NFL: ROMO’S RETURN AFFECTS PROP
Dallas Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo is expected to return from his finger injury Sunday night at the Washington Redskins and it could have a big effect on our Primetime Prop.
If you back the winning selection for the “Total Points Scored” prop in this game and either team wins by double digit points, winning bets will be doubled up to $100.00 for this specific prop.
Dallas (5-4) is currently a 1 ½-point favorite, but the chance of the Cowboys winning by double digits increases dramatically with Romo in the lineup.
After all, Dallas averaged over 29 PPG in the first six games of the year when Romo was at the helm. That number plummeted to under 14 PPG in the three started by Brad Johnson.
Dallas also won half of Romo’s starts by nine points or more, including road wins at Green Bay and Cleveland, which bodes well for this Primetime Prop. It is less likely that Washington (6-3) will win by double digits as their biggest win of the year was just eight points and their six wins have come at an average margin of just 5.2 points.
The Over/Under in points scored for this game is set at 43.5, so it makes sense that the favorite in the Total Points Scored prop is 43-49 at 5:2 odds. 50-56 is next at 3:1 and that makes sense if you feel the Cowboys offense can quickly revert back to their earlier form.
Third in line for the Total Points Scored prop is 36-42 at 7:2. Washington only averages 19 PPG overall and only a little over 15 PPG in the last four, so this point range provides a lot of value especially with the game in Washington.
In terms of the game spread, there is more good injury news for Dallas as tight end Jason Witten is expected to play. Witten provides a great compliment to receivers Terrell Owens and Roy Williams. This is Romo’s first opportunity to play with Williams since he was acquired from Detroit.
Having three great targets, in addition to Romo, means Washington can’t concentrate too much on running back Marion Barber. Expect Barber to have success even though he must carry a full load with rookie Felix Jones likely out again.
The big question for Washington is whether running back Clinton Portis can play through his MCL injury. Portis is the NFL’s leading rusher and while the Skins do have capable backups like Ladell Betts and Shaun Alexander, his loss would really hamper the team. Note that Washington has failed to cover their last three home games and lost two of them straight-up (Pittsburgh and St. Louis).
This is a much bigger game for Dallas as they trail Washington by one game and already lost their first meeting in Dallas, 26-24 in late September. Coach Wade Phillips will really be on the hot seat with a loss as it could cost them a playoff spot, and expectations are high with Romo back.
Either way, expect a great game that could be the best of the entire 16 game docket.
