Free Week 12 Prediction: Crimson Tide vs. Bulldogs Odds
Looking for Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs free picks? Week 12 betting sees the Crimson Tide taking on the Bulldogs on Saturday, November 16th at Davis Wade Stadium, Starkville, Mississippi. Cappers Picks provides complimentary handicapping picks all NCAA football season long so stay tuned for more FREE college football predictions like this Alabama Mississippi State Week 12 free pick.
College Football Handicapping: Week 12
(8-1) Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs (4-5)
Date: Saturday, November 16th, 2019
Time: 12:00 pm EST
Venue: Davis Wade Stadium, Starkville, Mississippi
NCAA Football Spread: Alabama -18.5
NCAA Betting Total: 61.0
Click here to view… CFB ATS Stats & NCAAF Betting Insight for this game!
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This week twelve matchup will see the Alabama Crimson Tide roll into Starkville to take on the Mississippi State Bulldogs.
The Tide are trying to pick themselves back up after a loss, while the Bulldogs just want to make it to a bowl game. Over the past ten meetings, Alabama is 10-0 against Mississippi State. This includes last years game they ended 24-0
Alabama Crimson Tide
The Tide saw their perfect season come to an end when they are outplayed by LSU last week. Surprisingly, this game was a home where Alabama almost never loses. The final score to this game was 46-41, but the score does not really show how much LSU were able to dominate.
The Crimson Tide are still ranked 5th in the College Football Playoffs poll, so if they win out and get help, there is still a chance they will find themselves in the top four.
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By far the biggest question for Alabama, is the status of their quarterback, Tua Tagovailoa. As of right now, Tua is listed as questionable with a high right ankle sprain and is basically a game-time decision.
He did manage to throw for 418 yards, four touchdowns and did have one interception, but he still did not look the same as a fully healthy Tua. Let’s also not forget that a lot of his yards passing were against the LSU defense when they were playing prevent and giving up chunk plays. He also completed only 21 of 40 passes, so not exactly the Tua we have come to know.
If Tua cannot play, Mac Jones will be the guy under center for this team. Jones played previously against Arkansas, throwing for 238 yards and three touchdowns. He had a completion percentage in this game of 81.8%, but again, it was against Arkansas.
There is no question that the Crimson Tide are going to establish the run in this game. They are only ranked 68th in the country in this category and are averaging 163.2 yards per game. Against LSU, they ran the ball just 28 times for 123 yards. This was mainly because they got down big and were forced to only throw.
Now for the defense, Alabama just got torched against the Tigers. They allowed 559 yards total and 393 passing yards, which is not usually like them. Even though they just gave up 46 points, they still rank 16th in the country allowing 18.7 points per game.
What I am more worried about is whether they will be fully focused having see their season take a turn for the worst. No question that Nick Saban will have made adjustments and therefor I think the defense is going to have a huge bounce back game.
Mississippi State Bulldogs
The Bulldogs have turned out to be a very bad football team and are in danger of not even becoming bowl eligible. At this rate, their season is going to come down to the Egg Bowl to determine if they play in December.
Mississippi State is coming off a bye and in their last game, they beat Arkansas 54-24. They have now had two weeks to prepare for this game, but Alabama is going to be mad after last week, so that does not play into the Bulldogs favor.
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This Mississippi State offense is by no means an offensive juggernaut. Take away the Arkansas game where they score 54 points, and they are average at best. The Bulldogs have had to go to two different quarterbacks this season and that is not working out well. Both guys have less than 1,100 yards passing and combined they have 14 touchdowns and 9 interceptions.
The run game is how the Bulldogs are going to keep this one close. They are averaging 217 yards per game, which ranks 24th in the country, so I expect them to run the ball a ton.
Defensively, the Bulldogs have been bad. They are allowing 30.2 points per game, which ranks 68th. Even if Tua is not playing, Mississippi State is going to give up points. If they can keep them under 35, there is a chance they will keep it close.
NCAA Football Handicapping Trends
- Under is 9-2-1 in the last 12 meetings.
- Under is 13-6 in MSST last 19 home games.
- Home team is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 meetings.
- MSST are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 home games.
Free Week 12 NCAA Football Pick
Alabama can no longer lose a game, but they also are unlikely to make it to the SEC Championship. I do not see them losing this game, so Alabama will get the road win.
4* Free NCAA Betting Pick: UNDER 61
This total feels way too high especially if Tua is unable to play. I like the Crimson Tide defense to be the difference in this game and for the under to be the play.
Week 12 Free Score Prediction: Alabama 34 – Mississippi State 17
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