Free Week 9 Prediction: Navy Midshipmen vs. SMU Mustangs Odds
Looking for Navy Midshipmen vs. SMU Mustangs free picks? Week 9 betting sees the Midshipmen taking on the Mustangs on Saturday, October 31st at Gerald Ford Stadium in University Park, Texas. Cappers Picks provides complimentary handicapping picks all NCAA football season long so stay tuned for more FREE college football predictions like this Midshipmen Mustangs Week 9 free pick.
College Football Handicapping: Week 9
(3-3) Navy Midshipmen vs. SMU Mustangs (5-1)
Date: Saturday, October 31st, 2020
Time: 7:30 pm EST
Venue: Gerald Ford Stadium in University Park, TX
NCAA Football Spread: SMU -12.5
NCAA Betting Total: O/U 58.5
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Southern Methodist comes into a game after a loss for the first time this season. The Mustangs had their 5-game win streak to start the season snapped in a 42-13 home loss to Cincinnati last week.
Navy also plays Saturday night following a defeat, 37-21 at home to Houston as two TD underdogs. The Midshipmen had been on a nice run, winning three of four with their only defeat coming at Air Force.
Navy had a tough time keeping up with the Houston offense last week, falling by 16 after allowing the Cougars to throw for 334 yards. That’s understandable since the Cougars have a top 15 pass offense, but SMU is 13th.
Teams have varied on how to attack Navy. Houston rushed for just 86 yards last game, but East Carolina scampered for 260+ on the ground the week prior. Temple was able to find balance against Navy, running for 166 and throwing for 241.
SMU is going to throw the ball Saturday, and likewise Navy’s game plan is no secret either – run the ball. The Midshipmen have ran 50, 57, and 60 times the last three games but Dalen Morris actually threw for 206 against Houston.
Can SMU stop that vaunted ground attack? It might not appear so as Cincinnati was able to gain 313 yards on the ground last week on just 35 carries. Tulane (195) and Memphis (205) also had success on the ground vs. SMU.
SMU’s record is impressive at 5-1, but they’ve been involved in a lot of close games. Prior to the blowout loss to Cincinnati last week, SMU record two wins by a total of six points.
The Mustangs also struggled in their season opener, winning 31-24 against Texas State as -24.5 favorites. That game was a long time ago, but can you trust SMU by -12.5 in a conference matchup?
SMU does however have the offense to run away with Saturday’s tilt if the defense can stop the run game. Shane Beuchele had a somewhat down game vs. Cincinnati (216, 1/1) but tossed for 384 and 474 the two games prior.
Beuchele had a 4-game stretch where he threw 11 TD to 0 INT, and completed 70+ percent of his passes twice over that span. Navy can be exploited on the ground (242.5 yd/game) and SMU rushes for 180+ to go with their potent passing attack.
NCAA Football Handicapping Trends
- Midshipmen are 6-1 ATS last 7 conference games
- Midshipmen are 4-1 ATS last 5 road games
- Midshipmen are 16-6-1 last 23 games overall
- Over is 4-1 in Midshipmen last 5 conference games
- Mustangs are 2-6 ATS last 8 conference games
- Under is 4-0 in Mustangs last 4 home games
- Favorite is 4-1 ATS last 5 H2H meetings
- Midshipmen are 6-1 ATS last 7 meetings
Free Week 9 NCAA Football Prediction:
Southern Methodist is going to score on Saturday night, but Navy’s offense has also found their niche a bit.
Free NCAA Betting Pick: Navy +12
Navy has won 9 of the last 10 in this meeting, and their only loss over that span came by one point two years ago.
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