Free NCAA Football Prediction: Warriors vs. Aztecs Odds
Looking for Hawaii Warriors vs. San Diego State Aztecs free picks? College football betting sees the Warriors taking on the Aztecs on Saturday, October 8th at Snapdragon Stadium in San Diego, CA. Cappers Picks provides complimentary handicapping picks all NCAA football season long so stay tuned for more FREE college football game Week 7 predictions like this HAW-SDSU free pick.
College Football Handicapping Analysis: Week 6
(1-4) Hawaii Warriors vs. San Diego State Aztecs (2-3)
Date: Saturday, October 8th, 2022
Time: 10:30 pm EST
Venue: Snapdragon Stadium, San Diego, CA
NCAA Football ATS Spread Odds: HAW +23.5 | SDSU -23.5 (Bet Now!)
NCAA Football Moneyline Odds: Warriors +1100 | Aztecs -2500
NCAA Betting Total Odds: O/U 48
The Hawaii Warriors will travel and take on the San Diego Aztecs from Snapdragon Stadium this Saturday. SDSU will open as the 24-point favorites, with the total opening at 48.
HISTORY: The Hawaii and San Diego State football series dates back to their time as rivals in the WAC. SDSU holds the all-time lead 23-11, after winning eight of the last ten meetings.
Hawaii Warriors
There’s a reason why a 2-3 team is favored to win a conference matchup by so much. It’s been rough for Hawaii early, and it’s showing no sign of stopping. The Warriors have dropped all four of their games to FBS competition, with their lone win coming over FCS school Duquense.
In Week 5, Hawaii loss to New Mexico State, 45-24, dropping to 1-4 ATS.
Hawaii scores 17.4 points per game, while allowing 45.4 ppg. Timmy Chang’s first year at the helm hasn’t got well, but the record-breaking QB inherited a mess, so this project will take time.
Chang has rotated between Brayden Schager and Joey Yellen through the first five games. Schager started last weekend, and wasn’t terrible, tossing for 261 yards and a score, but the defense is shot right now and can’t stop anyone. Schager should get the call again for this tough road spot.
Hawaii has tried to establish a ground game this season, but the non-conference strength of schedule wasn’t in their favor, and this one might be either. Dedrick Parsons gets the bulk of the work for the Warriors, and he leads with 266 rushing yards and he’s scored multiple touchdowns in each of the last two games.
The wideouts came alive a bit last week with Schager in the lineup, but senior tight end Caleb Phillips had a big game, catching eight passes for a career-high 138 yards.
San Diego State Aztecs
San Diego State split their first four games, delivering mixed results. This isn’t the same 11-2 team that won the regular season Mountain West title, but they still possess the same physical grit and come into a good spot to jump back to .500. The Aztecs opened up Mountain West play on the blue turf, and their offensive struggles continued.
In Week 5, San Diego State lost to Boise State, 35-13, dropping to 1-4 against the spread this season.
Brady Hoke doesn’t ask for much from the quarterback spot, as the veteran coach has long thrived off of the grind it out approach. Braxton Burmeister is expected to start this weekend after leaving the Boise game with a head injury. Burmeister has experience on his side, but it hasn’t been pretty this season for the Virginia Tech transfer.
Burmeister has thrown for 263 passing yards with two touchdowns to three interceptions through the first five games of the season, while adding 141 yards and a score on the ground.
SDSU has rushed for 192.2 ypg through the first few weeks, and it’s been a collective effort to replace to presence and production of running back Greg Bell. Fifth-year back Jordan Byrd caught the hot hand against Toledo, gaining 115 yards and scoring twice, including the game-clinching one-yard touchdown.
Byrd now leads the Aztecs with 224 rushing yards and three touchdowns, while Jaylon Armstead has complimented with 160 yards on the ground.
Tyrell Shavers and senior wideout Jesse Matthews serve as the primary pass catchers for Burmeister. Matthews has two seasons of 45 catches or more, and Shavers has scored twice this year.
NCAA Football Handicapping Trends
- HAW are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
- SDSU are 3-3 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
- Warriors are 4-4 ATS in their last 8 home games.
- Aztecs are 3-5 ATS in their last 5 road games.
Free Week 7 NCAA Football Final Analysis:
Two simple, yet vital questions for this one.
Can San Diego State beat a school by 25 points right now or will Hawaii just get blown out again because they can’t defend?
Hawaii has been abysmal defensively, but San Diego State has been pretty subpar offensively themselves, so we have some ingredients for the under in this one. Tack on the Aztecs strengths of defending and physically controlling the clock, and it feels really good here. This isn’t the old Hawaii as well, as there are no more Chang’s, Colt Brennan’s and Cole McDonald’s, and the Warriors have taken a ground-first approach this year as well. Four of SDSU’s games have gone under this season, and we like a fifth right here.
Take the under for this late nite Mountain West Conference matchup.
4* Free Week 7 NCAA Betting Pick: Under 48
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