Free NCAA Pick: Florida vs. Kentucky Odds
Looking for Florida Gators vs. Kentucky Wildcats free NCAA Week 5 picks & NCAA odds? NCAA betting sees the Gators taking on the Wildcats on Saturday, September 30th at the Kroger Field. Cappers Picks provides complimentary NCAA handicapping picks all season long including all NCAA Week 5 games so stay tuned for more FREE NCAA predictions like this Florida Kentucky matchup.
2023 NCAAF Handicapping Analysis: Week 5
(3-1) Florida Gators vs. Kentucky Wildcats (4-0)
Date: Saturday, September 30th
Time: 12:00 ET
Venue: Kroger Field
NCAA Week 5 ATS Betting Lines: (BET NOW!) Florida +2.5 | Kentucky -2.5
Week 5 CFB Moneyline Odds: Florida +122 | Kentucky -148
College Football Betting Total: O/U 45.5
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Florida will be looking for revenge in this week’s game, as the most recent matchup between the teams ended in a 26-16 win for Kentucky. On the defensive end, Kentucky put the clamps down on Florida as they threw for 143 yards. Offensively, Kentucky finished with 272 yards of total offense with 202 in the passing game and 70 on the ground.
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Florida Gators
Fueling Florida’s most recent 22-7 win over Charlotte was a strong first quarter. In the game, they were up 10-0 after the opening quarter.
When looking at Florida’s performance vs. the spread, they have covered in every game so far. Through four games, they have been the underdog one time and the favorite two times.
Florida has an over/under record of 0-3 so far this season. On average their games have combined for 41.2 points with the average over/under line being 49.8 points.
Florida Gators Stats
Heading into their matchup vs. Kentucky, the Gators’ offense is averaging 164.8 rushing yards per game, along with 4 yards per attempt. They currently hold the 58th rank in rushing yards and 58th rank in passing yards, amassing an average of 247.8 yards per game.
In terms of scoring, Florida is at 27.8 points per game, which is 53rd in the NCAA.
Florida’s defense is ranked 172nd in passing yards allowed per game as they prepare for this matchup. Opponents have attempted an average of 24 passing attempts against the Gators. They have given up 13.5 points per game so far, placing them 28th in college football.
In the NCAA’s rush defense category, they are 19th.
Offensively, the Gators went 1/9 on 3rd down vs. Charlotte and finished with 395 yards of offense. In the passing game, they had one touchdown and 259 yards. The Gators did not score on any of their 36 rushing attempts and ended with 136 rushing yards.
Kentucky Wildcats
Kentucky most recently played against Vanderbilt and won by a score of 45-28.
So far, the Wildcats are a perfect 3-0 vs. the spread with an average scoring differential of +22.5. When looking at their previous betting lines, they have been the underdog in all of their games.
In four games played, the average over/under line for Kentucky’s games has been set at 49.2 points.
These contests have seen an average combined score of 53.5 points, resulting in an OU record of 2-1.
Kentucky Wildcats Stats
On offense, Kentucky comes into the game averaging 38, which is 22nd in the NCAA. On average, they are averaging 265 passing yards (45th) compared to 86th in rushing yards. For the season, they are averaging 96 rushing attempts per contest.
Through the air, the Wildcats’ attempted 29 passes against Vanderbilt, gaining 205 yards and securing one score.
On the ground, they maintained an average of 5.2 yards per carry, resulting in three rushing touchdowns.
The Wildcats’ defense has given up 77.5 rushing yards per game this season, which is 183rd. Opponents are recording an average of 215.8 passing yards, and opposing quarterbacks come in with a passer rating of 75.1 when playing against Kentucky.
In terms of points allowed, they currently sit 74th in NCAA rankings.
Florida Gators vs. Kentucky Wildcats NCAA Football Betting Trends
- The Gators are 3-2 in their last five games as an underdog.
- Conversely, the Wildcats are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as a favorite.
- Also, the Gators are 4-6 ATS in their last ten road games.
- On the other side, the Wildcats have gone 7-3 across their last ten home games.
- Over the Gators’ last 3 road games, the over/under record is 1-2.
- The Wildcats’ have an over/under record of 1-2 in their last 3 games at home.
Florida vs. Kentucky Line Movement
| Open-ML | Live-ML | Open-Spread | Live-Spread | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gators | +108 | +122 | +2.5 | +2.5 |
| Wildcats | -137 | -148 | -2.5 | -2.5 |
4* Free Week 5 NCAA Betting Prediction: Kentucky -2.5
This is not the same Florida we’re used to seeing week in and week out, I can UK winning this one straight up. The Kentucky offense has been good on third down this season, and should continue to move the chains against Florida.
My pick is to bet on Kentucky at -2.5. They’ve got what it takes to keep this within a FG into the 4th and grab a W at the end.
Florida are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games, and 1-8 in their last 9 games on the road.
LEAN the UNDER on Saturday too. The defenses will likely come to play.
My model has this one at 38 points total, so play the UNDER 45.5. The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Kentucky’s last 13 games, and UNDER in 4 of Florida’s last 5 games.
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Florida Gators vs. Kentucky Wildcats NCAA Betting Tweet Of The Day
Great fan base!
https://twitter.com/UKFootball/status/1707183338208010284
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