MTSU vs. Arkansas St. Free Week 10 Preview & Pick (Nov. 2)

NCAA Football Odds – Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders vs Arkansas State Red Wolves Free Pick & Preview

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MTSU vs ASU

Tuesday November 2 – 7:00PM
ASU Stadium – Jonesboro, Arkansas
MTSU (3-4) vs Arkansas State (3-5)
Moneyline: MTSU – 125, Arkansas State +105
Spread Favourite: MTSU -1.5
Over/Under: None currently posted
(Odds courtesy of BetUS) – BET NOW!!!

Middle Tennessee

The Blue Raiders are one of the most disappointing teams outside the BCS conferences this season.  At the beginning of the year it was a realistic possibility that this team might finish with only a single loss, wresting away the Sun Belt Championship from Troy in the process.  That seems like a long shot now and this team will have to finish strong just to qualify for a bowl game.

Entering the season MTSU QB Dwight Dasher was one of the most exciting returning players in the nation.  Before the season began he was suspended though creating a lot of excitement in advance of his return against Troy.  That excitement has quickly dissipated due to his poor play though.  Through three games he is averaging less than 200 yards passing and is only 1-2 record wise including two blowouts by Troy and Georgia Tech.  If the Blue Raiders are going to make something of this season they need him to improve his performance in a major way quickly.

MTSU is 7-2 against Arkansas State since 2001 with one of those losses occurring in Jonesboro two years ago.  The Blue Raiders have been the favourite in each one of those contests with the exception of that loss and are 7-2 ATS over the same time period  In short, when they win they cover.  With such a short spread this scenario should be the case again but can they go on the road and win in a season that hasn’t gone according to plan.

Arkansas State

The Red Wolves appear to be a team on the rise in the Sun Belt conference.  They have a dynamic passing attack and if they can pull an upset down the stretch they can may position themselves for a bowl game.  They played a very good game against Troy a few weeks ago losing by just a TD.  They tied the game with less than a minute to go but couldn’t keep the Trojans out of the end zone to force overtime.

The reason there is so much optimism is the success of QB Ryan Aplin.  Just a sophomore he has stepped in with confidence and is guiding a passing attack ranked 27th in the nation.  The Red Wolves need it too as their running game is not much to speak of – leading rusher Derek Lawson has only 310 yards on the season and Aplin is second on the team in rushing even though he has the most attempts.  He does have a nose for the end zone though with 7 rushing scores.

The Red Wolves won their last match against MTSU at ASU Stadium a couple of years ago and it wasn’t close – 31-14.  They outgained their foes by more than 100 yards in the contest playing almost mistake free football.  If they can do that again they can certainly upset the Blue Raiders as short favourites at home

The Pick: I still want to believe that Dwight Dasher is going to give us at least one supreme performance and this could be it.  Either way the Blue Raiders have enough to get the job done.

College Football Gambling Trends

Blue Raiders are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road favorite of 0.5-3.0.
Blue Raiders are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games in November.
Blue Raiders are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 conference games.
Red Wolves are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 conference games.
Red Wolves are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
Red Wolves are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
Favorite is 7-0 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
Blue Raiders are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings.

Score Prediction:  Middle Tennessee State 34 – Arkansas State 30

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