Free Peach Bowl Prediction: Tigers vs Knights
Looking for Auburn Tigers vs. UCF Knights free picks? Peach Bowl betting sees the Tigers A taking on the Knights on Monday, January 1, 2018 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia. Cappers Picks provides complimentary handicapping picks all NCAA football bowl season long so stay tuned for more FREE college football predictions like this Auburn UCF free pick.
College Football Handicapping: Peach Bowl
(10-3) Auburn Tigers vs. UCF Knights (12-0)
Date: Monday, January 1, 2018
Time: 12:30 PM ET
Venue: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, Georgia
NCAA Football Spread: Auburn -9.5
NCAA Betting Total: 66.5
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The UCF Knights have a legitimate gripe when it comes to missing out on the College Football Playoffs. And while the Auburn Tigers didn’t stand a chance after their final loss, they were in the running heading into that game.
While both teams may feel like they should’ve been in, the fact that they’re not means we get one heck of a football game in the Peach Bowl.
The Tigers opened up 8.5-point favorites, but that line has increased to -9.5 as of this writing.
Th Tigers have a huge advantage in the run game against UCF. Auburn is easily one of the most run-heavy programs when it comes to FBS squads.
The team posts 4.96 yards per carry, and the offense as a whole is 16th in runs per outing.
With all that in mind, Kerryon Johnson has a chance to be the start of this contest, but he also has a shot to open up big-play opportunities downfield. If he can average something around that 4.96 yards per carry, the Knight defense will have to focus in on the box, potentially leaving them vulnerable deep.
All that said, Johnson’s health is a bit up in the air at this juncture. He was injured during the Iron Bowl and ended up playing in the SEC title game against the Georgia Bulldogs.
Johnson put up just 44 yards on 13 carriers in that loss to Georgia, so keep an eye on his health as a key factor when betting this contest.
As much as Auburn’s success is defined by its running game, it’s also an elite defensive squad. That could pose a problem for UCF.
If the Knights want to make this a contest, they have to avoid playing at Auburn’s pace. Auburn wants to run, run, run, and then slow down UCF’s plan of attack.
That plan of attack needs to be making this one a barn burner. The Knights are just 81st in FBS in yards given up per play.
The good news for UCF is that they have the roster to combat Auburn’s defense. The Knights gave up just 12 sacks all season, and as a result, put together the nation’s top scoring average at 49.4 points per game.
They also compiled 540 yards per contest, which was good enough for fifth in FBS, and their 339.3 passing yards per outing were good enough for seventh.
NCAA Football Handicapping Trends
- Under is 7-0-1 in UCF last 8 vs. SEC.
- Over is 7-3 in AUB last 10 games overall.
- Under is 20-9-1 in AUB last 30 games on grass.
Free Peach Bowl NCAA Football Pick
This game gives you the feeling that it’s going to have one out of two outcomes, and nothing in between.
Either the Knights are going to win a close game in a shootout, or the Tigers are going to take control and win by a longshot.
4* Free NCAA Betting Pick: Auburn ATS
As much of a feel-good story as the Knights have been, this game belongs to Auburn. With a full month of recovery time for Kerryon Johnson, we should expect to see a far better performance out of him than we saw in the SEC Championship.
If the Tigers can control this game through their running attack and keep the ball out of out UCF’s hands, they should get a strong double-digit win when it’s all said and done.
Peach Bowl Free Score Prediction: Auburn 43 – UCF 23
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