Free NCAA Pick: Florida vs. Mississippi State Odds
Looking for Florida Gators vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs free NCAA Week 4 picks & NCAA odds? NCAA betting sees the Gators taking on the Bulldogs on Saturday, September 21st at the Davis Wade Stadium. Cappers Picks provides complimentary NCAA handicapping picks all season long including all NCAA Week 4 games so stay tuned for more FREE NCAA predictions like this Florida Mississippi State matchup.
2024 NCAAF Handicapping Analysis: Week 4
(1-2) Florida Gators vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs (1-2)
Date: Saturday, September 21st
Time: 12:00 ET
Venue: Davis Wade Stadium, Starkville, MS
Week 4 ATS Betting Lines: (BET NOW!) Florida -5.5 | Mississippi State +5.5
Week 4 CFB Moneyline Odds: Florida -209 | Mississippi State +173
College Football Betting Total: O/U 58
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ESPN will be covering the Florida Gators vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs matchup, set to kick off at 12:00 ET from Davis Wade Stadium in Starkville. The Gators are favored at -5.5 points on the road.
Both teams are 1-2 heading into this week four Southeastern Conference showdown.
The over/under line is currently sitting at 58 points.
Florida Gators
Florida is looking to bounce back after a 33-20 loss to Texas A&M in their most recent game. The Gators, who were +3 point underdogs, not only fell straight-up but also failed to cover the spread. This game’s over/under was set at 45.5 points, and the teams combined for 53 points, hitting the over. With this loss, Florida’s record for the season dropped to 1-2.
Florida fell behind early, with Texas A&M taking a 10-0 lead in the first quarter. The Gators were unable to score in the first half, and the Aggies added another 10 points in the second quarter. Trailing 20-0 at halftime, Florida made a push in the third quarter, outscoring Texas A&M 14-13. However, the Gators managed only a field goal in the fourth quarter while holding the Aggies scoreless.
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Florida Gators Stats
Florida’s offense finished with 301 yards in their 33-20 loss to Texas A&M, with 249 yards coming through the air. The Gators converted 19 first downs but struggled on the ground, managing just 52 rushing yards on 25 attempts. Despite throwing for 249 yards, Florida’s offense was hampered by three interceptions.
Graham Mertz, who completed 12 of 15 passes for 195 yards, led the Gators in passing. His top target, Elijhah Badger, caught five passes for 94 yards and a touchdown.
Florida’s defense will need to focus on stopping the run after giving up 310 rushing yards to Texas A&M. The Gators allowed 488 total yards and 33 points, with their secondary giving up 178 passing yards on 11 completions. On the bright side, Florida’s defense limited Texas A&M’s passing game to just 17 attempts.
Mississippi State Bulldogs
Mississippi State is looking to bounce back after a 41-17 loss to Toledo in their last game. The Bulldogs, who were -10.5 point favorites, not only lost but failed to cover the spread. This game’s combined score of 58 points surpassed the over/under line of 57.5 points.
Mississippi State’s record now stands at 1-2. The Bulldogs fell behind early, with Toledo taking a 7-0 lead in the first quarter. Mississippi State’s defense struggled, and the Rockets added 21 points in the second quarter while holding the Bulldogs to just a field goal, resulting in a 28-3 halftime score. Mississippi State added a touchdown in the third quarter and another in the fourth, but it wasn’t enough to overcome Toledo’s lead.
Mississippi State Bulldogs Stats
Quarterback Blake Shapen led Mississippi State’s offense in their 41-17 loss to Toledo, throwing for 319 yards and two touchdowns, with a 71.8% completion rate. Kevin Coleman Jr. was his top target, catching seven passes for 77 yards.
The Bulldogs’ offense totaled 385 yards, with 66 yards coming from the running game. Johnnie Daniels was the leading rusher, gaining 59 yards on 10 carries.
Mississippi State’s defense had a tough time in their last game, giving up 454 total yards and 41 points to Toledo. The Bulldogs struggled to stop the run, allowing 169 rushing yards and two touchdowns. In the passing game, they gave up 285 yards on 23 completions, with Toledo attempting 28 passes. Mississippi State’s defense will need to regroup and improve after allowing 41 points in their most recent outing.
Florida Gators vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs NCAA Football Betting Trends
- The Florida Gators are 1-4 in their last five games as a favorite.
- Conversely, the Mississippi State Bulldogs are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games as an underdog.
- Also, the Florida Gators are 5-5 ATS in their last ten road games.
- On the other side, the Mississippi State Bulldogs have gone 3-7 across their last ten home games.
- Over the Florida Gators’ last 3 road games, the over/under record is 3-0.
- The Mississippi State Bulldogs’ have an over/under record of 1-2 in their last 3 games at home.
4* Free 2024 Week 4 NCAA Betting Prediction: Bulldogs +5.5
Florida comes into this game as the -5.5 point spread favorite over Mississippi State. Our projections have the Gators winning by a score of 30-28, but we like Mississippi State to cover the spread as the underdog.
With the over/under line set at 58 points, our model is projecting a total of 58 points, pass on the total for this matchup.
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Florida Gators vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs NCAA Betting Tweet Of The Day
: https://t.co/Q8gXts7W6W
: https://t.co/ocJ6ZjzjGN#SHOWTIME | #HailState pic.twitter.com/YVpzQxZgzr— Mississippi State Football (@HailStateFB) September 19, 2024
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