Free NCAA Pick: Kentucky vs. Vanderbilt Odds
Looking for Kentucky Wildcats vs. Vanderbilt Commodores free NCAA Week 4 picks & NCAA odds? NCAA betting sees the Wildcats taking on the Commodores on Saturday, September 23rd at the FirstBank Stadium. Cappers Picks provides complimentary NCAA handicapping picks all season long including all NCAA Week 4 games so stay tuned for more FREE NCAA predictions like this Kentucky Vanderbilt matchup.
2023 NCAAF Handicapping Analysis: Week 4
(3-0) Kentucky Wildcats vs. Vanderbilt Commodores (2-2)
Date: Saturday, September 23rd
Time: 12:00 ET
Venue: FirstBank Stadium
NCAA Week 4 ATS Betting Lines: (BET NOW!) Kentucky -14 | Vanderbilt +14
Week 4 CFB Moneyline Odds: Kentucky -643 | Vanderbilt +440
College Football Betting Total: O/U 50.5
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In this Saturday’s noon matchup (ET), we have the undefeated (3-0) Kentucky Wildcats hitting the road to face the Vanderbilt Commodores (2-2). Kentucky aims to avenge last season’s upset loss to Vandy in SEC action in Nashville, Tenn.
The Wildcats displayed their offensive prowess last week, nearly putting up 40-point (50 was within reach) in a dominating 35-3 win over Akron. The betting odds stand at Kentucky -14 and Vanderbilt +14, with a College Football Betting Total set at O/U 50.5.
Kentucky holds a 2-1 ATS record in 2023, contrasting with Vanderbilt’s 0-4 ATS performance.
The last time Vanderbilt and Kentucky faced off came last year, ending in a 24-21 win for Vanderbilt. The Vanderbilt offense threw the ball 23 times vs. Kentucky finishing with 184 passing yards.
Overall, Kentucky finished with 322 yards of offense.
Fun fact: the first meeting between these teams took place in 1896, with Kentucky leading the all-time series 48-43-4 and boasting their largest victory at 53-2 in 1978.
Stay tuned to our College football handicapping blog for more insights on this thrilling matchup!
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Kentucky Wildcats
Kentucky most recently took down Akron by a score of 35-3. The Wildcats went into the 4th quarter of this game leading by 11.
Kentucky’s record vs. the spread this season is a perfect 2-0. So far, they have been the underdog in all three of their games and have a scoring differential of +24.
Kentucky has an over/under record of 1-1 so far this season. On average their games have combined for 47 points with the average over/under line being 48.5 points.
Kentucky Wildcats Stats
On offense, the Wildcats come in with the 33rd ranked offense in terms of passing attempts and are averaging 285 passing yards per game. In the running game, they are 67th in terms of attempts.
In terms of passing yards allowed per game, Kentucky’s defense is ranked 104th. Opponents, on average, attempt 33.3 passes against the Wildcats. They are allowing 11.3 PPG, which places them 12th in college football.
Their rush defense ranks 16th in the NCAA.
Through the air, the Wildcats’ attempted 26 passes against Akron, gaining 315 yards and securing three scores. On the ground, they maintained an average of 6.1 yards per carry, resulting in two rushing touchdowns.
Vanderbilt Commodores
After trailing by -13 at halftime, Vanderbilt could not make a comeback and lost their most recent game 40-37 to UNLV.
So far, Vanderbilt has been favored one time and the underdog in two games. This has led to an ATS record of 2-1 and an average scoring differential of +5.5.
This season, Vanderbilt has an over/under record of 3-0. Their games have, on average, produced a combined total of 64 points, with the typical over/under line being 55.8 points.
Vanderbilt Commodores Stats
This game is a chance for the Commodores to look in the mirror, and hit the reset button on their 2023 campaign.
The Commodores come into their matchup vs. Kentucky 23rd in college football at 122 rushing attempts per game. This has translated to an average of 111.5 rushing yards per game, placing them 73rd nationally.
Additionally, they’ve been airing it out 34.2 times each game, accumulating an average of 288.8 passing yards. In terms of scoring, they stand 10th, with 34.8 points per game.
Offensively, the Commodores went 7/18 on 3rd down vs. UNLV and finished with 420 yards of offense. In the passing game, they had three touchdowns and 337 yards.
The Commodores did not score on any of their 38 rushing attempts and ended with 83 rushing yards.
Vanderbilt’s defense is ranked 73rd in passing yards allowed per game as they prepare for this matchup. Opponents have attempted an average of 33 passing attempts against the Commodores.
They have given up 29.2 points per game so far, placing them 76th in college football. In the NCAA’s rush defense category, they are 92nd.
Kentucky Wildcats vs. Vanderbilt Commodores NCAA Football Betting Trends
- The Wildcats are 3-2 in their last five games as a favorite.
- Conversely, the Commodores are 2-3 ATS in their last five games as an underdog.
- Also, the Wildcats are 6-3-1 ATS in their last ten road games.
- On the other side, the Commodores have gone 6-4 across their last ten home games.
- Over the Wildcats’ last 3 road games, the over/under record is 0-3.
- The Commodores’ have an over/under record of 2-1 in their last 3 games at home.
Kentucky vs. Vanderbilt Line Movement
| Open-ML | Live-ML | Open-Spread | Live-Spread | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildcats | -590 | -643 | -13.5 | -14 |
| Commodores | +410 | +440 | +13.5 | +14 |
4* Free Week 4 NCAA Betting Prediction: Vanderbilt +14
While Kentucky appears relatively healthy for this point in the season, Vandy faces a slew of injuries to address before Saturday’s clash. So check the injury reports.
Even though they come in as the home underdogs, I still like Vanderbilt to cover. They turned the ball over 4x last week, and that WILL NOT happen this week. Ball protection will be paramount to their gameplan.
I’m counting on their strong pass rush as well on the defensive side to make things tough for Kentucky.
My point spread pick is Vanderbilt at +14.
Kentucky are 1-4 ATS in their L5 games against Vanderbilt.
Both teams can put up points, I’m expecting a higher scoring game, and would bet a small play on the OVER.
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Kentucky Wildcats vs. Vanderbilt Commodores NCAA Betting Tweet Of The Day
https://twitter.com/VandyFootball/status/1705313819944419795
Week 4⃣ Game Themes ⤵️ pic.twitter.com/QBJRERaIWs
— Vanderbilt Football (@VandyFootball) September 22, 2023
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