Cain Velasquez vs. Junior dos Santos – Cappers Picks Blog

UFC 166 Preview and Picks

The UFC stars will be on display once again this Saturday when UFC 166 takes place in Houston, Texas. A trilogy bout for the Heavyweight title between Cain Velazquez and Junior dos Santos headlines one of the best cards of the year – let’s take a look.

UFC 166: Velasquez vs. Dos Santos 3
Date: October 19, 2013
Time: 10pm ET/7pm PT
Location: Toyota Center, Houston, Texas
Broadcast: Pay-per-view

Main Card (on Pay-Per-View):

Cain Velasquez (12-1): -200
Junior dos Santos (16-2): +160

UFC Odds From Bovada

Cain Velazquez and Junior dos Santos are in a class by themselves when it comes to Heavyweights in mixed martial arts – there are simply the best on the planet. They will fight for the third time in two years to determine the absolute top dog in the sport. Each brings an unmatched set of strengths to the Octagon Saturday – the trick will be to lure their opponent into their type of fight.

The Champ Cain Velazquez is the best wrestler in the Heavyweight Division – his takedowns, takedown defense and ground control are like no other. He also has arguably the best cardio of any fighter on the UFC roster today and an ever-emerging striking game as demonstrated in his last fight with dos Santos.

Junior dos Santos will be looking to reclaim what he thinks is his – the Heavyweight belt Saturday. He is the most dominant boxer in the division – technically sound on his feet with power to spare. Apparently he has a jiu-jitsu game as well but we have never seen that aspect of his game. Like Velazquez, dos Santos is supremely conditioned and ready to go five rounds Saturday.

This bout is pretty tough to call but looking at the last fight, I have to lean Velazquez’s way. He beat dos Santos in absolutely every aspect of that fight and even had the edge in the standup. Velazquez proved that he was a terrific student in that fight and is leaps-and-bounds ahead of the fighter that lost to dos Santos in their first fight. Constant pressure, elite wrestling and adequate striking earns Cain Velazquez the decision win Saturday.

Pick: Cain Velazquez -200

Daniel Cormier (12-0): -600
Roy Nelson (19-8): +400

Undefeated Daniel Cormier puts his streak on the line against the guy that gives fat guys reason to get up in the morning – Roy Nelson. This fight has all the makings of Fight of the Night for sure – two huge grappling practitioners with lethal standup. It could be a classic.

Cormier was an elite college wrestler who added submissions and a terrific standup game to his repertoire. He holds wins over Josh Barnett, Antonio Silva and most recently Frank Mir and looks poised to take that next step toward heavyweight superstardom.

Roy Nelson is a jiu-jitsu Black Belt with and absolutely insane chin and an ability to stand and bang with anyone. He is a tough out for anyone and a good test for a fighter trying to climb the ladder in the UFC.

Cormier is a huge favorite here – he is a B+ fighter while Nelson is a C+/B- fighter. I have to take the all around game of Cormier in this one but make this pick with some reservations. All Nelson needs is one clean shot!

Pick: Daniel Cormier -600

Gilbert Melendez (21-3): -700
Diego Sanchez (24-5): +450

Gilbert Melendez will step into the UFC Octagon for just the second time Saturday – the first being a split decision loss to Ben Henderson. His opponent Saturday is Diego Sanchez – a recent controversial winner against Takanori Gomi at UFC on FUEL 8.

Melendez is an absolutely elite level Lightweight – speed, cardio, wrestling and striking are all solid parts of his game. Melendez has no holes! Sanchez is a tough guy but is a tier or two below Melendez in absolutely every aspect of this fight. [ad-3573245]

Melendez fancies himself a title contender and proves that he is worthy for a shot Saturday!

Pick: Gilbert Melendez -700

Gabriel Gonzaga (15-7): +160
Shawn Jordan (15-4): -200

Another Heavyweight scrap is on tap for the Main Card at UFC 166 when Gabriel Gonzaga takes on striker Shawn Jordan. Gonzaga has had his issues in the UFC in the past but is 3-1 in his recent stint here.

Gonzaga is head-and shoulders above Jordan in terms of ground game and I think that is precisely where this fight ends up – on the mat. Jordan is an OK striker as is Gonzaga but ultimately this fight will be determined by work on the ground. Jordan is a fish out of water in this one!

Pick: Gabriel Gonzaga +160

John Dodson (15-6): -350
Darrell Montague (13-2): +250

Flyweights kick off the Main Card at UFC 166 when one of the best in the world Darrell Montague finally makes his long-awaited Octagon debut. His opponent – another top tier Flyweight John Dodson who has already fought and lost to Demetrious Johnson for the UFC title.

Dodson is one tough dude, able to make anyone’s debut in the UFC less-than-hospitable. Dodson is too fast, too powerful and too hungry to get another title shot to be denied in this one.

Pick: John Dodson -350

Preliminary Card (on Fox Sports 1):

Tim Boetsch (16-6): -170 vs. CB Dolloway (13-4): +140
Pick: Tim Boetsch -170

Nate Marquardt (32-12-2): +145 vs. Hector Lombard (32-4-1): -175
Pick: Nate Marquardt +145

Sarah Kaufman (15-2): -220 vs. Jessica Eye (10-1): +175
Pick: Sarah Kaufman -220

George Sotiropoulos (14-5): +135 vs. KJ Noons (11-7): -165
Pick: KJ Noons -165

Preliminary Card (on Facebook):

TJ Waldburger (16-7): +135 vs. Adlan Amagov (12-2-1): -165
Pick: TJ Waldburger +135

Tony Ferguson (13-3): -400 vs. Mike Rio (9-2): +300
Pick: Tony Ferguson -400

Jeremy Larsen (8-4): +160 vs. Andre Fili (12-1): -200
Pick: Andre Fili -200

Dustin Pague (11-8): +130 vs. Kyoji Horiguchi (11-1): -160
Pick: Kyoji Horiguchi -160

CLICK HERE NOW to place a bet on UFC 166 At Bovada!

