Free NCAA Pick: Alabama vs. Kentucky Odds
Looking for Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Kentucky Wildcats free NCAA Week 11 picks & NCAA odds? NCAA betting sees the Crimson Tide taking on the Wildcats on Saturday, November 11th at the Kroger Field. Cappers Picks provides complimentary NCAA handicapping picks all season long including all NCAA Week 11 games so stay tuned for more FREE NCAA predictions like this Alabama Kentucky matchup.
2023 NCAAF Handicapping Analysis: Week 11
(8-1) Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Kentucky Wildcats (6-3)
Date: Saturday, November 11th
Time: 12:00 ET
Venue: Kroger Field, Lexington, KY
NCAA Week 11 ATS Betting Lines: (BET NOW!) Alabama -10.5 | Kentucky +10.5
Week 11 CFB Moneyline Odds: Alabama -437 | Kentucky +327
College Football Betting Total: O/U 48.5
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Alabama, boasting a 3-0 road record, maintains their national championship hopes. Yet, securing a win against Kentucky on the road this Saturday in Lexington is crucial.
Kentucky and Alabama did not play last season. But I’m sure if they did it would have gone the way the other 41 games have gone. UK has won twice against Bama thru the years.
They’ve been on each other’s schedule since way back in 1917.
These two last matched up in 2020, a 63-3 win for Alabama. Will that be what we can expect this week? Read on to find out.
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Alabama Crimson Tide
Even though Alabama was trailing at the half vs. LSU (28-21), they still managed to come back and pick up a 42-28 win over the Tigers.
While being favored in all of their games so far this season, Alabama is 6-3 against the spread. The team comes into the game with an average scoring margin of +14.1.
This season, Alabama holds an over/under record of 6-3.
On average, their games have produced a combined total of 49.7 points, with the typical over/under line set at 51.9 points.
Alabama Crimson Tide Stats
Alabama’s rushing attack is ranked 22nd in college football with 357 rushing attempts per game.
This has translated into an average of 163.8 rushing yards per game, placing them 59th nationally. On average, they are attempting 22.9 passes per game leading to 219.4 passing yards per contest.
In terms of scoring, they hold the 32nd position, averaging 31.9 points per game.
The Crimson Tide defense comes into the game with 30 sacks, and ranked 1st in QB hurries.
In terms of points allowed, they are giving up 17.8 points per game (60th).
When it comes to defending the pass, they are ranked 64th in the NCAA, allowing an average of 205.9 passing yards per game. Additionally, Alabama’s run defense comes in allowing 119.6 rushing yards per contest.
Alabama’s offense scored six times on the ground vs. LSU and finished with 510 yards of offense.
On third down, they went 11/14 and averaged 14.6 yards per completion on their 23 passing attempts.
Kentucky Wildcats
Kentucky is hoping to cruise to another easy win, as in their most recent game they took down Mississippi State by a score of 24-3.
Heading into this week’s matchup with Alabama, the Wildcats have been favored in six games and the underdog in two.
Their ATS mark coming into the game is 5-3.
So far this season, the average over/under line for Kentucky’s games has been 47.9 points. The Wildcats have an over/under record of 6-2 heading into this week’s game.
Kentucky Wildcats Stats
The Wildcats’ heads into the game, averaging 141.1 rushing yards per game and 5 yards per attempt.
Overall, they’re 83rd in rushing yards and 83rd in passing yards at 212.2 yards per contest. Kentucky is averaging 30 points per game, which is 43rd in the nation.
In the game against Mississippi State, the Wildcats’ offense generated 271 yards of offense, with 110 coming from rushing plays and 161 from passing plays. On third down, they converted 4 out of 12 attempts and threw two touchdowns in total.
The Wildcats defense heads into this week’s matchup with 23 sacks and sitting 1st in QB hurries.
So far, they’ve allowed 22.3 points per game (79th). In the pass defense department, they’re 114th nationally, giving up 236.6 passing yards per game.
Additionally, when it comes to defending the run, Kentucky’s defense is allowing 111.4 rushing yards per contest.
Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Kentucky Wildcats NCAA Football Betting Trends
- The Crimson Tide are 4-1 in their last five games as a favorite.
- Conversely, the Wildcats are 2-3 ATS in their last five games as an underdog.
- Also, the Crimson Tide are 4-6 ATS in their last ten road games.
- On the other side, the Wildcats have gone 6-4 across their last ten home games.
- Over the Crimson Tide’s last 3 road games, the over/under record is 2-1.
- The Wildcats’ have an over/under record of 2-1 in their last 3 games at home.
Alabama vs. Kentucky Line Movement
| Open-ML | Live-ML | Open-Spread | Live-Spread | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crimson Tide | -440 | -437 | -11.5 | -10.5 |
| Wildcats | +340 | +329 | +11.5 | +10.5 |
4* Free Week 11 NCAA Betting Prediction: Alabama -10.5
So far in this season, the Alabama offense has been impressive in moving the chains on third down. I anticipate them keeping up this efficiency against Kentucky.
I’m even more confident in my choice for the game because of a few key trends: Alabama has covered the spread in 5 of their last 6 games and has won all 7 of their last 7 games outright.
Additionally, they’ve covered the spread in 4 of their last 6 games against Kentucky and have won all 7 of their last 7 matchups with Kentucky.
Is there a QB playing better in the SEC right now than Jalen Milroe? In their win against LSU, Milroe broke a Crimson Tide quarterback record with four rushing touchdowns and 155 rushing yards.
He also had a solid passing performance, completing 15 of 23 passes for 219 yards. UK is going to have to draw up 5 game plans and hope they all work at the same time to have a chance slowing down Bama this weekend.
My pick on the spread is Alabama at -10.5. Before their recent 24-3 road victory over Mississippi State, Kentucky had suffered three consecutive losses. They’ll be back in the loss column again after this one.
I’m avoiding the total on this game.
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Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Kentucky Wildcats NCAA Betting Tweet Of The Day
You are stopping this week though… LOL
A decade of momentum and we’re not stopping now. #GoBigBlue pic.twitter.com/rzczHfvyEr
— Kentucky Football (@UKFootball) February 13, 2023
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