings, with an 84.9% chance of being bowl-eligible this season. Last year, the Wildcats finished with a 10-3 overall record, going 5-2 on the road and 5-1 at home. They were 4-2 as the underdog and 6-1 as the favorite. This season, the Wildcats have the 7th best odds to win the Big 12, according to the futures market.
Our power rankings also give them an 8.3% chance of winning the Big 12 title, and the futures market has them at +1132 to win the Big 12. Their odds to make it to the Big 12 Championship game are +450, placing them 5th among the 16 teams in the conference.
Arizona Wildcats Stats
Arizona’s offense was effective on third down last season, converting 49.1% of their chances, which was the 5th best rate in the country. They were also 20th in scoring, putting up 34.6 points per game. The Wildcats were a pass-heavy offense, ranking 9th in the nation in passing yards per game with 308.3. Their passing attack was efficient, with a completion percentage of 71.6% (5th), and they averaged 8.6 yards per pass attempt, placing them 12th in college football.
Jacory Croskey-Merritt joins the Wildcats’ backfield after rushing for 1174 yards and 17 touchdowns at New Mexico last season. Arizona also added wide receiver Reymello Murphy, who recorded 502 receiving yards last year. The Wildcats are led by quarterback Noah Fifita, who threw for 2869 yards and 25 touchdowns last season. Fifita has the 18th best odds to win the Heisman Trophy, while Tetairoa McMillan has the 3rd best odds to win the Fred Biletnikoff Trophy after finishing last season with 1402 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns.
Arizona’s defense was better against the run last season, ranking 38th in rushing yards allowed. However, they struggled against the pass, giving up 239.7 passing yards per game. Overall, the Wildcats allowed 21.1 points per game, which ranked 25th in the nation. Opposing quarterbacks had a passer rating of 85.6 and completed 59.7% of their passes against Arizona.
New Mexico Lobos vs. Arizona Wildcats NCAA Football Betting Trends
- The New Mexico Lobos are 3-2 in their last five games as an underdog.
- Conversely, the Arizona Wildcats are 3-2 ATS in their last five games as a favorite.
- Also, the New Mexico Lobos are 3-7 ATS in their last ten road games.
- On the other side, the Arizona Wildcats have gone 7-3 across their last ten home games.
- Over the New Mexico Lobos’ last 3 road games, the over/under record is 1-2.
- The Arizona Wildcats’ have an over/under record of 3-0 in their last 3 games at home.
4* Free 2024 Week 1 NCAA Betting Prediction: Lobos +30.5
Our projections have Arizona winning their week one matchup against New Mexico by a score of 42-13. Even though Arizona is the heavy favorite at -30.5, we like New Mexico to cover the spread.
With the over/under line set at 58.5 points, we recommend taking the under, as our projections have the combined score falling short of this line, at 55 points.
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