UFC on FOX 1: Velasquez vs. Dos Santos
Date/Time: November 12, 2011, 9pm ET/6pm PT
Location: Honda Center, Anaheim, California
Broadcast: FOX

Cain Velasquez (9-0-0): -165
Junior dos Santos (13-1-0): +145

What a way to usher in a new era of MMA! The Heavyweight Title is on the line on Saturday night and the fight will be broadcast on FOX for the whole world to see. Junior Dos Santos brings his elite level striking to the Octagon to take on the top notch wrestling ability of Champion Cain Velasquez. For the Challenger, his take down defense will be challenged and for the Champion, his chin will certainly be tested.

Cain Velasquez is a dominant wrestler with heavy hands and some of the best cardio in the Heavyweight division. His takedowns and ground control are some of the best that the Heavyweight division has ever seen. Although he is not scared to stand and trade, Velasquez will try to get this fight to the ground. The fact is that Cain has never faced anyone with the striking ability of Junior Dos Santos.

Junior Dos Santos is another fighter that possesses amazing conditioning. He is one of the most feared strikers in the Heavyweight division. Dos Santos has that rare combination of technical and powerful striking that is nearly impossible to defend. He has won eight straight fights, six by strikes against top notch competition. What’s lost in Junior’s striking prowess is the fact that he owns a Brown Belt in jiu-jitsu under Antonio Rodrigo Noguiera. Dos Santos is a handful anywhere this fight happens to go.

Betting Prediction: Cain Velasquez will have to get this fight to the ground – there is no way that he wants to enter into a striking battle with Junior Dos Santos. The danger with that plan is the fact that Dos Santos is one of the most accurate strikers in the game. Junior will know that Velasquez is coming and should be able to keep him at bay with a strong jab. Dos Santos has worked his takedown defense extensively with one of the best camps on the planet – Team Black House that features Anderson Silva, José Aldo, Lyoto Machida, Antônio Rogério Nogueira, Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira, and former Chute Boxe Academy fighter Antonio “Nino” Schembri. There is no way that Velasquez could have improved his ability to get hit by a truck in his training camp! Punching prowess wins over grappling prowess in this one!

Pick: Junior Dos Santos +145

Clay Guida (28-11-0): +210 vs. Benson Henderson (14-2-0): -250

How does this Lightweight fight not make it on National Television? Clay Guida, winner of four straight fights takes on Ben Henderson, the former WEC standout who has been knocking on the door of the UFC Lightweight title since his arrival with the organization. Guida is quick, tough and as relentless as they come. The problem is that Henderson is better in all of those aspects of MMA. Henderson has the speed, the strength and heart to give the unflappable Guida fits. In a tremendous fight, Henderson will prove that he is indeed the next challenger for the UFC Lightweight title. [ad-3573245]

Pick: Ben Henderson -250

Norifumi ‘KID’ Yamamoto (18-4-0): -360 vs. Darren Uyenoyama (6-3-0): +300

Darren Uyenoyama makes his UFC debut against a legend in the sport and former top pound for pound fighter on the planet, Norifumi ‘KID’ Yamamoto. Yamamoto may be long in the tooth and the fact remains that he has only won once in 4 plus years. But he should be able to defeat the inexperienced Uyenoyama on Saturday – if he doesn’t; it is time to hang up the boots!

Pick: Norifumi ‘KID’ Yamamoto -360

Cub Swanson (15-4-0): +130 vs. Ricardo Lamas (10-2-0): -150

Cub Swanson hasn’t been all that impressive lately losing two of his last four fights. But Swanson’s experience and superior ground game will be too much for Lamas to handle.

Pick: Cub Swanson +130

Pablo Garza (11-1-0): +255 vs. Dustin Poirier (10-1-0): -305

A very good Featherweight bout comes our way on Saturday. Both Pablo Garza and Dustin Poirier have lost just once in their MMA careers. Poirier is a handful and could elevate himself to the elite class of Featherweight fighters before too long. Poirier’s ground game will be the difference in this one in a very good fight.

Pick: Dustin Poirier -305

Clay Harvison (9-3-0): +230 vs. DaMarques Johnson (12-9-0): -275

Two former The Ultimate Fighter alums do battle on Saturday. I have never been a fan of Johnson and his 12-9 record. Harvison is in a good position to pull the upset in this one. Take the underdog!

Pick: Clay Harvison +230

Mackens Semerzier (6-3-0): -115 vs. Robert Peralta (15-3-0): -105

In Featherweight action, Robert Peralta puts an eight fight win streak on the line against a rather inexperienced Mackens Semerzier. Peralta makes it nine in a row on Saturday!

Pick: Robert Peralta -105

Mike Pierce (12-4-0): -320 vs. Paul Bradley (18-3-0): +270

These two fighters have fought once before with Pierce winning. Pierce is simply the better fighter and should be able to duplicate his previous success against Bradley.

Pick: Mike Pierce -320

Aaron Rosa (16-4-0): -145 vs. Matt Lucas (14-2-0): +125

Matt Lucas makes his UFC debut in Heavyweight action. Lucas is a beast and should be able to handle Rosa in this one.

Pick: Matt Lucas +125

Alex “Bruce Leroy” Caceres (5-4-0): +215 vs. Cole Escovedo (17-8-0): -255

In Bantamweight action, The Ultimate Fighter alum Alex Caceres moves down a weight class to try to save his employment in the UFC. Don’t bet on it happening against a decent all around fighter, Cole Escovedo.

Pick: Cole Escovedo -255