The ACC has emerged as an exciting conference this season. Even though the big names like Florida State and Miami have disappointed, the likes of Clemson and Georgia Tech have emerged as national contenders. North Carolina hasn’t been half-bad either.
Here comes Virginia Tech. After a humbling 23-3 loss to Clemson on October 1, their only defeat of the year, the Hokies have rattled off consecutive convincing wins over Miami and Wake Forest.
For a long time now, the Clemson Tigers’ performance has not been where the expectations have been set. Finally, in 2011, the Tigers are producing results befitting of their talent-laden roster.
Oklahoma (5-0) comes into this game after a huge blowout win over rival Texas in the Red River Rivalry game and now they face a Kansas (2-3) squad that has lost their last 3 games, gave up 70 points in their last game, and has a defense ranked dead last in the FBS.
What the hell, Florida State? I still can’t believe this team was ranked fifth in the preseason coaches’ poll for 2011. Here we are in Week 7 and the Seminoles have a worse record than Duke of all teams. At least FSU can pull even with the Blue Devils if they win on Saturday.
NCAAF Week 7: Florida State vs Duke
Date: Saturday, October 15, 2011
Venue: Wallace Wade Stadium, Durham NC
Broadcast: ACC/FSN Regional HD
Florida State Seminoles at Duke Blue Devils Betting Lines from Sportsbook.com
Money Line: Florida State -480, Duke +360
Spread: Florida State -13.5
Over/Under: 54.5
Florida State Seminoles (2-3)
After losing a 35-30 shootout at Wake Forest last week, the Seminoles have dropped three straight games. What’s wrong with this team? On paper, it isn’t that bad. The Seminoles actually have the country’s 10th-ranked defense and are top-25 against both the pass and the run. They’re 13th in passing, averaging 325.4 yards per game. They average 33.8 points and allow 20.6. Yet their offense fell flat when it mattered against Oklahoma and their defense couldn’t keep points off the board in consecutive losses to Clemson.
The numbers clearly show that FSU’s talent should yield a better record but this team seems to wilt in clutch situations. Turnovers have been a problem, too. E.J. Manuel and Clint Trickett combined for four interceptions last week.
Duke Blue Devils (3-2)
Duke enters Saturday’s home game headed in the opposite direction of FSU; the Blue Devils have rattled off three straight victories. With the gunslinging Sean Renfree leading the charge, Duke has ridden a strong passing game to victory. Last week, he threw for 335 yards and two scores as Duke rallied from a 10-point deficit to beat Florida International on the road.
Duke is not without its faults, however. The Blue Devils have struggled to run the ball all season, ranking 107th with just 97.8 yards per game. They’ve allowed 278.8 passing yards per game, good for 106th; and they allow 28 points per game. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
The pick:
See a pattern here? Florida State and Duke are the perfect inverse of each other. The Seminoles’ numbers suggest they’re vastly underperforming and even unlucky; the Blue Devils’ numbers suggest they’re overachieving and lucky.
The more I look at this matchup, the more I believe FSU covers the 13.5 points – easily. Duke’s offense is one-dimensional and could get bottled up by a well-rounded FSU defense. Despite the turnovers, the Seminoles have still moved the ball through the air, so they should score on Duke’s Swiss-cheese defense.
Look for Florida State to take out a month’s worth of frustration on a Duke team that may be a bit overconfident.
Florida State vs Duke prediction: Florida State 38, Duke 17
Money Line: Florida State -480
Spread: Florida State -13.5
Over/Under: OVER 54.5
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The Longhorns were blown out last week in the big Red River Rivalry game with Oklahoma giving up 55 points and this Saturday they host a Oklahoma State team that is the highest scoring team in the nation (51.4 ppg) and have the nation’s 2nd ranked passing offense (431.2 passing yards per game).
This Big 12 rivalry is known as the “Battle of the Brazos” and this game should have a ton of fireworks since Baylor ranks 4th in the nation in scoring and Texas A&M ranks 18th.
Kansas State (5-0) is off to their best start in 11 years and look to snap their 5-game losing streak to a Texas Tech (4-1) team that, shocker, has one of the best passing offenses ranked 6th in the nation in passing yards per game.
Miami almost pulled off a major statement win at Virginia Tech last week but fell just short, losing a 38-35 heartbreaker. Next up, the ’Canes face another difficult test on the road against a 5-1 North Carolina team. Was last week as close as it gets for Miami or was it a preview of a triumph to come this week?
Kansas State (4-0) is ranked for the first time in 4 seasons and while they are coming off an upset win last week they are still a home underdog to a Missouri (2-2) team that they have lost to 5 straight times.
The Aggies are coming off 2 tough losses to ranked teams and they only lost those games by a combined 5 points. Texas Tech has started the season well winning their first 4 games, but they have yet to play a ranked team and in their last 2 wins their defense has struggled giving up an average of 34 points.
Oklahoma State has won 6 of their last 7 games against Kansas and it is likely it will be 7 of 8 game after this Saturday since OSU is undefeated and has the nation’s 2nd ranked passing offense and ranks 6th in the nation in scoring.
The HUGE Red River Rivalry game has BCS implications this season with Texas and Oklahoma at 4-0 and it is only the 2nd time in the last 7 years where both teams are undefeated. The Sooners have played a much tougher schedule, but Texas is playing with a lot of confidence and their defense has been playing well.
Miami versus Virginia Tech this weekend feels like a must-win for both teams. The Hurricanes want to show they can still contend for the ACC title; Virginia Tech can’t lose another game if it wants to fancy itself as part of the national title discussion at all. Can the Hokies bounce back after betting seriously exposed by Clemson last week?
Ouch, Florida State. Wasn’t this the fifth-ranked team in the nation entering the start of 2011? Instead, the disappointing Seminoles find themselves 2-2 entering a Week-6 battle with Wake Forest. Hard to believe the Demon Deacons have a superior record.
It appears no one’s sleeping on Georgia Tech anymore. Last week’s 45-35 win over N.C. State vaulted the Yellow Jackets to the No. 13 national ranking. This week, they’ll try to break into the top 10 against a Maryland team desperate for a big conference-game win.
