Free NCAA Pick: Miami vs. Florida Odds
Looking for Miami Hurricanes vs. Florida Gators free NCAA Week 1 picks & NCAA odds? NCAA betting sees the Hurricanes taking on the Gators on Saturday, August 31st at the Ben Hill Griffin Stadium. Cappers Picks provides complimentary NCAA handicapping picks all season long including all NCAA Week 1 games so stay tuned for more FREE NCAA predictions like this Miami Florida matchup.
2024 NCAAF Handicapping Analysis: Week 1
(0-0) Miami Hurricanes vs. Florida Gators (0-0)
Date: Saturday, August 31st
Time: 3:30 ET
Venue: Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, Gainesville, FL
Week 1 ATS Betting Lines: (BET NOW!) Miami -2.5 | Florida +2.5
Week 1 CFB Moneyline Odds: Miami -145 | Florida +120
College Football Betting Total: O/U 54
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Miami Hurricanes
Miami is currently ranked 23rd in our pre-season power rankings, with an 89.4% chance of being bowl-eligible. Last season, the Hurricanes finished with a 7-6 overall record, going 5-3 at home and 2-3 on the road. They were favored in seven of their 13 games, finishing 4-3 as the favorite and 2-3 as the underdog on the road.
Heading into this season, Miami has a 10.3% chance of winning the Atlantic Coast Conference, according to our pre-season projections. The futures market gives them a +325 line to win the conference, implying a 24% chance, which is the 2nd best odds among all teams in the conference. Our projections also place the Hurricanes 18th in terms of their chances of making the College Football Playoff.
Miami Hurricanes Stats
Heading into the season, Miami has the 6th best odds to win the Heisman Trophy with Cam Ward, who transferred from Washington State after throwing for 3736 yards and 25 touchdowns last season. The Hurricanes also added Damien Martinez, who rushed for 1185 yards last season at Oregon State and comes in with the 4th best odds to win the Doak Walker Trophy for the nation’s top running back.
Last season, Miami’s offense was 32nd in the country in scoring, putting up 31.5 points per game. They were 36th in passing yards per game, averaging 258 yards through the air, and 44th in rushing yards, averaging 173.8 yards per game. The Hurricanes also ranked 21st in completion percentage at 65.1% and 9th in rushing yards per attempt. Emory Williams, who threw for 470 yards and three touchdowns last season, is the top returning quarterback.
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Miami’s defense was strong against the run last season, allowing just 106 rushing yards per game, which ranked 20th in the nation. However, they finished 34th in points allowed, giving up 22.8 per game. Their pass defense was a bit of a weakness, ranking 80th in passing yards allowed. Despite this, the Hurricanes held opposing quarterbacks to a 56.4% completion percentage (29th) and a passer rating of 78.7 (35th).
Florida Gators
Florida enters the season with the 20th-ranked power ranking after finishing last season with a 5-7 record. Despite their losing record, the Gators are just outside the top-25 in the pre-season power rankings. Last year, they were 3-5 as the underdog and 2-2 as the favorite. They also had a 4-3 record at home and went 1-4 on the road.
As we head into the season, the Gators have a 58.7% chance of being bowl-eligible, according to our pre-season projections. However, their odds to win the Southeastern Conference are slim, with just a 0.6% chance according to our power rankings. In the futures market, they are a +12100 long shot to win the Conference, and they are +3500 to make it to the Conference title game, with a 3% implied probability.
Florida Gators Stats
Montrell Johnson Jr. is the top returning running back for the Florida Gators, coming off a season in which he rushed for 817 yards and five touchdowns. Last year, the Gators’ passing game averaged 257.2 yards per game, ranking 56th in the country, while their rushing attack averaged 154.5 yards per game, placing them 75th nationally. Overall, Florida was 54th in the country in scoring, putting up 28.4 points per game. The Gators were efficient in the passing game, completing 72.2% of their passes, the 2nd best mark in the nation.
At the quarterback position, Graham Mertz returns as the top passer after throwing for 2,878 yards and 20 touchdowns last season. Florida also added Clay Millen from Colorado State. In the receiving corps, Eugene Wilson III returns after putting up 538 yards last season, and the Gators have also brought in Elijhah Badger, who had 713 receiving yards last year at Arizona State.
Florida’s defense allowed 27.6 points per game last season, ranking them 50th in the nation. They had a tough time stopping the run, giving up 157.6 rushing yards per game, which ranked 100th in college football. The Gators also struggled against the pass, allowing 226.7 passing yards per game (97th). Opposing quarterbacks had a passer rating of 98.2 and completed 59.4% of their passes against the Gators.
Miami Hurricanes vs. Florida Gators NCAA Football Betting Trends
- The Miami Hurricanes are 2-3 in their last five games as a favorite.
- Conversely, the Florida Gators are 2-3 ATS in their last five games as an underdog.
- Also, the Miami Hurricanes are 4-6 ATS in their last ten road games.
- On the other side, the Florida Gators have gone 5-5 across their last ten home games.
- Over the Miami Hurricanes’ last 3 road games, the over/under record is 1-2.
- The Florida Gators’ have an over/under record of 3-0 in their last 3 games at home.
4* Free 2024 Week 1 NCAA Betting Prediction: Florida +2.5
We’re projecting a 31-26 win for the Gators in their week one matchup against the Miami Hurricanes. Even though they are the home underdogs, we like Florida to cover the +2.5 point spread.
With the over/under line set at 54 points, our projection of 57 total points suggests that taking the over is the best play.
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Miami Hurricanes vs. Florida Gators NCAA Betting Tweet Of The Day
This is why you play at Florida. 🐊 pic.twitter.com/0BgPFlYp0b
— Florida Gators Football (@GatorsFB) August 27, 2024
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