Free NCAA Pick: Fresno State vs. Michigan Odds
Looking for Fresno State Bulldogs vs. Michigan Wolverines free NCAA Week 1 picks & NCAA odds? NCAA betting sees the Bulldogs taking on the Wolverines on Saturday, August 31st at the Michigan Stadium. Cappers Picks provides complimentary NCAA handicapping picks all season long including all NCAA Week 1 games so stay tuned for more FREE NCAA predictions like this Fresno State Michigan matchup.
2024 NCAAF Handicapping Analysis: Week 1
(0-0) Fresno State Bulldogs vs. Michigan Wolverines (0-0)
Date: Saturday, August 31st
Time: 7:30 ET
Venue: Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor, MI
Week 1 ATS Betting Lines: (BET NOW!) Fresno State +21.5 | Michigan -21.5
Week 1 CFB Moneyline Odds: Fresno State +967 | Michigan -2281
College Football Betting Total: O/U 46.5
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Fresno State Bulldogs
Last season, Fresno State was 7-3 when favored and 2-1 as the underdog, finishing with a 9-4 overall record. The Bulldogs were strong at home, going 6-1, but just 3-3 on the road. Heading into this season, they are ranked 74th in our power rankings and have an 80.8% chance of being bowl-eligible.
Expert NCAA Football Betting Picks
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Currently, the Bulldogs have a 17.4% chance of winning the Mountain West, according to our pre-season projections. In the futures market, they are at +637 to win the conference, with a 14% chance of making it to the Mountain West Championship (+160), which is the 3rd best odds in the conference.
Fresno State Bulldogs Stats
Last season, the Fresno State Bulldogs were 36th in the country in scoring, averaging 30.5 points per game. They were also 12th in third down conversion percentage, moving the chains on 47.6% of their third down opportunities. The Bulldogs were a pass-heavy offense, ranking 7th in passing attempts per game with 39.5. Their passing attack averaged 281.3 yards per game, placing them 21st nationally.
Quarterback Mikey Keene, who threw for 2976 yards and 24 touchdowns last season, is back for another year. He completed 67.3% of his passes, but also threw 10 interceptions. Malik Sherrod, who rushed for 967 yards and nine touchdowns, returns to bolster the running game, which ranked 111th in the country. Jalen Moss, who had 706 receiving yards last season, leads the receiving corps, which also includes transfer Chedon James from Idaho State.
Fresno State’s defense was solid last season, allowing 23.5 points per game, which ranked 36th in the nation. They were particularly strong against the pass, ranking 56th in passing yards allowed and holding opposing quarterbacks to a 55.2% completion percentage (23rd). However, the Bulldogs struggled to stop the run, giving up 167.5 rushing yards per game, placing them 121st in the country.
Michigan Wolverines
Michigan enters the season with the 11th best power ranking after finishing last season with a 15-0 record. The Wolverines are ranked 11th in the country in terms of their chances of making the college football playoff, with a 29.5% chance of at least making the National Championship game. The odds are also in their favor to be bowl-eligible, with a 92% chance, and they have a 7.2% chance of winning the Big Ten.
Heading into the season, the futures market has Michigan at +752 to win the Big Ten, giving them an implied 12% chance, which is the 4th best among Big Ten teams. Last season, Michigan was undefeated at home (9-0) and on the road (6-0) and is poised for another strong season.
Michigan Wolverines Stats
Donovan Edwards, who rushed for 497 yards and five touchdowns last season, returns to the Michigan Wolverines’ backfield. Last season, Michigan was 7th in the country in scoring, averaging 35.9 points per game. The Wolverines were also 2nd in completion percentage at 72.2% and 10th in passing yards per attempt (8.9). Their passing game averaged 213.7 yards per game, and their rushing attack was strong, ranking 15th in rush yards per attempt and 19th in rush yards per game (170.4).
Michigan’s offense was efficient last season, with just five interceptions thrown, the 5th best mark in the country. Jack Tuttle, who threw for 130 yards last season, is the top returning quarterback for the Wolverines. Edwards has the 6th best odds to win the Doak Walker Trophy this season. The Wolverines also added wide receiver C.J. Charleston from Youngstown State to bolster their receiving corps.
Michigan’s defense was exceptional last season, allowing just 10.4 points per game, which was the 3rd best mark in the country. They were equally impressive against the pass, giving up only 157 passing yards per game (14th), and against the run, holding opponents to just 91.3 rushing yards per contest (11th). The Wolverines also excelled in passer rating, allowing a passer rating of just 60.4, the 4th lowest in the nation.
Fresno State Bulldogs vs. Michigan Wolverines NCAA Football Betting Trends
- The Fresno State Bulldogs are 4-1 in their last five games as an underdog.
- Conversely, the Michigan Wolverines are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as a favorite.
- Also, the Fresno State Bulldogs are 5-5 ATS in their last ten road games.
- On the other side, the Michigan Wolverines have gone 8-2 across their last ten home games.
- Over the Fresno State Bulldogs’ last 3 road games, the over/under record is 3-0.
- The Michigan Wolverines’ have an over/under record of 1-2 in their last 3 games at home.
4* Free 2024 Week 1 NCAA Betting Prediction: Michigan -21.5
Michigan is the heavy favorite in their week one matchup against Fresno State, with the point spread set at -21.5 in favor of the Wolverines. However, we like Fresno State’s chances to cover the spread, as we project a final score of 31-20 in favor of Michigan.
With the over/under line at 46.5 points, our projection of 51 total points suggests taking the over as the best bet.
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Fresno State Bulldogs vs. Michigan Wolverines NCAA Betting Tweet Of The Day
Game week is here! We play football on Saturday!!#GoBlue pic.twitter.com/YZ8iLyI29n
— Michigan Football (@UMichFootball) August 26, 2024
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