Free NCAAF Pick: Bears vs. Sun Devils Odds
Looking for Baylor Bears vs. Arizona State Sun Devils Free NCAA Week 5 picks & NCAA odds? NCAAF betting sees the Bears taking on the Sun Devils on 10/3 at Mountain America Stadium, in Tempe, AZ. This free NCAA football pick is based on matchup analysis and documented handicapping data tracked by CappersPicks since 2004, with a focus on identifying the strongest betting angle for this Bears Sun Devils matchup.
2026 NCAAF Handicapping – Baylor Bears vs Arizona State Sun Devils
(3-1) Baylor Bears vs. Arizona State Sun Devils (2-1)
Date: Oct 03, 2026
Time: 10:30 PM ET
Venue: Mountain America Stadium in Tempe, AZ
NCAAF Moneyline Odds: Bears +156 | Sun Devils -191 (Bet Now!)
Today’s NCAAF Spread Betting Odds: Bears +4.5 | Sun Devils -4.5
NCAAF Football Gambling Total: O/U: 48
Here’s why I’m backing a Baylor ATS bet below in my Bears Sun Devils free pick & gambling prediction for this matchup.
Bears vs. Sun Devils Gameday
The Baylor Bears head to Tempe Saturday night for a Big 12 matchup with the Arizona State Sun Devils at Mountain America Stadium. Baylor enters 3-1 and 1-0 in conference play, while Arizona State is 2-1 and also 1-0 in the Big 12.
Kickoff is set for 7:30 PM local time and 10:30 PM ET on ESPN.
Baylor has won three straight since dropping its neutral-site opener to Auburn in Atlanta. The Bears closed a three-game homestand last week with a 23-13 victory over Colorado and now face their first true road game of the season.
Baylor finally leaves Waco, while Arizona State returns from London because apparently normal travel was too boring.
Arizona State has had an extra week to prepare after beating Kansas 24-17 in the Union Jack Classic at Wembley Stadium.
The Sun Devils are 2-0 all-time against Baylor. Arizona State won 27-24 in Waco last season on a 43-yard FG as time expired, while the only previous meeting was a 34-13 ASU victory in Tempe in 1990.
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Baylor Bears vs. Arizona State Sun Devils Odds & Last 5
The opening odds make Arizona State the home favorite. The Sun Devils opened -183 on the moneyline, with Baylor returning +151.
Arizona State is laying 4.5 points, with the opening total set at 49.
Baylor’s winning streak started with a 44-3 rout of Prairie View A&M before the Bears beat Louisiana Tech 36-19.
The defense took center stage against Colorado.
Baylor allowed 363 total yards but held the Buffaloes to 13 points, producing five sacks and getting three FG’s from Rhett Armstrong in the 23-13 victory.
Arizona State opened by hammering Morgan State 70-7 before running into a much different afternoon at Texas A&M, where the Sun Devils lost 48-20.
ASU responded against Kansas by building a 24-7 advantage before holding off the Jayhawks’ fourth-quarter rally.
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Sun Devils Stats
Arizona State is averaging 38 points and 426 yards through three games, although the 70-point opener against Morgan State did plenty of heavy lifting on those averages.
The Sun Devils have been balanced with 260 passing yards and 166 rushing yards per game.
Kyson Brown leads the backfield with 227 rushing yards and a TD. Reed Harris has emerged as the bigger downfield threat, producing 374 receiving yards and five TD’s while averaging nearly 20 yards per catch.
Arizona State’s defense has been particularly effective getting off the field.
Opponents have converted only 12 of 40 third downs and one of six fourth-down attempts. The Sun Devils have also allowed only four offensive TD’s through the first three quarters of games this season.
That unit has been much better than the 48 points surrendered at Texas A&M might suggest.
ASU has held opponents to 286 yards per game overall, including only 161 through the air. If Baylor wants another grinding fourth quarter, the Sun Devils appear perfectly willing to participate.
Bears Stats
Baylor has built its three-game winning streak largely around a defense that has yet to allow an opponent to reach 20 points this season.
The Bears have surrendered 52 points through four games.
That group has generated 15 sacks and four interceptions, and it delivered one of its better performances against Colorado. Bo Onu had two sacks while Travion Barnes recorded a team-high nine tackles.
The offense has been more uneven.
Dawson Pendergrass leads Baylor with 288 rushing yards, while Gavin Freeman has 364 receiving yards and two TD’s. Freeman has become an important underneath option capable of creating extra yardage after the catch.
Baylor has also received useful production from its kicking game.
Rhett Armstrong has made eight of his last nine FG attempts after missing one in the opener, including a career-long 54-yarder against Colorado.
Bears vs. Sun Devils QB Matchup
Cutter Boley runs the Arizona State offense after transferring from Kentucky.
The sophomore has completed 53 of 84 passes for 736 yards, nine TD’s and two interceptions. Six of those TD’s came against Morgan State, but Boley has thrown at least one scoring pass in every game.
His numbers against FBS competition have been considerably more modest.
Boley has thrown for 349 yards with three TD’s and two interceptions across the Texas A&M and Kansas games, so Baylor presents another substantial test.
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DJ Lagway is back in charge of Baylor’s offense.
Lagway started the opener against Auburn before a sprained ankle sidelined him for two games, allowing Nate Bennett to start against Prairie View A&M and Louisiana Tech. Lagway returned against Colorado and completed 19 of 39 passes for 221 yards, two TD’s and an interception.
The fourth quarter was considerably better than the first three.
Lagway answered Colorado’s tying TD with a five-play, 65-yard drive capped by his 33-yard scoring pass to Jadon Porter. After two weeks on the sideline, getting through an entire game may have been nearly as important as the final stat line.
Baylor Bears vs. Arizona State Sun Devils bottom line: Boley has produced the bigger TD numbers, while Baylor hopes a healthier Lagway can build on the way he finished his return against Colorado.
Baylor Bears vs. Arizona State Sun Devils Football Betting Trends
- Baylor is 3-0 straight up in their last 3 games this season.
- Additionally, the Bears have hit the over in 11 of their last 17 games as underdogs.
- Arizona State is 16-2 straight up in their last 18 games as favorites.
- The Sun Devils are 14-2 straight up in their last 16 home games.
- Also, Arizona State has covered the spread in 11 of their last 16 home games.
- Baylor has covered the spread in 3 of their last 4 games this season.
Bears Sun Devils Free Pick: Baylor +4.5
Here is my Bears Sun Devils free pick: I’m on Baylor +4.5. Arizona State deserves to be favored at home, but getting through four points matters in a matchup I expect to stay tight. I don’t need Baylor to be prettier Saturday night, which is fortunate because pretty isn’t exactly Dave Aranda’s current business model.
The Bears have shown they can live comfortably in games where field position, defense and one late possession decide things.
Arizona State can win the game. I just don’t want to lay more than four points to find out.
That’s the game state I’m betting. If Baylor can keep ASU from creating early separation, +4.5 gives me multiple ways to cash when every fourth-quarter possession starts getting expensive.
Arizona State is also returning from a bye following the London trip, while Baylor is making its first true road appearance. I’m not assigning some magical edge to either situation.
I’m taking the points and making the home favorite prove it can create margin against a team that has been perfectly willing to turn games into a fistfight.
Give me Baylor +4.5.
Today’s Week 5 NCAAF Free Pick
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Arizona State Sun Devils on X
Know before you go ‼️
Everything you need for Game 4 vs Baylor⤵️https://t.co/KVrj4JkWQh pic.twitter.com/SBPC0zHmyn
— Sun Devil Football (@ASUFootball) October 2, 2026
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