NCAAF: SATURDAY AFTERNOON DELIGHT
Two great afternoon games between Alabama and LSU, plus Penn State and Iowa, get you ready for the big nighttime clash between Texas Tech and Oklahoma State.
Alabama (-3.5) at LSU 3:30 pm ET
Alabama head coach Nick Saban is credited with building the foundation on which LSU has used to become a prominent national power year-in and year-out.
Ironically, on Saturday, it is the program that he once built that has a chance to ruin his current team’s nation title hopes. Ranked #1, the Crimson Tide travel to Baton Rouge and have been installed as a 3-1/2 point favorite.
It hasn’t been the kind of year most LSU fans would have envisioned, giving up 103 total points in two recent losses to Florida and Georgia. A few of the big plays given up against Florida were dismissed, being somewhat fluky in nature and on the road.
Giving up 52 to Georgia at Tiger Stadium two weeks ago was a different matter. Granted LSU lost oodles of talent from last season, however the biggest loss is turning out to be Bo Pelini taking the Nebraska job. The structure of the defense seems out of sorts, with players taking bad angles on tackles and covering receivers.
Though Jarrett Lee will probably be a very good quarterback in the future, the loss of Ryan Perrilloux has hurt the team. The Tigers are only 5-17 ATS in November games in Bayou country.
Sporting a 9-0 record, this could be the last chance of an Alabama loss before the SEC title game. This is their last road game and they have very winnable home games with Mississippi State and hated rival Auburn.
What’s arresting about Nick Saban’s squad is how they have played in big games. Against what would be considered lesser opponents, the Tide seldom played four quarters and cruised to a 6-0 record but just 3-3 ATS.
In the three biggest moments of the season against Clemson, Georgia and Tennessee, they had three easy wins and covers. Those wins were all away from home and this week’s newest big game challenge is in Baton Rouge with Bama 6-1-1 ATS on the SEC road the last two seasons.
The most vilified man in the state of Louisiana is Saban. The national championship he brought to LSU was wonderful, and nobody begrudged moving to the NFL, but to come back to the same conference and coach a team in the same division, that makes him an evil villain in the Bayou. Alabama arrives in Baton Rouge 8-2 ATS playing a team with a winning home record.
It seems something is in the water in the South as this is another outlandish rivalry with the visiting team 9-1-2 ATS since 1996.
CFB Free Prediction: – Alabama covers
Penn State (-7.5) at Iowa 3:30 pm ET
Penn State is currently in the least enviable position in the BCS standings, third. At #3, the Nittany Lions need help from anyone playing Alabama & Texas Tech the rest of the way if they hope to secure a national title game berth.
Of course, there’s that little factor of having to take care of their own business too. In looking at Penn State’s schedule, the most difficult remaining game comes Saturday, in Iowa City. Joe Pa’s team is a 7-1/2 point road favorite, and frighteningly backed by 83% of bettors. Watch out.
Most pundits assume Penn State’s road to an undefeated season is pretty much a given at this juncture, however it would be foolish, especially in Upset-tember. The Nittany Lions handled their first bit of true adversity at Ohio State, having to come from behind without their starting quarterback.
Senior quarterback Daryll Clark sustained a concussion in the third quarter against Ohio State but should be ready for Iowa. Penn State backers need to know their team is 2-11 ATS after allowing less than 10 points and when their next game is on the road.
Outside of Penn State, the grittiest team in the Big Ten since October has been Iowa. They out-played Michigan State and Illinois on the road, losing late in those games. They whipped up on Indiana and Wisconsin and the defense has allowed more than 22 points just once this season.
On offense, the quarterback situation is handled game by game, meaning coach Kirk Ferentz leans on running back Shonn Greene. Since 2004, the Hawkeyes are 8-4-1 ATS as home dogs.
Iowa is 6-2 SU and ATS against Penn State recently. This Big Ten series has been fraught with unusual circumstances with the underdog a rock solid 6-2 ATS, including four outright upsets.
CFB Free Prediction: – Iowa covers
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