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Free Week 1 Prediction: Bulldogs vs. Trojans Odds
Looking for Fresno State Bulldogs vs. USC Trojans free picks? Week 1 betting sees the Bulldogs taking on the Trojans Saturday August 31 at Memorial Coliseum in Los Angeles, California. Cappers Picks provides complimentary handicapping picks all NCAA football season long so stay tuned for more FREE college football predictions like this Fresno State USC Week 1 free pick.
College Football Handicapping: Week 1
(0-0) Fresno State Bulldogs vs. USC Trojans (0-0)
Date: Saturday, August 31st 2019
Time: 10:30 pm EST
Venue: Memorial Coliseum, Los Angeles CA
NCAA Football Spread: USC -13.5
NCAA Betting Total: 52.5
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Oddsmakers had to favor USC in their series opener vs. Fresno State, but when the line came out this Summer it seemed way off the mark. The Trojans are nearly two touchdown favorites at home on Saturday despite going 5-7 in 2018 and missing a bowl game for the first time in almost 20 years.
Fresno State had a very alternate ’18 from their opponents after posting a 12-2 record that included a 31-20 win in the Las Vegas Bowl. The main reason Fresno is such a huge underdog is because they lost a lot of players in the offseason.
Fresno State Bulldogs
Fresno State returns only 8 starters from their 12-2 season in 2018 and that includes a punter and a kicker. All total, only 2 players are back for the offense while the defense must replace 7. That includes all three linebackers including MWC defensive player of the year Jeff Allison who declared for the NFL.
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Not everything is gloom and doom for the Bulldogs, especially on defense. Coordinator Bert Watts turned the team around in his first season at the helm, helping Fresno State to the #3 scoring defense in the country.
Those defensive rankings also included Fresno State being 30th vs. the rush and 23rd vs. the pass for the 17th best total yard unit in the country. Sure they lost a lot of players, but was it the system that led to the success?
There are also some things to like about the Fresno State offense heading into the series opener. One is the fact that second leading receiver, TE Jared Rice, is back in the fold. A couple highly touted injured players return as well in WR Emoryie Edwards and OL Letane Muti.
Fresno State will have some questions to answer at QB in replacing Marcus McMaryion who threw for 3600+ yards and 25 TD last year. Luckily the Bulldogs have a solid run game behind Ronnie Rivers, who had 212 yards and 3 TD in the Las Vegas Bowl last year.
Fresno State also has Jeff Tedford at the helm for what will be his 3rd season. This is when the offensive guru’s recruits start to make their mark. He also has 10 years of experience coaching at Cal so USC is a very familiar foe.
USC Trojans
The Trojans face a very tough defense right out of the gate which could be a hindrance to their very fresh offense. New OC Graham Harrell will choose to focus on letting talent win the game as his notoriously thin playbook has only 4 running plays in it…allegedly.
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USC may not need to run the pigskin if second year QB JT Daniels can finally start living up to his phenom hype. Daniels threw for 2672 yards, 14 TD, and 10 int as a true freshman last season.
Yes it’s a new offense but there’s no reason for Daniels not to thrive in ’19, especially with one of the most talented trio of WR’s in the nation to throw to. Harrell’s quick passing game will help offset the loss an OL that returns just the LT and RG starters from a year ago.
The pressure is going to be on the USC defense in this one as Tedford has had a whole offseason to draw up plays for this game. The Trojans return just 4 defensive starters from a year ago.
Despite the 5-7 record, USC’s defense did play decent holding 5 of the last 8 opponents to 24 points or less in 2018. Overall the Trojans lost 5 of their last 6 a year ago so they didn’t go into the offseason with much momentum.
NCAA Football Handicapping Trends
- Bulldogs are 14-3-1 ATS last 18 road games
- Bulldogs are 27-7-1 ATS last 35 games overall
- Trojans are 3-9 ATS last 12 home games
- Trojans are 1-7 ATS last 8 nonconference games
Free Week 1 NCAA Football Pick
USC has the talent, that’s never been their issue. Helton is essentially a lame duck coach if he doesn’t show massive improvement this year but there’s questions lately about the players buying into his system.
Fresno State is in a huge spot here as after week 1 at USC and week 2 at home vs. Minnesota the team could essentially run the table to the MWC championship game.
4* Free NCAA Betting Pick: Fresno State +13.5
Forget the cover, Fresno State wants the outright win in this one. The truth is, Tedford can draw up the game plan to do just that. In the end, USC’s overall talent edge may win out, but both teams have a lot of new faces in the lineup. At the very least, this one should be closer than expected.
Week 1 Free Score Prediction: Fresno State 41 – USC 19
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