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Super Bowl Handicapping Tips


The Super Bowl is the most wagered on sporting event in the country by a landslide. Sportsbooks not only offer selections on the side and total, but also on a wide variety of player, team, and event props. There are a number of ways to approach wagering in this game than just on one side and/or one total. With the side and total already being released, as well as some prop bets, it is critical to know how to start attacking these selections.

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The first thing I noticed was that the spread was released at Pittsburgh -7, right around where I thought it would be. The sharp bettors hammered it down to -6.5 right away. However, the line was then bet back up but appears to be holding constant at 6.5. Essentially the sharp bettors were hammering Pittsburgh at -6.5 and Arizona at +7. This happened because these people know that 7 points is such a critical line in football. They put themselves in a positive expectation situation, holding tickets that could potentially give themselves a profit without creating much risk. Almost all of the bettors who did this make a considerable income from just gambling and now how the lines will move to take advantage of such situations. So how can you take advantage of this theory?

The line seems to have begun settling at -6.5, but there are several books still offering -7. The best thing to do is to take Arizona with as little juice as possible, meaning try to find the Cardinals at +7 -105 or better. Then find Pittsburgh -6.5 with as little as juice as possible. Another option would be to take Pittsburgh at -6.5 then buy a half point and get Arizona at +7.5. You will have extra juice with the Cardinals, but if the Steelers win by a touchdown, then you will have a very nice pay day. Overall, the line will probably jump between 6.5 and 7 for the next two weeks. If you like Arizona then grab them whenever they are at +7 with as little juice as possible. The juice probably won’t go much lower than +7 -105. The same holds true for Pittsburgh. If the Steelers are your choice then take them at -6.5 -105 when it becomes available.

Another wager to take now is Arizona on the moneyline if that option is appealing. Most bettors pound the underdog on the moneyline in the Super Bowl, much less than the favorite. Right now, Arizona is available at around +235, while Pittsburgh is -275. The Cardinals price will fall a considerable amount by game time, just like the New York Giants moneyline price did last season. Arizona may fall down to just a +205-+210 underdog by next Sunday.

Proposition wagers are also extremely popular to sharp and square bettors alike. Try to make bets on props as soon as they get released, as sharp bettors will hammer the better ones until game time, thus reducing the payout. Stay away from wagers like which side the coin toss will come out on, as these selections offer negative expectation situations with juice of -115 on each side. Try to determine how the game will develop and progress, then make proposition wagers accordingly. With the amount of these selections offered by sportsbooks, they release some very weak lines on certain props. Savvy bettors will take advantage of these mistakes and hammer them accordingly.

These are just a few of the ways to have a profitable Super Bowl betting experience. Try to be creative and smart, while staying away from negative expectation situations. Shop around and find the best lines available depending on which side/total is most appealing.


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Evan uses a variety of techniques when handicapping games which has enabled him to be one of the top football and handicappers on the internet.!


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