Free Week 10 Prediction: Black Knights vs Falcons Odds
Looking for Army Black Knights vs. Air Force Falcons free picks? Week 10 betting sees the Black Knights taking on the Falcons Saturday November 4th at Falcon Stadium in USAF Academy, Colorado. Cappers Picks provides complimentary handicapping picks all NCAA football season long so stay tuned for more FREE college football predictions like this Army Air Force free pick.
College Football Handicapping: Week 10
(6-2) Army Black Knights vs. Air Force Falcons (4-4)
Date: Saturday, November 4th
Time: 3:30 pm EST
Venue: Falcon Stadium in USAF Academy, Colorado
NCAA Football Spread: Air Force -7.0
NCAA Betting Total: 59.5
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Army will travel west coming off a bye week after four straight wins in order to further build on a surprisingly strong season.
Air Force will hope to make a move toward joining their fellow military academy in a bowl game as the Black Knights have already secured their bid.
Army Black Knights
All facets of the game have played a role in Army’s early season success but they will try to go on the road and win at Air Force for the first time since 2005.
That is the last time Army has won at Air Force but overall in the matchup they have really struggled as well. Since 1989, the Black Knights are 3-25 SU against Air Force.
However, if there is a year where things look good for Army going into this matchup, it is this year. They have won 4 straight games overall and are using their traditional option attack to do so. They are averaging 5.7 yards per carry on the season which is good for 14th in the nation.
Also, Air Force is allowing 6.8 yards per carry on the season which is last in the nation.
That being said, Army is second to last in the nation allowing 6.1 yards per carry. And, Air Force is 32nd in the nation averaging 5.0 yards per carry.
So, it certainly appears that both teams will be able to run the ball at will. The Black Knights are off a bye so travelling to deal with the thin air out in Colorado shouldn’t be as problematic as it is for other teams.
Defense will be the key for the Black Knights. They have been able to limit opponents to 21 points per game despite having this porous run defense. If they are able to keep the Falcons in the territory of 21, they should have no problem winning the game.
Air Force Falcons
So the stats above clearly show how Air Force has struggled to stop the run. But they also show that Army has as well and Air Force could have that same opportunity to capitalize on it.
Air Force is coming off an upset road win last week over Colorado State – a game in which they entered as double digit underdogs and won by 17.
Their struggles stopping the run didn’t hurt them as they were able to force 3 turnovers. They also managed the clock very well – holding the ball for 69 percent of the game.
This will obviously be a different matchup as Colorado State is more pass focused and Army almost only runs the ball.
Army is recovering an average of 1.0 fumble per game while Air Force is only recovering 0.4 per game. This will obviously be an important thing to keep an eye on as neither team is likely to throw interceptions with their play selection being almost entirely runs.
Air Force also fumbles the ball 3.1 times per game which is 128th most in the nation while Army only fumbles it 0.4 times per game – 2nd fewest in the nation.
NCAA Football Handicapping Trends
- Over is 6-2 in Air Force’s last 8 games at home
- Over is 22-8 in Air Force’s last 30 games overall
- Over is 20-8 in Air Force’s last 28 games as a favorite.
- Road team is 12-5 ATS in the last 17 matchups
Free Week 10 NCAA Football Pick
While option offenses can be scary teams to take overs with because the clock just runs and runs all game, these two teams are miserable against the run. I think both teams will be breaking big plays and marching up and down the field.
4* Free NCAA Betting Pick: Over 59.5
The familiarity with the offense as both teams run the same one shouldn’t help either defense. This has a setup for Army pulling off the upset but history certainly is not on their side. The over should hit early in this one.
Week 10 Free Score Prediction: Air Force 40 – Army 34
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